Ken Ring is a highly respected New Zealand long range weather forecaster - and he has predicted that Christchurch will experience another major earthquake sometime this coming Sunday.
There is a wide school of thought that suggests that earthquakes can not be predicted, and to thumb their noses at Ken Ring a big group of geologists, politicians, engineers and broadcast people plan to hold a long lunch in one of the city's biggest stone buildings.
It will be interesting to see what odds the betting agencies give on this earthquake happening - and precisely what criteria meets the definition of success.
Christchurch has had severe after shocks every day since the big one, and there is every chance that another may occur on Sunday. At the same time, having lunch in a building prone to extreme damage because of it's construction style would not be a good idea for any sane and sober person.
If Sunday passes without even a minor tremblor Ken Ring's reputation will suffer serious damage, but if the ground shakes and those people at lunch get buried under rubble he will be dubbed " a guy who made a lucky guess " by some cynics - and the " greatest forecaster of all time " by most other people.
What Christchurch people choose to do this Sunday depends on whether they believe in lucky four leaf clovers - or whether they are fatalists.
It will be interesting to read the results in the following days newspapers !
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