Nature Abhors A Vacuum !

There is no doubt that president Donald Trump is taking America on an isolationist journey and that many of the promises made on the campaign trail are now under way.  He has signed an order to make a massive fence along the Mexican border a reality.  Obamacare will suffer a funds strangulation rather than a sudden end and many citizens will see their health cover slowly evaporate. What is now in doubt is the direction from above which will influence how the massive American military machine reacts to world events.

In Europe and Asia the Americans have standing armies based on foreign soil as part of NATO defence agreements and to counter tensions between neighbours.  It has been American leadership that has moved these pieces on the world Chess board to deploy American power since the end of the second world war.  Where the United Nations has provided military intervention in neighbourly clashes it is usually US forces that provide the hardware backbone of the interventionist force.

We now live in a very dangerous world.  As recently as a month ago the US reaction to events between countries was very predictable.  It was spelt out at United Nations conferences and the subject of written agreements between many countries.  The decisions of the US president trickled down through the US Chiefs of Staff to individual field commanders who controlled the men, ships and planes that delivered American military power.

At this moment, nobody can accurately predict how Donald Trump would react to any given world event.  He is signalling a completely new approach to military relationships and yet at this stage it lacks clarity.   It seems to be work in progress in the president's mind, and as a result the leaders of many countries reliant on US protection are very edgy and unsure what the future holds.

Over the centuries the leadership of the world has changed hands many times.  In the 1600's the Spanish empire was paramount and the Spanish conquered and held most of South America and the Caribbean .  The French, Dutch and Portuguese  were also dominant, but the British came to rule the world with the might of the massive British Empire.  British power faded under the costs of the two world wars and the baton passed to America, who has held it ever since.

Power comes at a cost - of both blood and treasure.  Force is never applied evenly or fairly and often maintaining world order can involve using fear as a weapon.  The most powerful country in the world certainly uses trade to its advantage, backed by that military power.

The fact that America seems to be voluntarily stepping back from that fulcrum of world leadership creates a dangerous vacuum.   It is said that nature abhors a vacuum and it is certain that another nation will seek to fill that vacant slot.   Whether that is the Russians or the Chinese - or another with ambition and the ability to flex its muscles - awaits to be seen.

The danger is that the US has the most powerful military might on this planet and whether those heading field command accept that retreat is questionable.  Should the military question the presidents sanity a military coup would not be out of the question.  It has happened in lesser nations.

Such is the danger when the direction in which an entire nation is heading rests entirely in the mind of a single individual !