A " Changed " Europe !

The opinion polls hinted that " Brexit " would be the decision delivered by United Kingdom voters, but the ramifications are not entirely clear to all.  A British exit from the EU will have far reaching consequences across the entire world - and it comes at a time when the leadership of America is about to be decided in an unusual contest of individuals.

David Cameron has offered his resignation and it is likely that Boris Johnson will be his replacement. The Tories are deeply divided and arch socialist Jeremy Corbyn will be a serious contender at the next election. The "United " term of the United Kingdom is now in doubt.

Scotland voted 62% in favour of " Remain " and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has made it clear that a second independence referendum is now inevitable.   It is quite possible that similar pressure will develop in Ireland and Wales and Britain may devolve into a nation called " England ".    If that happens, the power of the exchequer will be vastly diminished and it will no longer be a major power in world affairs.

That power was exemplified by having one of the five permanent seats at the United Nations Security council - and the right to implement " Veto ".   America, Russia, China, France and Britain were accorded superpower status because they were the countries armed with nuclear weapons.   Others have joined this nuclear club, but none have been accorded the right of " Veto " and all five have submarines deployed with ICBM capacity.

The only viable British base for it's fleet of nuclear powered submarines is in Scotland and those Trident subs are overdue for renewal.   If Scotland chooses independence it has signalled it would require the base to be closed and there is already budget difficulties in finding the money to build a new submarine fleet.  A Scottish withdrawal would certainly bring this issue to a head.

Should what would be left of the United Kingdom turn to Labor to govern and Jeremy Corbyn become prime minister it is quite clear that he would seek unilateral nuclear disarmament.   The Trident nuclear submarines are the only serious British deterrent to a nuclear war.  Land based missiles in silos and nuclear bombs carried by aircraft are vulnerable to a first strike, hence any country that lacks submarines loses credibility.

All this comes at a time when there are doubts about the ability of  NATO to respond to a challenge. The nations of Europe were quick to shelter under the American nuclear umbrella when Soviet Russia was actively trying to impose Communism on the world.  The threat of Soviet tanks rolling through the Fulda gap and overrunning Europe was very real.

The economic collapse of Russia removed that threat and the European economies declared a " peace dividend ".   They reduced spending on arms and the will to go to war to defend their neighbours has sharply dwindled.  In a crisis, there would be back sliding.

If Britain abandoned its nuclear weapons, European defence leadership would pass to France - and at a time when China is expanding into the South China sea and Russia is showing aggression in Ukraine the Baltic states are getting nervous.

That referendum in the United Kingdom have tipped over the chess board of world power.   We await with interest to see how the pieces are arrayed for the next game !