A doomed city ?

An ominous decision hangs over the New Zealand city of Christchurch.  There is a real fear that the city may have to be abandoned because the future indicates a continuation of unending destruction.

Christchurch is New Zealand's second biggest city, with a population of about 350,000.   New Zealand is located on the socalled " Ring of Fire " and every part of the country is prone to earthquakes.  That is something it's citizens have learned to live with, but recent events beneath Christchurch show no signs of ending.

It is impossible to predict earthquakes, but the people who study that science are becoming alarmed at the severity and continuation of aftershocks - and past experience suggests that instead of steadily diminishing - there may be an even bigger quake on the way.   It seems that there are even more fault lines under the city - and therefore the future is totally uncertain.

What is known is that reconstruction of some suburbs may be a very bad idea.   The sub-surface has suffered severe liquifaction and this area will never present a suitable base for home foundations.  As a result, if Christchurch is re-constructed it will be a very different - and much smaller city.

Then there is the matter of public confidence.  A lot of cities have suffered and survived earthquakes.  There are usually aftershocks - but eventually these diminish and life returns to normal.   There is no guarantee that this is going to happen in Christchurch - and the present almost daily aftershocks have sapped the will of it's citizens to remain at risk.

If the city is abandoned it will be a huge hit on the country's finances - and each individual home owner will face financial disaster.  A lot will depend on whether insurance companies cover loss due to earthquake in a country with a known history of such events.

Many people regard Christchurch as their home and will not want it abandoned, but that decision will have to be taken if the earth continues to move.    It will be a very big decision - and whichever way it goes - it will not please everyone !