Its the oldest gag in the world ! Someone claims to have cracked the perfect betting system - to predict certain winners. It draws interest on social media with a story of how this lucky punter turned fifty dollars into a motza of fifty thousand dollars - in just one month. Incredibly, this lucky person is also very generous. He is offering to share his secret - for just a one hundred dollar sign-up fee !
That old saying " That if it looks too good to be true - then it probably is " certainly applies. It works on the same principle as a Ponzi scheme in requiring a constant flow on new suckers to counterbalance the losers - who drop out when their fortune fails to materialize.
It certainly deserves marks for ingenuity. Each punter receives a personal email before the weekend races with several horses selected to at least run a win or a place. These selections covers most of the field, scattered over the people eagerly awaiting them and therefore some of them must come out financially in front. They are the ones who gleefully endorse the system - and bring in new entrants. Those that complain are simply ignored - and their email predictions cease.
The betting public are conditioned to believe in incredible miracles. Punters usually vaguely know of someone in their circle who once backed a horse than won at hundred to one odds - or perhaps just took top prize in a Melbourne cup sweep. We do tend to glorify our successes - and tactfully forget those losing moments.
Years ago a Hobart man devised an algorithm that allowed him to very successfully spread winning bets across the racing field and return him millions of dollars. That is a secret that remains locked in his mind, but he did share his success with the public by funding the magnificent Museum of New Art ( MONA ) which is a prime destination for tourists visiting Tasmania.
Like the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, the lure of luck delivering sudden wealth powers both the greedy - and the desperate. The odds of winning the ultimate jackpot from a poker machine - are millions to one - and yet countless punters pour their pay packets into these machines every week. Every few weeks Lotto has a jackpot draw where a multi-million prize is up for grabs. Most people dream of the life they would lead if luck granted them its favour, but in reality such success often breaks up families and provokes deep emnity as it releases the demons of greed and envy in others.
One such fortune is still meandering through the courts over a dispute over who were the members of the winning syndicate in a workplace situation. Many such syndicates are formed by way of a nod of agreement around the lunch table and no formal listing is ever put to paper. Not all entrants are prompt at paying their dues - further complicating this entitlement issue.
Perhaps those considering this offer of winning race predictions would be wise to give thought to a trait of nature. If they discovered a formula that would allow them to consistently pick winners at the race track, what would they do with it ?
The vast majority of people would live the good life by simply placing winning bets to deliver the money to achieve that outcome. Why would they go to the trouble of running a complicated scheme that involves personal time and effort - and requires a membership fee from applicants ?
That simple analysis would certainly prevent certain loss and heartbreak !
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