It would have been hard for any indifferent Australians to miss Donald Trump's inauguration as the forty-fifth president of the United States. It got saturation media coverage here and he is now the resident of the oval office and all the power of that office rests in his hands.
His first act was to sign an executive order to prevent any additional spending on aspects of Obamacare that are not yet in place. He has signalled that this health system will be repealed and replaced with a Republican model that at present lacks even a basic planning structure. Health cover for poorer Americans seems likely to recede.
On the campaign trail, Trump threatened to review American defence commitments with the rest of the world. America underpins NATO and that was the guarantee of member countries combined strength against a Soviet Union attack during the years of the cold war. Many have cut back on their defence spending and a newly aggressive Russia is threatening Ukraine and the Baltic states. It also raises a question mark over our mutual status with America under the ANZUS pact.
Another danger area is trade. Trump seems to be taking America into a protectionist stance. Trump has made it clear that he considers present and future free trade treaties harmful to American interests and he may employ tariffs to balance trade in Americas favour. There is a possibility that he may spark a trading war and that could have dire consequences for both Mexico and China. In the distant past, trade wars have often been the precursor of shooting wars.
We await the real intentions of this Trump presidency to emerge. On the campaign trail the rhetoric was fractured and unreadable and America voted a man into office completely lacking a cohesive plan for how he would govern. The danger is that - unlike the Westminster system - the presidency delivers almost unlimited power for the full term of office and almost the only way to remove a president is by impeachment. The Westminster system has many ways to dispose of a prime minister and appoint a replacement with the minimum change to the governing process.
In the event that this Trump presidency became a disaster the problem is compounded because his political party has a majority in both the houses of government, and therefore a successful impeachment is unlikely. The presidential system in place in America has seen fit to hand the levers of power to a president totally lacking a cohesive action plan presented in the run up to the vote. He is assured of office - for four long years !
Here in Australia the issue of replacing the monarchy as head of state by changing to a presidential system has been bubbling away under the surface. When it went to a referendum, the result was a marginal 55/45 decision to retain the monarchy, but the framing of the question did not allow for a direct vote by the people. The president would have been selected by the parliamentarians - and that was unacceptable to most people.
Our monarch is approaching extreme old age and eventually the issue of monarchy or presidency will again rise to the surface. How this Trump presidency resonates will have a direct bearing on that decision. Many presidential head of state posts are merely ceremonial functions lacking in executive power and this was envisaged for an Australian presidency, but we have also seen ambitious office holders launch revolutions to gain executive power in other countries.
How events in America unfold could well sway the eventual monarchy/presidential question here in Australia.
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