A Lesser Confrontation !

All through the years of the cold war the world trembled at the prospect of a nuclear exchange between America and Russia.  Both countries remained on hair trigger alert with nuclear armed bombers constantly in the air and silo based missiles targeting enemy cities.

The tension eased with the collapse of the Soviet Union.   The nuclear club had extended its membership but China was less threatening as it embarked on a quest to become the manufacturing centre for the world.   The main " unknown " was the belligerent regime in North Korea that was amassing one of the worlds biggest armies and was intent on developing both ICBM's and nuclear warheads.

Today, North Korea is a bit of a joke in many circles.  It is constantly threatening nuclear war on both South Korea and the United States and yet is is probably one of the least developed regimes on the planet.  It is constantly wracked with famine and when seen from space its countryside resembles the dark age of Europe - bereft of light in contrast to teeming Asia next door.

North Korea may be a major threat sometime in the near future but at present it lacks the ability to hit major distant targets and it is slowly gaining the skill to miniaturise nuclear war heads to fit on ICBM's.    If it continues on that course the world powers may agree to take action to neutralise the threat.

The world was not unduly fussed when both India and Pakistan tested nuclear technology and joined the nuclear club.  They were both deemed " civilized "  countries although their mutual enmity ran deep and stemmed from the breakup of the old British Raj which once ruled India. This nuclear arsenal seemed more a matter of self defence than destined for attack.

India and Pakistan have fought two brief wars before they gained nuclear technology and in both cases the cause was Kashmir.   When Britain granted India independence it was soon clear that the Hindu and Muslim religions could not peacefully coexist in one country.   The only answer was to split India and create the country of Pakistan and this led to a great migration as Muslims quit India for Pakistan and Hindus left Pakistan for the safety of India.

One small segment of the old India remained undecided.  The residents of Kashmir were predominantly Muslim but they were not keen to come under Pakistani rule.  They wanted independence, and that was promised after a vote - that never took place.  Kashmir is jointly ruled by India and Pakistan, divided by what is termed the " line of control ".

The problem is that Pakistan has a history of military coups and even when it has a civilian government control is far from guaranteed.  The country has a border with Afghanistan and elements of the military have fostered al Qaeda because that serves their interest and it is highly likely that Osama bin Laden was sheltered under their orbit.   The Americans did not announce their raid once they discovered his presence and had they done so he would most likely have been spirited away to safety.

These same anti western elements inside the Pakistani government are stirring trouble by sending saboteurs into India and there is fresh fighting along the Kashmiri line of control.   India is unlikely to first use nuclear weapons in anger but just how secure the arsenal is in Pakistan is an open question. There is a constant fear that extremist elements could supply nukes to terrorist groups.

Perhaps that is the greatest possibility of a nuclear exchange running out of control.   Should an Indian city be annihilated  by a Pakistani supplied nuclear bomb there is no doubt that India would retaliate.    That makes Kashmir the most dangerous place on earth when it comes to the trigger for a nuclear war !