Tuesday, 31 January 2017

Confusion !

It must be remembered that President Donald Trump is primarily a showman business entrepreneur and a public relations guru.  He put those skills together when he set out to create the image that swept him into office in his part time job of heading up the American nation for a four year spell.

Hix executive order suspends admission to the US of all refugees for 120 days and barred for 90 days the entry of any citizen from Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Sudan, Libya and Somalia has thrown the world into confusion, but given great satisfaction to the red neck voters who delivered him the presidency.

Already, the ban has been softened by a Federal judge who issued an emergency stay that temporarily blocks the government from sending back out of the country people who have landed at US airports with valid entry visas.

At this stage the executive order lacks clarity and it seems to apply equally to  US legal residents from the named countries who hold valid green cards allowing them to work in the United States. Those out of the country as the time this executive order came into force may not be able to return.

This is a very selective ban and it does not apply to many Muslim majority nations, some of which have strong links to the Islamic State insurgency  in Syria and Iraq.   Critics will suggest that these seem carefully selected to protect Trump business interests in those countries.

Australia is relieved to learn that the plan to settle those refugees housed on Nauru and Manus island negotiated with the Obama presidency in an exchange gesture for refugees in the United States being accepted into Australia still stands.   On the other hand, a Labor Senator with an Iranian background may not be able to gain entry into the US even if he is travelling there on parliamentary business.

The ban is a devastating blow to the world airline industry.  Airlines risk the danger of being stuck with the costs if passengers are refused entry once they reach an American airport and passport checks are now rigorously delving into entry stamps for those named countries subjected to the ban. This lack of clarity has many officials convinced that mere travel to a banned nation would be sufficient for entry to be denied.

There has been a strong reaction to the ban in the United States.  Big crowds have congregated at airports to protest that ordinary family refugees are being tarred with the terrorist brush and that the embargo on refugees contradicts the mantra that the US is a nation that traditionally throws open its doors to the world.   The Statue of Liberty and Ellis Island are testimonials that it was the melting pot of world migration that created the United States.

It is probably inevitable that once these time strictures expire a more relaxed regime will be put in place and entry restrictions will aim on a more targetted basis.   President Trump has probably done his image more good than harm by this extreme measure.  More of the voters who put him into office will approve of the measure, and the people who find him repulsive are unlikely to change their opinion, nomatter what he does.    This move is simply shoring up support for a second term in four years time.

Donald Trump made his fortune by the same methods that great circuses wowed the people a century ago.   He provides an entertaining spectacle for the masses and that means he must deliver the unexpected.   What is uncertain is if he can manage that consistently over this next four year period without bringing the economy to a disaster.  It also means that whoever gains the Presidency after  the Trump years will find it a hard act to follow !


Monday, 30 January 2017

WMD Threat !

So far, the world has kept the lid on weapons of mass destruction being used to decimate civilian populations during wars.  Poison gas was used on the battlefields of the first world war and there was fear it would be dropped on cities in later wars, but thankfully that did not happen.

The ultimate WMD is of course the use of nuclear weapons.  During the years of the cold war both the Soviet Union and the western powers had enough atom bombs to wipe out their respective populations many times over.   The doctrine of MAD - standing for "Mutually Assured Destruction " was the nightmare that kept fingers off the firing button.

That threat of a sudden and unprovoked attack by one country on another still exists and the ability to incapacitate the entire civilian population to prevent a response must be tempting.  Few realise how close that came to reality in the second world war because the details have been closely hidden away by military censors for fear of alarming the public.

The Japanese army setup a medical  weapons development unit in occupied Chinese territory during the early days of the second world war and used local people and prisoners of war as guinea pigs.  They were deliberately infected with various diseases and the aim was to develop a means of spreading death quickly on great numbers of people.   The target the Japanese had in mind was the United States civilian population.

The disease that gained the major hope of success was Bubonic Plague.   In the fourteenth century it had ravaged Europe and killed a third of the population.  Military planners were looking for a way of introducing it into the United States cities with the hope of forcing America out of the war.  It was known that this disease was spread by fleas and that rats were the vehicle to disperse these fleas across a civilian population.

The method of delivery posed a problem.  The Japanese developed a special bomb that could safely distribute infected fleas but they doubted that their aircraft carriers could approach to launch a bombing raid without suffering major losses.  Naval architects were ordered to design submersible aircraft carriers.

This seemed an impossible task, but a clever design entailed joining two existing submarines side by side to enable a cylindrical aircraft hanger to be posited between the hulls.  This would contain three single engine seaplanes, each capable of taking a single bomb on a mission to an American city.  An order was placed for nineteen of such vessels, and six were constructed and declared operational before the war ended with a Japanese surrender.

This "Flea Bomb "attack never materialized.   The Japanese thought that provoking the Americans at that later stage of the war unwise and when the Americans discovered these "submersible aircraft carriers " they were intent on keeping the idea from the Russians and clamped a security hold on all forms of information.

You can be certain that somewhere in the military of most countries there exists today a laboratory examining the use of disease as a war weapon, and trying to devise a means of safeguarding their own population from such an attack by an enemy.    You can also be assured that the potential of poison gas has not been fully discarded.

Perhaps that it is well that all this is not general knowledge.   It would be enough to give most people a bad case of insomnia !

Sunday, 29 January 2017

Violent Juvenile Criminals !

A few days ago the citizens of Melbourne got a taste of what had been brewing in their juvenile justice system.   Fifteen inmates from Malmsbury Youth Justice centre broke free and armed with iron bars stopped traffic on a main road to hijack cars.  Families were bashed if they showed any resistance and other drivers faced extreme danger as the stolen vehicles made high speed escapes pursued by police.  Other escapees broke into homes and generally dispensed mayhem in the community.

Pressure is building to explosion point here in the juvenile justice system in New South Wales.  The prison system is dubbed "the university of crime " and we try and separate young offenders from the old lags by keeping them in separate facilities.  Keeping order is based on incentives.   It is necessary to have a harsher facility to which those attacking officers or other prisoners will serve time, and this needs to be grim to be a deterrent.

In New South Wales we had Cobham serving the general juvenile prison population and Chisholm as the place to send violent offenders needing harsher discipline.  Chisholm has now been closed and there is no way to separate those prone to violence from others who are serving their sentence in a moderate manner.   The incentive for good behaviour no longer exists.

Unfortunately any form of discipline is offensive to the eyes of gentle people.  We were shocked to see pictures of a youth restrained in a Northern Territory juvenile prison and one of the reasons that Chisholm was closed was because of horror at a report that an inmate had been isolated in his cell for 166 days.  In the eyes of many people this is verging on torture.

The good citizens who have never had the experience of visiting a juvenile prison or knowing any of its inmates would not even begin to understand the level of depravity and violence that exists amongst the youth of today.   The custodians who need to work with these inmates are in constant danger of assault and time taken to recover from injuries leads to constant staffing problems.

The system has to deal with a nucleus of hard core troublemakers with strong leadership qualities. They attract followers like iron filings to a magnet and it is necessary to separate them to prevent the formation of gangs.  Many of these are so damaged psychologically by their earlier life that it is inevitable that they will go on to lead a life of violent crime.   The juvenile justice system is the only safeguard preventing them from wreaking havoc on an unsuspecting public.

Whenever a story about a juvenile receiving harsh treatment reaches the public it engenders a high degree of sympathy and a call for remedial action.  The public need to know that part of the custodians struggle is to prevent damage to other detainees who may be drawn into supporting violence and who may be able to return to their families and live a productive life.  Some form of separation and restraint is necessary for that to happen.

The sticking point is - to what degree is discipline acceptable and here opinion is divided to an impossible degree.  Really violent offenders are often kept in their cell for most of the day and there is a need for a number of warders to control them when they are released for exercise.   The purpose of juvenile justice facilities is rehabilitation, but there are some prisoners who are past the point of no return and keeping them is simply the passage of time before they will be released to wreak havoc on society.

That Victorian breakout is a warning to New South Wales of what the future portends unless we can get the balance right in the juvenile justice system.

Saturday, 28 January 2017

Nature Abhors A Vacuum !

There is no doubt that president Donald Trump is taking America on an isolationist journey and that many of the promises made on the campaign trail are now under way.  He has signed an order to make a massive fence along the Mexican border a reality.  Obamacare will suffer a funds strangulation rather than a sudden end and many citizens will see their health cover slowly evaporate. What is now in doubt is the direction from above which will influence how the massive American military machine reacts to world events.

In Europe and Asia the Americans have standing armies based on foreign soil as part of NATO defence agreements and to counter tensions between neighbours.  It has been American leadership that has moved these pieces on the world Chess board to deploy American power since the end of the second world war.  Where the United Nations has provided military intervention in neighbourly clashes it is usually US forces that provide the hardware backbone of the interventionist force.

We now live in a very dangerous world.  As recently as a month ago the US reaction to events between countries was very predictable.  It was spelt out at United Nations conferences and the subject of written agreements between many countries.  The decisions of the US president trickled down through the US Chiefs of Staff to individual field commanders who controlled the men, ships and planes that delivered American military power.

At this moment, nobody can accurately predict how Donald Trump would react to any given world event.  He is signalling a completely new approach to military relationships and yet at this stage it lacks clarity.   It seems to be work in progress in the president's mind, and as a result the leaders of many countries reliant on US protection are very edgy and unsure what the future holds.

Over the centuries the leadership of the world has changed hands many times.  In the 1600's the Spanish empire was paramount and the Spanish conquered and held most of South America and the Caribbean .  The French, Dutch and Portuguese  were also dominant, but the British came to rule the world with the might of the massive British Empire.  British power faded under the costs of the two world wars and the baton passed to America, who has held it ever since.

Power comes at a cost - of both blood and treasure.  Force is never applied evenly or fairly and often maintaining world order can involve using fear as a weapon.  The most powerful country in the world certainly uses trade to its advantage, backed by that military power.

The fact that America seems to be voluntarily stepping back from that fulcrum of world leadership creates a dangerous vacuum.   It is said that nature abhors a vacuum and it is certain that another nation will seek to fill that vacant slot.   Whether that is the Russians or the Chinese - or another with ambition and the ability to flex its muscles - awaits to be seen.

The danger is that the US has the most powerful military might on this planet and whether those heading field command accept that retreat is questionable.  Should the military question the presidents sanity a military coup would not be out of the question.  It has happened in lesser nations.

Such is the danger when the direction in which an entire nation is heading rests entirely in the mind of a single individual !

Friday, 27 January 2017

The Day Of The " Gongs " !

Like most countries, Australia uses it's "National Day "" as the venue to award honours to those citizens who have made achievements that deserve recognition.  At the very pinnacle is the coveted "Australian of the Year "and yesterday that title  was bestowed on Professor Alan MacKay -Sim for what some scientists describe as a more important achievement than the moon landing.

Professor MacKay-Sim has the distinction of discovering the process that allowed a paraplegic to regain the use of his legs and again walk, and that is the first time that has ever been possible.  The Professor is an authority on how humans interpret the sense of smell and the biology of nasal cells. He worked with a Polish firefighter patient suffering paraplegia to take cells from his nose, grow them in a laboratory and inject them back into his severed spinal cord.

That is not the end of paraplegia, but it has opened the door to further research that has every chance of offering hope now that this breakthrough has shown that a possibility exists. Professor MacKay-Sim is only sixty-five years old and has many years of productive research ahead of him. His discovery is being treated with awe on the medical world stage.

Recognition by way of bestowing "honours "goes back a long way in the parliamentary style of government.   In Britain it was the expected thing a dedicated public servant looked forward to receiving on retirement and it marked their place in the pecking order of that highly titled country. All such awards are tiered in a descending order of seniority and they served an important purpose in civil society in preserving the class system.

For many decades Australia adopted knighthoods as the reward for exemplary public service to this country.  At the time of Federation it had been decided that no hereditary titles would apply in this new country and we would have no Earls, Barons, Dukes or similar titles held in perpetuity.  When a knighthood was granted, it would expire with the death of the holder.

It was perhaps a sign of Australian maturity that a decision was made to discard the British honours system and replace it with one dedicated to the nature of this country.  The various levels of the Australian Order now deliver recognition across all walks of Australian life.  It is the custom to consult the newspapers every Australia day to learn who amongst those we know has been awarded a "gong ". !

Its impossible to totally disassociate the selection of awards from politics..    Putting forward names for selection is a wide process and critics will certainly question some decisions, but by and large the selection committees seem to have made the right choices.  For those dedicated people who have spent a lifetime serving to keep a charity going with their time and money it can be heartening to find that they have been recognised with one of the minor awards.

There will always be bones of contention.   This year some critics have drawn attention to the imbalance between the genders.   Many more males got a gong than females.   That seems to ignore the male/female content of the workforce which constitutes more men on selection committees. The lineup for the top award comprised five men and three women, and all of them had distinctions that deserved consideration.   Hopefully, we never reach the stage where gender equality takes precedence over whatever individuals have achieved in their lifetime.

Thursday, 26 January 2017

Police Pusuits - And Public Safety !

It started with Princess Diana's death in a car crash in Paris.  Ordinary people started leaving flower bouquets at Kensington Palace, her home in London and over the days this grew to monumental proportions. The images flashed around the world and leaving flowers and other items of endearment became a custom that persists today.  This same phenomenon has become customary wherever terrorist attacks have maimed victims in western cities.

The latest outrage happened in Melbourne when a drug affected man with a violent history went on a rampage in a stolen car in the city centre and deliberately mowed down innocent people.  Five died and a score more were injured before that driver was shot and subdued by police.  He is now in a police cell and the legal world is pondering how to ensure he is adequately punished - and what can be done to prevent a repeat of such incidents.

Of course, after such incidents all the observers have 20-20 vision.   The police made several attempts to intercept and stop that stolen car and each time the pursuit was called off because of safety concerns.   Every day, drivers speed off and fail to stop when directed by police but incidents where one then goes on to commit wholesale murder by using the car as a weapon is thankfully rare.

What will come under the microscope is the police procedure on pursuits and how that contributed to these deaths.  The sticking point seems to be that at no stage is the final decision being made by the officers in the pursuing car. That decision is made by a senior sitting in an office far from the scene who has no direct vision of events and is relying on audio comments.   That officer is very aware that if he or she authorises a continued pursuit that ends with a crash and public deaths it will be examined in a coroners enquiry - and adverse criticism can be career threatening.   There is a strong incentive to play safe at all times.

Sadly, the pursuing police report that there were opportunities to take down the fleeing car and its driver with safety when it became immobile in traffic, but this request was refused.  In all fairness, the police had no reason to suspect that this driver had murder in mind and we do have laws in place to deliver extra punishment to drivers who instigate a police pursuit.   Sky's law was enacted when a pursued car crashed into an innocent family car and caused the death of a child.

Unfortunately,there is every chance that our efforts to restrict police pursuits in the interests of public safety are actually increasing the number of times drivers make a decision to try and outrun the police.   They have an incentive to reach very high speeds and drive dangerously in the understanding that this will result in the pursuit being cancelled.   It is a form of bravado that incites some young drivers to take such a chance.

Pursuits are only taken by police who have been specially trained in driving techniques at the police academy and have reached an acceptable standard.  When an opportunity occurs to take down a pursued car it is usually a split second decision.   That is not appropriate to trying to convey the reason to a third party who has no view of the situation - and who will make that decision.

The obvious outcome of this Melbourne tragedy would be to give more decision autonomy to the police drivers in pursuit situations - but with the responsibility for adverse outcomes resting on their shoulders.  A police officers use of a firearm is a personal decision that is removed from the usual police reliance on rank to maintain the decision chain.   Ending or continuing a pursuit is a similar evaluation that awaits an on the spot decision !

Wednesday, 25 January 2017

A Blast From The Past !

In the first half of the twentieth century lead was thought to be totally harmless.  It was common for childrens toys to be made from this metal.   Curios stored in countless attics from that period feature toy soldier sets made of that metal and in many cities water reticulation to the homes of citizens was conveyed in lead pipes.  Lead was cheap and easy to work and it was believed it posed no danger to humans.

Today, we know better.  People living in proximity to lead smelters have a serious health risk and it is specially dangerous to children.  It accumulates in the blood and it is known to retard mental activity, and once in the human body it is impossible to remove.  Lead has virtually disappeared from items commonly handled by humans.

Unfortunately, lead casts a long shadow and for the major part of the twentieth century it was an integral part of paint formulas.   Most house paints manufacture before and for many years after the second world war  comprised a mixture of lead and linseed oil.  Its longevity was short and in those days the repainting recommendation for repainting homes was every three years.

It was the nature of lead based paint to deteriorate to a powdery surface as it aged and this needed sanding back before repainting.  Where this repainting gap widened badly the painted surface cracked and peeled, and it was necessary to remove the old paint.  This was achieved by the application of a heat torch in conjunction with a paint scraper and the peelings were usually allowed to fall on the ground and be dissipated over time by the weather.

Unfortunately, lead retains its toxicity indefinitely and it is this practice which is now delivering danger to citizens of this twenty-first century.  The lead powder from paint sandings and the peelings from torch applications settled into the soil around houses and in many cases wind and rain distributed them more widely in surrounding gardens, and today that results in poisoned soil.

Simply working that soil with bare hands is a danger, but vegetables grown in contaminated soil have the ability to transfer lead to the human body and it is quite possible for a home vegetable garden to be the source of family poisoning.   That is particularly dangerous to growing children and can retard their brain development when it is in its most active mode.

Homeowners of property from that danger period before paint moved away from the use of lead are urged to have their soil tested.  Even those living in newer homes constructed after that period would be wise to have the tests because such an older homes may have been demolished to make way for new constructions.  On sloping ground, lead contamination may have leached from higher ground by rain runoff.

There is no action to recondition lead poisoned soil to make it safe.   It is far better left covered by grass or concrete and where a vegetable garden is desired it is better located in raised garden beds and filled with new soil from an uncontaminated source.

Fortunately, the modern trend is for very large new homes to cover most parts of ever smaller building blocks, leaving little opportunity for the extensive vegetable gardens of yore.  The greatest lead danger is for those living in existing old homes with large garden areas, still awaiting the encroaching suburbia to bring renewal.   It seems that home grown vegetables now come with a health risk !

Tuesday, 24 January 2017

Housing Affordability !

Unfortunately, Australia's housing price bubble is creating a vastly increasing pool of people who will never own their own home.  Not only will it be impossible for them to accumulate the deposit to hope to buy a house, the wage they earn will preclude them from being able to service the debt for regular mortgage payments.

There is a danger that we will make our cities  '"unaffordable " to those in low paid employment who provide the services that we take for granted.  In the past, those with low paid work tended to live in the cheaper outer suburbs and commute to work in the more affluent parts of the city, but housing prices across the entire housing spectrum have reached premium levels.

This is a world problem and we have turned to solutions appearing in other countries. In Britain the government has established what it calls the Housing Finance Corporation which subsidizes loan money to housing agencies.  It has committed  $ 6.5 billion in getting the low paid into home ownership.

Put simply, this plan offers a mortgage at an artificially low rate of interest, and extends the loan period well beyond the normal mortgage span.  It can not lower the price of houses so instead it makes the loan fit both the factors that bring repayments within reach for the low paid.

That would be fine if the government here had a large budget surplus to distribute, but it is battling to reduce a growing deficit and finding fresh money for this scheme will probably see grants for welfare housing decrease.  If that happens, the stock of affordable rental homes will retreat and the lowly paid will suffer a double whammy - priced out of the main housing market and unable to obtain affordable  rented accommodation in the city that offers work.

In the past, many lending authorities had a twenty year limit on home mortgages, but this has extended to bring loans into step with family finances.  It seems likely that these low income extended loans may quickly extend beyond the time reach of the original home purchaser and become a transaction that will be finalised by the children of that household.   A home may become something that is paid for over several generations.

Perhaps we are seeing a social change that will be as dramatic as the industrial revolution that created the "middle class " that became the cornerstone of our society.  It seems that those with tertiary qualifications are gaining ever expanding incomes while those in lower levels are experiencing both work shortages and stagnant pay levels.   We are seeing the emergence of a class divide that always existed, but was far less prominent just a decade or so ago.

Unfortunately, housing tends to illustrate this division.  No government has sufficient money to subsidize housing for all those clamoring for a roof over their heads and if this housing price bubble becomes unstoppable the gulf will widen.    We may be heading towards a society last seen before the invention of the steam engine !

Monday, 23 January 2017

A Cloudy Future !

It would have been hard for any indifferent Australians to miss Donald Trump's inauguration as the forty-fifth president of the United States.  It got saturation media coverage here and he is now the resident of the oval office and all the power of that office rests in his hands.

His first act was to sign an executive order to prevent any additional spending on aspects of Obamacare that are not yet in place. He has signalled that this health system will be repealed and replaced with a Republican model that at present lacks even a basic planning structure.  Health cover for poorer Americans seems likely to recede.

On the campaign trail, Trump threatened to review American defence commitments with the rest of the world.   America underpins NATO and that was the guarantee of member countries combined strength against a Soviet Union attack during the years of the cold war.  Many have cut back on their defence spending and a newly aggressive Russia is threatening Ukraine and the Baltic states.  It also raises a question mark over our mutual status with America under the ANZUS pact.

Another danger area is trade.  Trump seems to be taking America into a protectionist stance.  Trump has made it clear that he considers present and future free trade treaties harmful to American interests and he may employ tariffs to balance trade in Americas favour.   There is a possibility that he may spark a trading war and that could have dire consequences for both Mexico and China.  In the distant past, trade wars have often been the precursor of shooting wars.

We await the real intentions of this Trump presidency to emerge.  On the campaign trail the rhetoric was fractured and unreadable and America voted a man into office completely lacking a cohesive plan for how he would govern.   The danger is that - unlike the Westminster system - the presidency delivers almost unlimited power for the full term of office and almost the only way to remove a president is by impeachment.   The Westminster system has many ways to dispose of a prime minister and appoint a replacement with the minimum change to the governing process.

In the event that this Trump presidency became a disaster the problem is compounded because his political party has a majority in both the houses of government, and therefore a successful impeachment is unlikely.   The presidential system in place in America has seen fit to hand the levers of power to a president totally lacking a cohesive action plan presented in the run up to the vote.  He is assured of office - for four long years !

Here in Australia the issue of replacing the monarchy as head of state by changing to a presidential system has been bubbling away under the surface.  When it went to a referendum, the result was a marginal 55/45 decision to retain the monarchy, but the framing of the question did not allow for a direct vote by the people.   The president would have been selected by the parliamentarians - and that was unacceptable to most people.

Our monarch is approaching extreme old age and eventually the issue of monarchy or presidency will again rise to the surface.  How this Trump presidency resonates will have a direct bearing on that decision.  Many presidential head of state posts are merely ceremonial functions lacking in executive power and this was envisaged for an Australian presidency, but we have also seen ambitious office holders launch revolutions to gain executive power in other countries.

How events in America unfold could well sway the eventual monarchy/presidential question here in Australia.


Sunday, 22 January 2017

The " Credit " Era !

Buying household items on credit only really took off after the end of the second world war.  As factories rekindled from war production they started to churn out consumer goods and a fridge in the kitchen changed to a necessity rather than a luxury.  Old coppers in the laundry were replaced by washing machines - and when television arrived in 1956 that was the start of a mad buying frenzy across the entire nation.

Those were the days when " Hire Purchase " was all the rage.  It was a simple arrangement.  A finance company purchased the item you needed and as its owner, made it available to you in return for payments extended over many months.   Should you fall behind in those repayments you could expect a call by a repossession agent.  Many people referred to hire purchase as the "Never never " because to many folk it was everlasting debt.

Australia's banks were seeing a profit opportunity passing them by and in 1974 the miracle of Bankcard arrived on the scene.  The banks formed a mutual credit company and started posting out to their customers a small plastic card that could be used at a huge range of shops - to buy items on credit.   Credit limits were established and high interest rates were justified because these were personal loans.  This indiscriminate issueing of cards angered many people who had firm views on only saving and buying for cash as a moral rule.

Bankcard was only applicable within Australia and with the coming of the jet age and overseas travel it was quickly overcome by International credit card companies - and it ceased in 2006.  By this time the buying opportunities had extended to the Internet and warnings were sounding on the level of personal debt.  Some people were balancing debt over a number of card accounts and amassing debt that was unpayable.  The level of personal banruptcies increased sharply.

The recession of 2008 was a wakeup call to many people.   The housing price bubble burst and left many with a mortgage in excess of a realistic selling price. The job marker receded and salary levels retreated in most sectors.  Government bailouts prevented disaster, but at the expense of a huge national deficit from which we are still slowly emerging.  The average citizen is now much more cautious in adding to their personal debt level.

A phenomenon that has been sharply increasing in use is the "Debit Card ".   That has all the attributes of a credit card, except that it simply transfers funds from the users own bank account to settle the debt.  In the latest banking review period the use of debit cards marginally exceeded credit card spending.   Last decade, the amount of credit card spending was more than double the figure expended on debit cards.

We are certainly seeing change in the logic of finance.  An ever increasing retail spectrum is moving away from a monthly billing cycle because of the cost of postage and many services are only available on the basis of automatic payment from the customers bank account.   The banks report that ATM patronage has fallen sharply as people need less cash in their wallets.  The ability to tap a debit card on a payment terminal - or to pay with a mobile phone - has changed the way we now pay for those small purchases that formerly required cash.

There is the expectation that this will continue to expand.  Unfortunately, it also makes us more vulnerable to complete chaos should we be subjected to a power blackout or the Internet be interrupted.  Past glitches have illustrated the complete cessation of all services.  It is logical that this would be a prime avenue of attack should a war situation develop.

It is a point to ponder before we completely do away with cash money !

Saturday, 21 January 2017

Sporting Histrionics !

A lot of people watching the tennis the other night must have cringed when Nick Kyrgios had his spectacular meltdown.   The explicit bad language was bad enough but the racquet smashing sent an ugly message to younger players and Kyrgious is fast gaining a reputation as one of the "bad boys "of tennis.

The fact that he on occasions represents Australia is a concern to many people.  That is not the image we want to project to the world.  There is no doubt that Kyrgios has talent, but he is entirely unpredictable.  One moment he is playing normally and suddenly he suffers a mood change and he starts to act like a raving lunatic.

John McEnroe is a man who terrorised umpires when he was at his height a long time ago and he commented that Kyrgio's game gave "tennis a black eye " and other people have suggested that he badly needs the services of a trainer, but that has more to do with his technical performance.  What we are seeing on court is more a matter of bratty petulance.

Some may even wonder if these blowups are not a deliberate attempt to attract the sort of publicity that puts bums on seat at tennis matches.   The histrionics that John McEnroe employed made him world famous and when he retired from the game he was a very rich man.  The difference was that McEnroe was a champion player and the bulk of his temperament was directed at umpires and the decisions they handed down.

Attention grabbing tactics are an integral part of individual play in most sports because they help to deliver fame and fortune to individuals.   A few years back many women tennis players became known as "screamers ".    When they hit the ball they emitted  a shrill emission of lung air which many spectators found to be offensive.  Thankfully, that seems to have decreased in recent times.

Tennis has long held the reputation of being one of the more traditional sports, known for its good manners and fair play.  By tradition, the annual pinnacle world tennis event is the competition in England at Wimbledon.   This is closely followed by world television viewing.

Along with the traditional strawberries and cream there was an incident back in the 1960's when a competitor implemented a way of drawing attention and getting her name and picture in the world media.   This was a time when short tennis skirts became the fashion and this shapely young lady complimented her attire by wearing lace knickers.

The flaring of such skirts during play was not lost on the camera crews covering the event and this received massive publicity.  The doyens of the game were scandalized and it was rumoured that Royalty stayed away until this player had been eliminated,  Sellout crowds packed the stands during this woman's scheduled appearances.

If Nick Kyrgios learns that it takes self discipline to reach the top in any sport he will go a long way towards a successful career, and with that comes the good life.  A bevy of top players are welcomed around the world and they names are as well known as movie stars.  If Kyrgios wants to be part of that illustrious company he needs to mend his manners.  He is fast reaching the stage where Australia wants to forget him.




Friday, 20 January 2017

A Mixed Message !

It is traditional that in the final hours of holding office the outgoing president of the United States of America has the right to confer pardons on prisoners - without having to give an account or reason for those decisions.  Barack Obama has astonished many people by ordering the release from prison of Chelsea Manning.

In  2010 Private Bradley Manning was serving  in the US Army.  He had a sensitive job processing military signals and information and fellow workers remembered that he always worked with music playing in the background.   What they failed to realise  was that these music discs were really a decoy.  Manning was transferring top secret government files onto blank discs which he was smuggling out at the end of his shift.

A huge trove of critically sensitive information was made available by Manning to Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks.   When WikiLeaks released this on the Internet it caused a huge stir and great embarrassment in government circles.  Manning was arrested and sentenced to thirty-five years in America's military prison of Fort Leavenworth in Kansas.  He was not found guilty of the most serious charge - of  "aiding the enemy "- which would have attracted the death penalty.

Bradley Manning, now 29 was granted medical permission for a sex change while in Leavenworth and is now a woman known as Chelsea Manning.  She is likely to walk out the gates a free woman in a few days time.

This Obama act of mercy is certainly sending mixed signals.  Manning is reviled by many people as a traitor, while others hail him - or now her - as a whistleblower because the released documents revealed many American law breaches.   It is uncertain how this message will be received by others handling sensitive government information across both the civilian and military spectrum.  It does seem to give a seal of approval to releasing the nation's secrets where they conflict with the law.

To further complicate the issue, Julian Assange has been holed up in a foreign embassy in London because he fears extradition to Sweden to face a controversial rape charge.   He believes that the moment he sets foot on Swedish soil the US will implement extradition proceedings and if he faces an American court he will get a life term for espionage.   It is reported that he recently gave an assurance that he would surrender to transportation to Sweden - if Manning is released.  So far, Assange has remained silent since the announcement of Obama's clemency.

If nothing else, this highlights the almost impossible task of maintaining secrecy that confronts governments  across the world.   The wonders of computers and the Internet are finely balance by the barriers of passwords and firewalls to prevent unauthorised access, but there still needs to be input by people who are screened and cleared to pose no danger.   As the Manning data theft illustrated, security is only as strong as the weakest link in the processing chain.   As a serving soldier in the army there would be a reasonable assumption that processing sensitive information could be safely left in his hands.

Many people will deplore this pardon.   Many others will hail it as a victory for whistleblowers to unmask illegal actions by governments and bring them to the attention of the world.   It will certainly bring home the sheer impossibility of guaranteeing state secrets in this age of the computer !

Thursday, 19 January 2017

A Search Ends !

Anytime there is an aircraft crash anywhere in the world it sets off the most intensive investigation to determine the exact cause.  Every day an almost unimaginable number of planes carry people safely to their destinations and yet the entire theory of flight rests on engineering principles that must go exactly to schedule to avoid disaster.

A modern airliner has a multi million dollar price tag because it consists of literally thousands of finely engineered parts and with proper servicing individual aircraft remain in service for decades. The people who fly these aircraft spend hours in an exact flight simulator to learn and test the individual features of the make and model they will be licensed to fly.  Instructors create an entire range of emergencies to test their recovery skills.

In the early days, air travel was noisy and slow.The jet age and then the wide bodied jet saw people moved in mass at heights where the air was smooth and speed over the ground was near the speed of sound.  Seat prices dropped and world holidays became within the financial reach of very ordinary people.

The fear of flying evaporated.  Stepping onto an aircraft became as mundane as stepping onto a commuter bus.   We were actually safer travelling in an airliner than journeying to the airport in our private car.  That was why crash investigators were so diligent in determining why rare aircraft accidents happened - so that lessons could be learned to ensure that cause was never repeated.

In March 2014 two hundred and thirty nine passengers and crew boarded a Malaysian airliner for designated flight MH370 between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing.  The first part of the journey was uneventful but as the aircraft was passing between control zones the transponders which made it visible on radar were mysteriously turned off as was its radio communications.  It made several strange course changes and then headed out into the vast expanse of the Indian ocean.   That aircraft was never heard from again.

This mysterious loss set in motion a massive search under the auspices of Malaysia, China and Australia.  Equipment on board relaying engine functions gave a search approximation and over two hundred million dollars was spent searching for the wreckage on the ocean floor - without success. No oil slick or floating wreckage was sighted and many months later parts identified as part of the missing plane washed up on Union island and Mauritius in the northern Indian ocean.

There are many theories to explain this mystery.   It seems certain that the aircraft continued its journey over the Indian ocean for many hours - until it ran out of fuel.   There have been occasions where pilots have committed suicide by deliberately crashing their aircraft.   It is possible a sudden decompression killed all aboard by lack of breathable air.   It is possible that some integral part of the aircraft failed.   It seems that we will never know because the search has been discontinued.

Even if some miracle later leads to discovery of the wreck site it is unlikely that a cause will be determined.  Recovery of the "black boxes " was the first objective, but by now they have experienced both the crash and years of immersion and are likely to yield nothing.

It seems that the designation "MH370 " will become another of the mysteries cloaked by the vastness of this worlds oceans.


Wednesday, 18 January 2017

Our Defence Status !

Since 1788 the defence of this country has relied on powerful friends. As a colony of the mighty British Empire we lived under the protection of the Royal Navy and our enemies were those country's with which Britain was from time to time conducting wars.

We certainly got a fright in 1942 when the Japanese swept across the Pacific and came perilously close when they landed in New Guinea, but the Americans came to our aid and at wars end we entered into permanent defence alliance with the signing of the ANZUS treaty.   That was - and is - the cornerstone of the defence pact in place on which we rely.

In effect, we have lived under the American nuclear umbrella.  We are fortunate that we have no direct threat of invasion from any other country and we maintain a credible defence force for a country of our population size.  But change is taking place on the world scene.

America is abandoning its role as the " world's policeman " and may instead pursue its own commercial interests.   This has yet to take shape but we certainly need to review our defence needs with more emphasis on our own capability of defence.

The enigma for this country is our close neighbour - Indonesia.   This is a vast archipelago with many times our population.  For centuries it was ruled by the Dutch and after independence it was openly hostile to Australia. It's first president talked of invading and ruling Australia until he lost power in a Communist coup attempt and a more conciliatory dictator gained the presidency.

Indonesia has a secular constitution but its religion is primarily Islam with small minorities of Christians and Buddhists.  In recent times its presidents have been elected democratically and relations with Australia have been more cordial, but with many tetchy moments.  We do not have a common defence treaty, but our armed forces do conduct mutual training exercises.

What is ominous for Australia is the rise of militant Islam in Indonesia.   It seems that the  Islamic State rebellion in Iraq and Syria has found common ground with some religious leaders across the archipelago  and there are demands for Sharia law.   A new religious leader has emerged and a challenge has arisen over next months gubernatorial election.   Firebrand cleric Muhammad Rizieq Shihab - known as Habib Rizieq - is pursuing blasphemy charges against a Christian contender because of comments made about the Koran.   The cleric has mobilized hundreds of thousands of protesters to rage in the streets and clash with the police.

The danger is that Indonesia may be forced to adopt Islamic militancy by sheer force of numbers and thus create unrest in the Muslim content of other nations to our near north.   We could find ourselves as a non Islamic island in an Islamic ocean of the lower Pacific region.

In the past, the common link in our defence relationships have been national backgrounds and the blood of ancestry.   It seems likely that our future may be in engagement with a much more diverse world where defence interests coincide.  We may find ourselves allied to countries with which we have no common normal connection in the interests of common survival.

In his world of the future we may have to learn to live with a polyglot religious mix !

Tuesday, 17 January 2017

The " Right " to Die !

The one thing certain about life - is death !  Sooner or later every person on this planet will reach the end of their life span and die.   The only unknown is whether that will be mercifully peaceful or whether fate has decreed us an unpleasant end.

Legally, the decision to end our own life rests in our own hands.  Suicide is not a crime.  It was - a century ago - and those that botched a suicide attempt and lived were often put before a magistrate and punished.  Some of the churches still insist on their form of punishment by not permitting priests to perform burial rights or allow burial in consecrated ground.

Unfortunately, those desperate to end their lives sometimes unintentionally also deliver death to others.  Deliberately crashing a car at high speed or jumping from a high building can have unintended consequences.   We are very careful to put barriers in place to stop people from accessing the drugs that would allow life to end swiftly and painlessly.  The law also punishes anyone who assists a person to end their own life.

Our biggest fear is death from any one of a number of diseases that inflict agonising pain on the sufferer - and of those Cancer delivers the most fear.  Those who have witnessed a family member or other loved one suffer such a fate usually are supporters of euthanasia.

We have already taken one tentative step in that direction. A small number of Palliative care clinics provide comfort for those reaching the end of their life and the degree of pain medication given may shorten the life of the sufferer.  This is at the discretion of the caring people who staff these institutions - and the authorities ignore any conflict with the law.

Palliative care is usually concentrated in the cities and is beyond the reach of most people.  The end for many cancer sufferers comes in a public hospital bed where explicit rules and regulations limit how much pain relief can be applied.   We are well aware that humane minded nurses and doctors put themselves at personal risk trying to relieve this agony.

Several attempts to legislate euthanasia have been overturned by the Federal parliament.  Such legislation is a state right and once again there is debate in New South Wales as to whether such a bill should be put to a vote.   Sadly, both the state premier and the leader of the opposition have publicly stated their intention to vote against this bill if it ever reaches the floor of the lower house.   The intentions of political leaders will obviously influence the vote of their party members who hope for later ministerial selection.

Once again the law of inertia will apply.   It is likely that this bill will be introduced into the New South Wales parliament in the second half of 2017 at which point MP's from all major parties will be granted a conscience vote.   You can be sure that the churches will launch a media campaign to try and prevent euthanasia becoming law.

Polls consistently reveal that public opinion is solidly behind the right for people to be able to die with dignity and that the termination of life should be a matter between that person and their doctor. The politicians seem determined to keep such a vote in their own hands and there have been no moves to take it to a referendum.   We seem to be out of step with many other parts of the world !

Monday, 16 January 2017

Second Class Citizens !

It seems that the moment you become a resident in a nursing home you enter a strange government definition of your place in society.  In the bewildering lexicon of government terminology you are deemed to be no longer  "in the community  "!

In fact, you are lumped in with another group of people who also fit that description - those who a court has sentenced to serve a period of time in one of the country's prisons.   Both categories cease to be recognised as having access to key psychological treatment under Medicare rules.

Under this regulation, nursing home residents are barred from GP mental health treatment plans and associated psychological therapies provided to other Australians through the the Better Access  Medicare programme.  In many respects, they are treated as second class citizens.

It is estimated that about 82,000 of the 176,000 residents of nursing homes in Australia suffer from some form of mental illness, excluding Dementia., or suffer some form of mental distress.  The government seems to think that some form of depression is "natural "in old age and is looking at treatment costs as a funding issue.

It seems quite logical that any old person making the conversion from the lifestyle they have enjoyed to the care of a nursing home may need help in making that adjustment. If professional help is denied the nursing home authorities are forced to rely on the range of anti depressants available.  These bring with them the increased danger of falls and fractures that cognitive-behavioural therapy could ease.

It seems strange that it is government policy to do whatever is necessary to give support to the elderly to enable them to live longer in their own homes and ease the pressure on chronically short nursing home beds, and yet when that conversion becomes inevitable this support is withdrawn and taking care of mental health issues is placed entirely in the hands of nursing home staff.

There is also a connection between nursing homes and the shortage of hospital beds.  What is not available to nursing home patients because of this exclusion does become available when they are transferred to a hospital bed.   It is reasonable that patients with disruptive mental illnesses would be transferred to hospital to get treatment not available because of this anomaly.  Making mental health treatment available in nursing homes would probably help with the hospital bed shortages.

Pressure has been building for some time and the government has announced that "access to services through the Better Access initiative for residential aged care facilities will be considered in the coming ongoing Medicare review. "

If common sense has any bearing on that decision it should be a "no brainer ""  !

Sunday, 15 January 2017

The " Counterfeit " Danger !

A few years back an engine fell off a passenger jet in flight and the safety board investigation sent a chill through the spine of intending airline passengers.   They discovered that the bolts holding the engine onto the transponder strut were counterfeit and lacked the strength to safely do the job.

As the investigation widened, the depth of this deception became clear.  Aircraft spare parts are very pricey because genuine parts made under license must meet exacting standards established when the aircraft is first designed.  To ensure that this is met each part must be accompanied by a signed off certificate from a licensing inspector.

To the industries horror, it was discovered that a counterfeit industry had emerged that was making what seemed to be identical parts but which lacked the careful amalgamation of special steels and alloys to gain the required strength.   These were authenticated by forged certificates that would pass even the closest inspection.

Mild steel bolts that cost a few dollars in a hardware store were duplicating hardened steel components that would be priced at several hundred dollars each - and making a fortune for the counterfeiters.  It was even discovered that these forgeries were installed on Air Force One - which carried the US president.

The resulting crackdown drove these counterfeiters out of business, but it seems that they have simply changed directions and are now targetting the vast automotive spare parts industry.  What is on offer bearing the car manufacturers logo and packed in boxes identical with the genuine parts may be cheap copies which lack the strength to safely do the intended job.

This is not an offer of anonymous goods of a "cheap and cheerful " nature for those who want to take a chance on unbranded equipment.  These are presented as genuine spare parts produced by the manufacturer of the make and model involved and intended to bring the vehicle to showroom standard.   They are intended to deceive.

A raid on warehouses and distribution centres at the Middle East air hub of Abu Dhabi discovered 500,000 fake and counterfeit parts intended for distribution across Asia, with many intended for sale in Australia.  Their value was estimated at $ 5.4 million.  It is feared that much of the stock on the shelves of car part suppliers here may already be counterfeit.

The danger is obvious.  The car repair industry has no reason to suspect that these are not genuine parts and if they fail in road conditions they can lead to serious accidents and fatalities. Perhaps the recent blip in road deaths may be part of this phenomenon.

The world aircraft industry tightened the screws on parts identification and it seems that the car industry must take similar measures.  Perhaps the pharmaceutical industry would be wise to check the authenticity of drugs coming into this country.    The lure of making big profits from counterfeiting genuine goods seems to be an ever expanding industry.

Saturday, 14 January 2017

The Right to Say " No " !

It seems inevitable that eventually our politicians will cave in to world opinion and "Same Sex Marriage " will become a legal contract between people of the same gender in Australia. It seems that ultra conservative thinking politicians in the New South Wales parliament are not waiting for that issue to come to a vote in their attempt to shield marriage celebrants from the wrath of anti-discrimination laws if they refuse to perform these ceremonies on religious grounds.

At issue is whether this refusal should be extended to new marriage celebrants if the Federal parliament makes the union legal ?   At present, many same sex couples celebrate their coming together as a couple in every way except the legal formality and the state has granted celebrants the right to refuse to conduct such civil ceremonies.

Supporters of same sex marriage see it differently. Marriage celebrants are people who hold a license issued by the state and in many ways that makes them public servants.   They are allowed to make a charge, but just as any government employee in a clerical position can not refuse to issue a marriage license on moral grounds it is hard to see where marriage celebrants should be any different.

This is an issue that is likely to throw the spotlight on marriage rules within the religious community. Attitudes vary widely in the thinking of individual religions and often between individual priests. It is not uncommon for marriage to be refused between couples from across the religious divide and in some cases acceptance rests on an undertaking that any children of the marriage will be brought up following the religion of the celebrant.

This form of schism can be devastating in country area.  Sometimes the parents of one of the partners oppose the union and prevail on the priest to refuse.  Many a young couple have been forced to abandon a church marriage in company with their many friends and instead replace that with the austerity of a civil ceremony performed by a bored clerk in the local town hall.

You can be certain that those churches opposed to same sex marriage on moral grounds will refuse to perform such unions, and that old perennial - the joining of divorcees in new marriages - will again become an issue in many congregations.   It seems that the divide between a religious ceremony and a civil ceremony is about to widen.

The whole purpose of providing marriage celebrants who were not ordained priests was to fill the gap between the bias and restrictions of church marriages and the austerity of what were called "Registry office " nuptials.  The state had a duty to provide the legality necessary to record an official union and suddenly it became fashionable to have that friendly celebrant take the necessary vows in a tranquil place of great beauty - such as on a beach or in a forest glade.  The number of church weddings has consequently steadily decreased.

The politicians pushing this issue would be wise to retreat.  Just as couples determined to have a church wedding usually find a hospitable priest ready to officiate, even if they have to change faiths to achieve that end, most civil ceremonies involve a celebrant picked by the couple for their enthusiasm and presentation in making the ceremony memorable.

Nothing would be more "deadly " than a wedding ceremony in which the person officiating was compelled to be there by law and was reciting the necessary words against their will.

Friday, 13 January 2017

Blackmail !

The story of the moment is that the Russian FSB - which is the current version of the old Soviet Union KGB spy network - has the means to blackmail president elect Donald Trump just days away from his inauguration.

That will certainly have the news spin doctors working overtime.  There is credible evidence that Russian hackers penetrated both the Democrat and Republican email streams and chose to release only material damaging to Hillary Clinton.   Russia feared Clinton in the oval office and some credit this scandal campaign with tipping the balance to deliver victory to Trump.

Expect a huge volume of "sources "to emerge from the woodwork with claims that they have information to support this story.  As a billionaire businessman Donald Trump made frequent trips to Russia and as recently as 2013 Moscow was the host city to Trump's "Miss Universe "contest.  What better scenario than the worlds most beautiful women in close contact with a powerful man able to influence the judges decision.

Most likely this Russian blackmail claim will be a version of what is often called the "honey trap ".   The old Soviet Union actually had a school where beautiful Russian girls were trained to be seductresses.  Embassy staff were warned that finding a girlfriend in Moscow was usually part of a KGB plot to infiltrate and gain information.  Any liaison with a Russian citizen was viewed with suspicion.

The old KGB were notorious for involving visiting foreign businessmen in parties that involved prostitutes.  The rooms were carefully wired with hidden cameras and this form of entrapment was used to influence business decisions in Russia's favour.   As always, the purpose of blackmail is to pose a threat to the good name of the victim.

In the past, many American presidents had mistresses.   Even the much admired John Kennedy was courting disclosure as the bond with the media to ignore presidential peccadillo's began to fade.  The liaison between Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky was splashed across news headlines and brought calls for impeachment and it is now clear that presidential lives are firmly in the sights of news investigators.

The Russians have probably badly badly misjudged their target if they think releasing pictures of Donald Trump having sex with a bunch of hookers in a Moscow room will bring him down.  He would probably cheerfully agree that it happened - and comment that it was a lot of fun - and thousands of his red neck followers would give ecstatic support.

Trump won the presidency by converting what many believed to be death blows into attributes of success.   He refused to release his tax files, and agreed he had paid little tax on his billions - and claimed that made him "very clever "!   He even disparaged half the United States population with his "locker room "comments on how he engaged with women - and yet he won over half of the women's vote at the presidential election.  He had the knack of turning whatever seemed reprehensible - into an attribute.

Donald Trump simply does not have a saintly image to besmirch.  He is the sort of guy most people would expect to engage with a bunch of hookers on a business trip - and he just happens to be becoming the next US president.    From the Russians, this seems to be a very hollow threat !

Thursday, 12 January 2017

Licensing Laws !

The individual state licensing laws have been put in place to protect those below the legal drinking age from getting access to alcohol and they are scrupulously enforced by the police in hotels and bottle shops.  Heavy fines and loss of license penalties apply for those who fail to demand proof of age and sell liquor to under age customers.

Despite this embargo, it is generally acknowledged that most teenagers experience little difficulty in obtaining alcohol.  Either one of the group who has attained the legal drinking age buys it on their behalf or in many cases indulgent parents become the supplier.   Argument rages over the merits of allowing teenagers small amounts of alcohol to moderate a later tendency for health damaging excess.

For many decades the mainland Australian states had a draconian approach to the availability of liquor to all ages.  The entire population was forced to endue the closure of pub bars precisely on the stroke of six pm - and this led to the notorious "six o'clock swill ".    The footpath outside was crammed with drinkers holding as many drinks as possible after being forced outside the door by these pub closures.  Only Tasmania retained the civilized custom of ten pm closure.

Both the adoption of this ten pm closure across Australia and the lowering of the drinking age from twenty-one to eighteen  ushered in an era of more tolerance for alcohol.  Many pubs began to embrace live entertainment to attract customers and late license permits extended drinking hours and brought in the phenomenon of night clubs.Unfortunately, crowd dispersal at closing time became unruly and draconian lockout laws were needed to tame this problem.

Australia has never achieved the civilized consumption of alcohol so common in many European countries.  Supply tends to be restricted here by heavy legislative control and in recent times many of the vantage points to watch the famous Sydney new year fireworks have become alcohol free.  Alcohol with a picnic lunch on many beaches is also prohibited.

Like most cities, the Sydney Festival is a music event enjoyed by music fans of all ages and many are dismayed at new rules that will be put in place for this coming event.  In the past the Festival village was studded with dining opportunities in which alcohol was available and many people enjoyed food events accompanied with a convivial glass of wine.   The same rules that applied to families dining with their children in hotels  applied to the serving of alcohol.   The serving of alcohol was not permitted to those under the age of eighteen.   Those under eighteen were not permitted to enter these dining areas unless accompanied by an adult.

This coming Sydney Festival is being sponsored by a liquor company and it has been decided that a  lockout will apply.   The entire venue will be a prohibited area for those under eighteen, unless they are accompanied by a parent - and that would be totally unacceptable to the youth of today.

Basically, the organizers are saying that it is too much trouble to enact age restrictions at the various  dining areas..   It is far simpler to bar entry to the under eighteens - unless they are under the control of a parent.   It seems that the interests of the liquor industry is taking precedence over the audience mix this Festival intends to serve.

That will not be the ruling in similar festivals in other Australian state capitals.  The right for young people to come and enjoy a music festival is to be sacrificed and they be made unwelcome so that access to alcohol to other patrons will not be subject to restrictions.   It will be interesting to see how this affects crowd numbers !

Wednesday, 11 January 2017

Education - The Money Trap !

All around Australia a generation of young people have ended their school years and are facing that momentous decision of  "What's next ?    There is little doubt that they have been exposed to a tirade of advice from parents, school counsellors, the media that this is now the age of qualifications.  The days of earning a good living with just the school leaving certificate - are over !

Just before Christmas those all important ATAR scores were published and the grade achieved opened the door to university entrance for many.   Only those in the highest echelon would gain admittance to the coveted ranks of those studying medicine and law but lower ATAR's  offer opportunities in a huge range of other studies.

Those weighing up the rewards of a university degree know that most of the cost of study will be absorbed into a HECS type loan from the government and that will automatically become repayable when their earning level reaches a nominated stage.   They will struggle with living expenses, but this is offset by the expectation that a degree will elevate them to a higher earning income career.

Those making a choice other than their intended line of study need to be very careful. Is that profession in decline and being replaced by more modern technology ?   Is it offering job opportunities, or is this a qualification in over supply ?   And most importantly, is this line of study in keeping with the students ability and interest  ?

Unfortunately our universities are experiencing a calamitous drop-out rate.   Those who fail to finish their course are still liable for the HEC debt and this will be collected by the tax office whenever their earnings reach pay back level.   They suffer the double whammy of no degree and a big debt owing.

We now have a host of private colleges and study institutions offering enrolment in competition with the universities.  Many of these are "for profit " and most are government accreditted and offer HECS approved finance.   It is not unknown for such institutions to encounter financial difficulties and close their doors.  Students find that they are unable to continue their course, but are still subject to that HEC debt owing.  It is the worst of both worlds.

Unfortunately, a divisive imbalance in respect still exists between "the "Professions "and  " Trades  ".   Reduced to its basics it is a choice between "white collar "or "blue collar "jobs, and yet the financial returns for those providing service industries now usually delivers earnings beyond many white collar professions.

It is an axiom of reality that we humans are either suited to work with our heads - or work with our hands.  The opportunities to earn a degree have advanced as sharply as the opportunities to develop trade skills have withered.  Apprenticeship opportunities have declined and we no longer offer the range of work choice training in what used to be called "Technical Colleges ".

The building industry is crippled by a shortage of qualified technicians.  New home construction is held up by a shortage of bricklayers.  The rate for laying bricks is reaching astronomical levels. Those facing the conundrum of what and where to study would do well to widen their horizons.  A university degree is not the only way to earn a better living !

Tuesday, 10 January 2017

Prelude to War ?

It is said that those who fail to learn from history are destined to repeat it !   Some very wise heads concluded that the only lessons to be learned from both the first and second world wars - was that integrating Europe into a confederation of states was the only way to avoid the inevitability of a third world war.

The outcome of that plan was the European Union.  The initial concept was to stabilize the production of coal and steel but this quickly enlarged to envisage a "common market " where goods would flow between countries without border control and duties and eventually citizens would be able to travel the length and breadth of Europe without the need for passport controls.

It slowly accumulated member states and its centre of gravity was established in tiny little neutral Belgium - at Brussels.  The threat of war was not entirely eliminated.   The Soviet Union and its satellites presented an opposing ideology until a financial collapse saw the block dissipate and many states join the EU.  It was even possible that Russia could become a member state.

Perhaps the adoption of the Euro as a common currency was a time misjudgement.  The economies of some smaller member countries was too fragile for rapid implementation, resulting in the need for bail outs.   The world recession of 2008 certainly put strain on the alliance and this has led to the return of tribalism.   The national tribal characteristics within old countries borders have awoken and started shaking the hegemony of the EU.

We are seeing political stability turn in new directions.. The voters in many countries have turned away from traditional parties and embraced new politics in the form of a national awakening. In much of the world the status quo is under threat and old alliances are being abandoned.  The recent American presidential election delivered an unexpected outcome.

World stability is under threat.  Russia has returned to an aggressive stance and the rise of China is straining old alliances. Britain has elected to leave the EU and it is quite possible that the entire concept might disintegrate.   It is a chillling thought that the spectre of war has returned to haunt the nation states of Europe.

Those that remember the  1930's battle for the world's minds between Fascism and Communism have vivid recall of the rigors of " the great depression ".  An orderly world had ceased to exist and the lines of unemployed seemed endless.   It was thought that the recession of 2008 might be the start of a similar event, and that possibility has not entirely been eliminated.

How strange that on the outbreak of world war two the lack of money to fix the economy turned into a flood to buy munitions and those unemployment lines morphed into a manpower shortage.  We shudder in horror at the excesses and cruelty, but some would claim it was a " civilized " war because the horrors of poison gas was not employed by either side.

Hopefully, the great powers who juggle the levers of world control are not thinking that a civilized world war to bring finance under control would be the answer to our problems.  A war where nuclear weapons remained an unused threat similar to gas in the last war.

Unfortunately, it is the return of tribalism that makes such thinking possible  !

Monday, 9 January 2017

Citizenship !

Once again the politicians are debating just what aspirants seeking Australian Citizenship need to know to qualify for the protection that award bestows.  Academics are delving into our past history to try and put together a synopsis of our past which potential "New Australians " would be required to parrot in an exercise of rote learning.

For the vast majority seeking the protection that certificate provides it is a one way deal.   The moment the Commonwealth of Australia hands over the certificate that person gains rights and privileges that can not be rescinded.  Australia gains - absolutely nothing !

That person whom has just sworn an oath on whatever Deity they worship that they will obey Australian law is perfectly free to renounce that pledge and demand religious rights that are not the law in this country.  Provided they do not actually break our laws they are free to act as they please and even if they indulge in a life of crime their new country has lost the right to deport them to their country of birth.

That is one of the peculiarities of International law.  The countries of the world decided that individuals needed protection from unjust governments who might otherwise use deportation to rid themselves  of vexing citizens. Totalitarian countries with ruthless regimes might inflict mass murder on their citizens, but at least they were not free to boot them out over the border.  They had to flee of their own volition - and then they were called "Asylum Seekers " !

The people who came to Australia after 1788 are all migrants from elsewhere, although some may not have travelled here by their own choice.  We accept that all who are born in this country have immediate Australian nationality and we have created a new national identity on the world stage with this mix of cultures from different lands.   That culture is now under threat from within by migrants who demand all the benefits of citizenship but reject the obligations to abide by Australian culture and to live their lives within Australian law.

It would be reasonable for Australia to withdraw from this International understanding on Citizenship rights and declare that future citizenship for those migrating to this country will be on a provisional basis.   Revocation of provisional citizenship would require the authority of a superior court and would be judged entirely on failure to adhere to the expectations of national unity.  Criminal activity would not be a valid reason for citizenship withdrawal.

We have the right to demand that the citizenship oath be binding.   The award of citizenship is a contract between this country and its new citizens that is not to be taken lightly and it would be reasonable to impose sanctions on both parties.  Applicants are very careful to observe our laws and follow our customs during the application process.   Ensuring that objectivity continues is not an unreasonable demand.

It is hard to see how a rehash of what an intending migrant is supposed to learn about the earlier history of this country will resolve the present tendency to renege on the oath of allegiance.


Sunday, 8 January 2017

Temptation !

The fact that "match fixing " has moved to the junior levels of tennis seems to be part and parcel of permitting betting on specific events that happen within sporting games.  One of the best defences against "whole of game " outcomes was the need in team sports to corrupt a number of players to ensure that outcome.

Fortunately, the gaming industry has specific algorithms to quickly detect unusual betting plunges and laws are in place to suspend betting and cancel bets already in place.  Unfortunately the outcome will probably succeed if the number placing bets can be restrained to a very small group and they are not too greedy in the size of their bets placed.  It seems that the syndicates are getting very clever at disguising the tactics that deliver profits.

In the particular case that is making headlines the bet was not on the outcome of the tennis match.  The bet was on the result of a particular "set "within the game and to achieve that loss the player involved needed to make a number of "unforced errors "of play.  Betting scrutineers well versed in the game are then forced to make a decision on the legitimacy of play.

Obviously, when world tennis champions are playing in events like the Davis cup the level of betting surges but a sudden betting plunge on a junior game will certainly ring alarm bells because it is out of step with normal betting trends.   It is quite clear that sports administrations take corruption very seriously and offenders can expect long suspensions from play.

It is unlikely that sportspeople at the pinnacle of fame would be tempted to cheat. Their legitimate rewards are far too great to be put at risk, but those working their way in the junior grades are much more vulnerable.  Here the financial rewards are meagre and it is tempting to consider attaining a large sum of money for what is always suggested will be a "one off " event.   Usually it doesn't end that way.   Once " hooked ", the player is under pressure to deliver more rewards.

The problem is that sport has become synonymous with money.  There was a time - not very long ago - when the average football player earned a living in a full time job - and played sport as a weekend activity.   Today a player that makes selection into a national team expects to be feted as a celebrity - and paid accordingly.  That A-Listing expectation has spread to most other sports and with it comes fame and prize money that lifts those at the peak of their game to millionaire status.

Unfortunately these rewards are graded by the popularity of each individual sport and in particular, women's sport delivers far lesser pay days.  National standards have descended to a low ebb with the knowledge that the very pinnacle of sport - the Olympics - have been tainted because the prestige of winning gold medals is so equated with national pride that entire teams have been subjected to a regime of clandestine drug cheating under government auspices.

Despite strict drug testing regimes in place, if the national resources of a country's science establishment is directed at achieving sporting fame it is not a level playing field.  No wonder match fixing is an increasing sporting phenomenon !

Saturday, 7 January 2017

Indonesia - Our Close Neighbour !

For most Australians our understanding of Indonesia is restricted to a visit to the holiday island of Bali.  The Balinese cater to Australian tastes because that keeps the money flowing but relations between the two countries have always been tense.

When Indonesia emerged from Dutch rule at the end of the second world war it's first president  - "Bung ""  Sukarno was openly hostile to Australia.  He often claimed that it was inevitable that his country would eventually invade and rule Australia, but Sukarno backed a Communist insurgency and when a coup failed he was replaced by General Suharto.

Suharto was a strict dictator.  Under his command the army purged the Communist movement and thousands died.  During his rule Portugal walked away from its colony in East Timor and Australian prime minister Gough Whitlam gave Indonesia the nod to invade.  This occupation was brutal.

Both the Indonesian police and the Indonesian military act as independent units within the Indonesian government..  In East Timor they took over money making business opportunities and reduced the   locals to serfdom.   In the inevitable revolt Australia was instrumental in helping the East Timorese gain their freedom.   This created Australian enmity in some higher Indonesian military officers.

Once again a clash between Indonesia and Australia is waiting in the wings because of Indonesian avarice in the half of Papua New Guinea now occupied by Indonesia.  The Morning Star movement is seeking independence and an armed insurgency is in progress.  Officers with the experience of East Timor are now at the top of the Indonesian military hierarchy - and this present spat seems to be mainly prejudice remaining from that era.

The fact that American Marines are training near Darwin is unsettling Indonesia and joint Indonesian and Australian training exercises have been uncomfortably similar to the unrest in Indonesian Papua New Guinea.  A general with an axe to grind against Australia has been quick to halt military ties and claim Australia is recruiting spies from his military personnel.

Wise heads in the Indonesian government will probably hose this down and it will be of short duration, but long term relations between the two countries depends on whether we can obtain religious harmony - and the auspices are not promising.

Indonesia is a predominantly Muslim country and it has a secular constitution.  It is also a democracy which elects its leaders.   An Indonesian who happens to be a Christian is running for high office and hard line Muslims have quoted an obscure verse in the Koran which forbids Muslims to put in a positions of power a person other than a fellow Muslim.   When this Christian challenged that status he was accused of blasphemy - which carries a long prison sentence.

What is alarming is the vast crowds hard line Muslims have been able to bring to the streets to support this contention.  Muslims with a secular outlook have been galvanized to demonstrate and to a large extent this is being provoked by the insurgency which has erupted into civil war in the Middle East.

The future relationship between Indonesia and Australia will probably hinge on whether IS can be defeated and Muslim relations with the rest of the world amicably restored.   It is this call for world jihad that is fuelling the present unrest in our near neighbour !

Friday, 6 January 2017

Life's Lucky Lottery !

One hundred and seventy thousand Australians have received a letter from Centrelink accusing them of receiving some form of overpayment, and according to Social Services Minister Christian Porter,  one in every five does not owe any money.

It seems that some bright mind thought up the idea of cross checking the records of the Social Services department with that of other government entities - such as the taxation office.  Unfortunately in this age of the computer this cross check is an automated system which fails to take into account the various anomalies between different forms of record keeping.   The end result is an automatic declaration of guilt and a demand that the excess be repaid.

It is quite possible that the shock of receiving such a demand may push some people to suicide.   In some households it has generated absolute panic and it is not helpful that the phone lines to the Social Security Rights hotline have been jammed with callers trying to get basic information to help them sort out this mess.

Typical of interactions between government departments a row is brewing over conflicting demands. Centrelink is checking back over a six year period while the tax office requires taxpayers to retain their records for just five years.   The number of citizens who lack any form of retained records will be legendary - and the onus of proof is always on the citizen to refute the claimed debt.

Social security is money that comes from the public purse and the authorities certainly have a duty to see that it is distributed legally and according to the prescribed formula but we have so many interpretations that apply to individual benefits that simply running them through a computer is almost guaranteed to produce errors.   In this case, the error is always against the claimant and the department is demanding the return of that money.

Sadly, it is the tone of these demanding letters that strike fear.   Communications from social security that requires some sort of action on the part of the beneficiary always comes with a veiled threat.  It usually suggests that failure to comply within time guidelines may see benefits cease.  The threat of no further payments is implicit on compliance.

No doubt vast numbers of people will find themselves undergoing harrowing interviews in Centrelink offices as they try to sort out these alleged over payments.   Where a genuine error has occurred and there is money owing the recovery process may vary.  Centrelink may simply withdraw funds from a debtors bank account but usually seeks repayment by instalment.

No doubt the bad publicity and public anguish will have political repercussions that will see this over payment crisis swiftly resolved.   Where payments are actually stopped and the restoration takes place by settling the perceived problem the  correspondence from Centrelink offices often leaves beneficiaries seething.

When the stoppage was not the fault of the beneficiary but was a Centrelink interpretation there is never an apology.   Resumption of the benefit is signalled with a message that states  "  You have been granted ......   ".     An occasional tone of contrition would go a long way in repairing ruptured relationships !

Thursday, 5 January 2017

Knowing Your Rights !

Here we are just a few days into a new year and it is likely that some of the presents we received at Christmas are not working properly.   Hopefully, the person who gave us that present remembers where they bought it and can find either a receipt or its listing on their credit card account.   It is protected by Australian Consumer Law and if it is faulty we have the right to what is called "The Three R's " - Refund - Repair - or Replacement - and that choice is ours.

Surprisingly, some shopping chains that should know better try and bluff people out of their consumer rights.  They tell the customer that this complaint has nothing to do with them and the item must be returned and negotiated with the manufacturer.    Wrong !   A faulty item needs to be returned to where it was purchased, and the choice of the "Three R's " applies at that point.  But you do need proof that you are returning it to the place of purchase.

Then there is the matter of a "timed "guarantee.   Most manufactured items come with a twelve months warranty but that is in addition to an "implied warranty "that applies to all items.   That demands that the item is safe, lasting, free of faults, of acceptable quality and will perform its function for a reasonable period of time.    If the product does not meet that guarantee you are entitled to a remedy.

An old trick of the trade is for the seller to unpack the returned item and refer the complainant to the usual accompanying notice that instructs that in the event of a warranty claim the item must be returned to the manufacturers factory.  Manufacturers expect to sell their goods in every Australian state and in many overseas countries.   Consumer laws are individual state matters and may not even exist in some overseas countries, hence this general law applies where no consumer law exists.  When the sale takes place in an Australian state, that states consumer law is paramount.

Because negotiating with the manufacturer is time consuming many retailers try and bluff the customer out of their consumer rights.   Usually, making it clear that you are aware of your rights brings compliance, but it is certainly worth lodging a complaint with Fair Trading if a claim is refused.  Sever penalties are imposed on retailers who do not meet their obligations.

Redress does not require a complete product failure to apply.  Many products promise a range of functions and should you find that one of these is not applicable in your area this must be made abundantly clear at the time of purchase.  You have every right to expect all the manufacturers claims to be met.

To add to profit margins, many resellers suggest you take an "extended warranty "cover on your purchase.   You should ask that they fully explain just what is involved in this cover because in many cases you are simply replacing at a cost what is free for the first half of the period covered by your consumer rights.   In the event of a fault in that time, the cost is borne by the insurance company.

These forms of redress do not apply if the customer has simply "changed their mind "and want to return the goods.   Some retailers cheerfully accept returns after the festive season but that is a matter of goodwill, not law.  A brochure fully explaining state consumer law is freely available from any office of Fair Trading.

Wednesday, 4 January 2017

" Sin " Taxes

It is surprising - to the point of amazement - how little attention the Australian media has given to a law change that took place in America at the same time as their presidential election.  The Americans are given to holding what amount to mini referendums on issues that collect enough signatures to go on the ballot and Californians were asked to make a decision on the legalization of Marijuana.

This presidential election drew world media attention because of the amazing progress billionaire Donald Trump made winnowing through the ranks of contenders for the oval office and his tussle with Hillary Clinton that enabled him to snatch victory.    The world concentrated on the rantings of "the Donald " to the exclusion of other issues.

California is the biggest and most populous American state and it has just turned on it's head the entire American drug  outlook.   The people voted to decriminalize the personal possession on what had been a narcotic that could land you in prison for a life term and in effect make it legal for people to smoke this product for recreational purposes.

America now has a serious conflict between Federal and state law.  Possession or use of Marijuana is still a crime under Federal law and it will be enforced vigorously.  Several smaller states had held similar referendums and the Feds have induced the banking industry to refuse to accept funds generated by this activity.  Now the sheer size of the California reversal makes continuing that stance impractical.

Basically, world thinking seems to equate Marijuana as a recreational drug to equality with alcohol.  Alcohol in moderation is legal and widely tolerated  in most countries and laws come into force when it is used to excess.  Similar restrictions now apply to Marijuana in the blood stream for those driving vehicles.

That Californian decision could be the tipping point.   It is hard to see how a significant portion of the American population can legally use Marijuana as a recreational drug while the rest of the country has prohibition imposed and lawbreakers are condemned to prison terms.   This legal change will probably take hold in other countries.

The tax ramifications are enormous.   The world alcohol industry contributes heavily to the economy of most countries by way of the tax income stream.  This Californian law change entitles individuals to grow a given number of Marijuana plants - for their own consumption.  It is highly likely that Marijuana may actually replace alcohol as the prime recreational substance and if this is not encompassed in the tax stream there will be a serious tax shortfall.

The original decision to restrict Marijuana was probably a knee jerk reaction which has been softening on the world scene. Detection of small amounts here in Australia usually bring just a caution and it seems inevitable that pressure for legalization will now increase.  If the government decides to decriminalize Marijuana use for recreational purposes it would be wise to make sure that the production and distribution are contained within a similar tax structure to alcohol.   It seems that what are often referred to as the "sin taxes " are an integral support of the Australian economy.


Tuesday, 3 January 2017

The CRISPR Era !

When the American "Manhattan " project split the atom for a long while the technical secret of how that was achieved was shared by a bevy of top world scientists.  Some of them with socialist leanings were unhappy that such a terrible weapon was exclusively in the hands of a western government and leaked the details to the Soviet Union.  Very quickly nuclear weapons entered the arsenals of five of the worlds great powers.

Now a new scientific discovery has been made and there is every chance that it will have an equal impact on the world we live in.   That discovery got the name CRISPR-cas9 and it allows the basic DNA of plants and animals to be subtracted or added to, resulting in a modification of what  each individual plant or animal becomes.

We now have gained the ability to process genetics and this could allow the DNA that results in a disease being removed, and replaced with DNA that delivers entirely different characteristics. We have gained the ability to shuffle the building blocks of life and create beings of our own making.

This discovery appalls some people - and electrifies others.  To some, it takes us where humans have no right to go, and to others it opens the way to a utopia where diseases may be conquered and this earth may be so bountiful that the prospect of famine is banished forever.

What horrifies some religious people is that CRISPR delivers the prospect of what some describe as "designer babies ".   It would be technically possible to introduce DNA changes that result in babies who will grow to a predetermined height and have predetermined hair colour, eye colour and general characteristics completely foreign to both the mother and fathers DNA     There seems to be few basic limitations on what can be achieved with CRISPR.

Any hope that this could be kept a tightly classified secret went out the window when the entire process was written-up in scientific papers and published on the Internet.   To make matters worse, the equipment necessary to process CRISPR can be found in any functioning high school science laboratory and is not of a complicated or expensive nature.

Of course scientists and governments have urged caution and compiled a moral code that they hope will apply to CRISPR technology, but the secret is out and the commercial opportunities will not be lost on individual scientists - who are free to make their own experiments in private.

It also seems likely that CRISPR will be very good to us here in Australia.    The Great Barrier Reef is one of the wonders of the world and it is here on our doorstep - and warmer oceans and bleaching are destroying the coral.   No doubt science will use CRISPR to modify the coral type to accommodate warmer water and the inevitable runoff from farming and mining activities along our northern coast.

There is the expectation that planet Earth will be home to ten billion people by mid century and we are looking to our vast inland for new food production. CRISPR has the capacity to create plants that require less water and at the same time deliver several crop seasons in the one year.   It is quite possible that we may develop an entirely new food type that relishes our dry inland and goes a long way towards becoming our key export.

As we found with the atom bomb, there is no way to backtrack and unlearn scientific discoveries once they are made.  CRISPR is now a fact of life.Now we have to learn to live with whatever it delivers  on the world stage !