Another Lost War !

 At last we are coming to the end of Australia's longest war.  Unfortunately this will not end in the victory that was promised twenty years ago when we decided to support America in going after Osama bin Laden's terrorist movement which was making Afghanistan its new home.

There is a rather eerie resonance between the outcomes in both Vietnam and Afghanistan.  They were both wars we undertook with good intentions.  We tried to impose our ideas of democracy and freedom that were alien to the wishes of the people who had lived there for centuries.

In particular, Afghanistan has had a troubled history in world affairs because it is positioned between India and Asia.  It has seen countless occupations by the great powers and in the 1800's with Britain ruling India, Russian encroachment  convinced the British to invade Afghanistan and install an unpopular king on its throne.

That was a disaster. A British led army of mainly Indian Sepoys was massacred as it tried to leave the country.  Of course the British sent a bigger army to enact revenge, but Afghanistan is tribal and it has never known peace. Its ways are foreign to us.  It lives by the laws of earlier centuries and women are subservient - and girls go uneducated.

When  both America and Australia pull out in several months time our erstwhile enemy, the Taliban will rule.  They fought a successful guerilla war and it is likely they will close schools and forbid girls to be educated once we leave.

This war has been a costly experience for Australia.  It cost us the death of forty-one of our soldiers and millions of treasure deploying an army there over the years. It is likely that many Afghans who fought on our side will ask to be repatriated to Australia to save them from  Taliban revenge.  When we left Vietnam that provoked an amarda of " boat people " arriving on our shores.

For a " middling power " like Australia security depends on defence treaties with powerful friends who will come to our aid if we are attacked.  That usually also means our involvement in punative actions if those great powers become involved  in skirmishes over trade deals or commercial matters.  The great powers to which we are allied are constantly changing as the evolution of the world progresses.

The fast emerging country with the capability to dominate world trade is China.  It has set its military footprint on the South China sea, an international trade route vital to Australia and it seems inevitable that there must eventually be a sea clash if the navies of other countries are denied access to this waterway.

The combat situation in Afghanistan is almost over, but world tensions mean other flashpoints await  !