Welcoming " Claudia " !

This fire emergency will not be over until we get sustained heavy rain to saturate the fuel load and the most likely reason that will happen is having a cyclone form in the north in what we term the " wet season ".

We have already experienced the first cyclone of the new year off the coast of Western Australia and that projected the rain that has been helping the firefighters get the upper hand in the past few days, but a low pressure system developing east of Darwin looks more promising and this is expected to develop into cyclone " Claudia ".

If Claudia performs to the hopes of the weather people it could be the salvation that ends this bushfire emergency and brings drought relief to many of the country's farmers, not to mention repairing the water supply to numerous country towns.   Claudia looks like being exactly the right thing - in the right place and at the right time.

Unfortunately, cyclones are capricious beasts.  A lot will depend on the cyclone strength and exactly where it chooses to roam.  It will gain strength when over the northern ocean and if it chooses to make landfall it is likely to project a rain band that reaches as far south as Tasmania, but luck will choose where that rain falls and many areas may miss out.

At this stage, Claudia is expected to intensify to category two and that is far below the strength of " Tracy " which destroyed Darwin on Christmas eve of 1974.   Category five cyclones are the most destructive but even lesser strengths deliver dangerous winds and weather watch is warning our northern residents to make preparations.  They would be wise to  stockpile food and have a clear idea of where emergency shelters are located in their area.

There seems little doubt that we have been experiencing a weather change. Summers have been getting hotter and we have recently broken long standing temperature records and most people put the blame on global warming.  What remains unclear is exactly what a hotter climate might deliver in the way of events we thought were safely confined to the far north of Australia.

The thought of a tropical cyclone reaching as far south as Sydney is terrifying.  Our homes are not built for that sort of weather and the destruction would be immense.  Then there are both the animals and the pathogens that thrive in the heat and a permanent weather change may bring a creeping invasion moving into new territories.

This bushfire summer may be a warning of things to come.  It is heartening to see global warming being taken seriously by many doubters but taking steps to create change is still in its infancy. Perhaps the fire destruction we have just witnessed is a preview of the summers that lay ahead.  The summer we used to enjoy is fast becoming the season we will come to dread because of the fire and destruction that is inevitable.

In the future, winter may be the safer season - and the one we prefer  !