Ratcheting Up The Risk !

This week there was another "incident " in the South China sea.    The United States exercised its "Freedom of Navigation "" in International waters rights by sending a warship close to manufactured islets claimed by China.   These same islets are claimed by several other nearby nations and were recently the subject of an investigation under the Law of the Sea.   The ruling by this International court debunked their validity as a land mass to be granted territorial waters rights.   This ruling is being ignored by China.

The protest by China over the presence of the guided missile Destroyer  USS  Decatur is that the vessel infringed Chinese Territorial waters.  This particular man made islet in part of the Paracel islands and is known as "Xisha " in Chinese.   The Chinese are claiming that all these islets are Chinese territory and therefore have a twelve mile exclusion zone, permitted under International law.

The United States claims that the USS Decatur passed well clear of this claimed twelve mile territorial zone - which it does not recognise anyway - and threats were issued by the Chinese naval authorities.   It seems that China is claiming authority over the entire South China sea and is demanding that aircraft flying over it seek permission from Chinese air control.   It seems only a matter of time before a similar demand is made on ships using International shipping routes.

The United States and several, other countries - including Australia - regularly send naval units through the South China sea to uphold the validity of the right to sail through International waters.  So far the Chinese have not challenged passenger jets using that route, but there have been issues when war planes of various nations have faced a challenge.   On one occasion, this resulted in a collision between an American surveillance plane and a Chinese fighter jet.

Many people who closely watch world affairs are concerned that the Chinese may think the run up to this years Presidential election in America is the right time to turn the screws in their sovereignty demand in the South China sea.   Whoever is elected will not take office until early next year and whatever move is made will have to be countered by the present holder of office - and they may consider Obama weak because of his hesitancy in Iraq and Syria.

Allowing China to exercise right to stop passage through the South China sea would have a huge impact on world trade.    This is an International "choke " point like both the Suez and Panama canals and any interruption to sea traffic would be disastrous.   China could use such power to discriminate against nations disputing its demands as a powerful financial lever.

This issue is not helped by the recently elected president of the Philippines.   The Philippines has long been a United States ally but it is now cosying up to China and seems to be retreating from its claim on this particular islet.   China may use that retreat to enhance its demand to control navigation rights to the entire area.

The last few weeks of Obama's presidency may be a time of high risk in the South China sea.  The chance of a minor incident escalating may tip the balance and take matters out of control if China decides that the times are in its fasvour !