In just a few days the people of the United Kingdom vote in a referendum that may decide the fate of the European Union. After the end of the second world war a far sighted Frenchman - Jacques Delors - proposed forming an economic community in Europe and one of its aims was to enmesh Germany in a union with other countries and prevent German militarism from reemerging and leading to World War 111.
Initially it was billed as a "Common Market " and the aim was to promote trade between member countries to the exclusion of the rest of the world. Britain - then still ruling many far flung colonial regimes and retaining close links with Commonwealth countries - was a holdout. The capital and nerve centre of this new conglomerate - was Brussels.
Britain eventually changed its mind but was blocked from entry by an intransigent France. When this was overcome, many imports from countries like Australia and Canada were blocked by Common Market embargos and entry to Britain by Commonwealth citizens was through the gateway marked for "foreigners ".
There is no doubt that the speed which what was now called the "European Union " expanded was unwise. Countries with weak economies that were unable to meet the standards required by the EU were granted entry on the basis that it was hoped they would "catch up " - and in some quarters the ambition changed - there was hope that the EU might morph into an "United States of Europe " ruled from Brussels.
Over the years change was rapid. The "Schengen Plan " introduced visa free travel between many EU countries. The delay and visa inspection at national borders was eliminated, but Britain did not join that accord, and later the most far reaching aim - a EU currency with the creation of the "Euro "- was rejected when Britain opted to retain the pound.
In recent years the cohesian of the EU has been stormy. Some member countries have verged on bankruptcy, leading to the Euro crisis and huge bailouts. Civil war in the Middle East and Africa has created a flood of migrants surging across the Mediterranean and causing far right politics to emerge to oppose their settlement in Europe. What is called "economic migration " is causing disquiet as richer member countries find their borders attacked by those seeking the benefits of their welfare state.
The religious balance of Europe is changing. Europe was overwhelmingly Christian, but these refugee hordes are Islamic and their propensity for large families will bring with it a religious imbalance. Muslim Turkey is knocking on the door and its help in stemming the migrant flow may see it granted entry. At the very least, Turks may gain access to the Schengen plan - and with it visa free travel.
The polls show that this British referendum is too close to call - and in recent days the swing seems to favour Brexit. The result may cause a stampede within Britain if Scotland, Ireland and Wales disagree with the verdict and opt for their own independence. A Brexit vote will undoubtedly upend the present trade regimen in place across Europe. What emerges from the negotiations that would follow is the great unknown.
Fragmentation of the EU could destabilize the world order. The EU is an important trading block with influence on a fast emerging China and an expansive Russia. Should that influence decline because it falls apart the world will become a vastly more dangerous place.
The outcome of this June 23 referendum may set the tone of future world stability ! Or instability !
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