It could not be clearer ! China's two overseas territories are rejecting rule from Beijing despite the ruling Communist party of China threatening to impose its rule by force. Taiwan has just had a general election and its leader has received fifty-seven percent of the vote. President Tsai Ing-wen has cautiously held Beijing at bay as it demands that her island state accept a similar " one country, two systems " regime as applies in Hong Kong.
Hong Kong has recently embarrassed China when millions of its residents took to the streets in angry demonstrations against a law change that would have imposed the mainland court system and punishments for crime in the offshore colony. When the proposed law was withdrawn but not cancelled the unrest virtually shut down the economy and even now the People's Liberation Army is still massed at the border and posing an intervention threat.
When the British colony of Hong Kong was handed back to China when its lease expired in 1997 a carefully crafted arrangement came into force. China agreed that a range of freedoms not available to residents of the mainland would exist for a fifty year term. The interpretation of just what that meant quickly came into dispute.
The people of Hong Kong expected to be able to elect their own form of government but Beijing insisted on vetting the candidates able to stand and only allow candidates with its blessing to appear on the voting paper. In this way, Beijing controlled the agenda and dissidents began to disappear mysteriously in Hong Kong and reappear on the mainland claiming to be repentant for their sins. There is a very evident mood of freedom in Hong Kong with residents wishing to maintain their autonomy as permanently separate from mainland control.
Taiwan is an island formerly known as Formosa. When the civil war ended with the defeat of the nationalists their remnant fled to Formosa and established a separate regime which was protected by a treaty with the United States. Communist China frequently shelled offshore islands and the US Navy reinforced its presence by sailing an aircraft carrier fleet through the Taiwan strait separating the two regimes.
Mainland China is fast achieving military parity with the United States and the two heavyweights are locked in an economic battle over tariffs which is straining the world economy. China has long threatened to resume control of Taiwan by force and should it do so this raises the question of American intervention. Would the US go to war to stop China invading Taiwan ?
Eventually, that is a question that Chinese leader Xi Jinping must make. Chinas has relentlessly isolated Taiwan by demanding other nations break relations with it if they wish to trade with mainland China. World opinion would probably side with China. Taiwan is a minor player in the world trade stakes and American protection of Taiwan has had more to do with stopping the Communist system expansion than affinity for the residents of Taiwan.
Xi Jinping has been remarkably tolerant with the unrest in Hong Kong. That electoral win by Tsai Ing-wen is a slap in the face for the Chinese leader in Beijing and it may move Taiwan closer to resolution in his mind. Sooner or later a resurgent China is going to put the Taiwan question to the test. What happens then is the division of opinion that will be forced on a very nervous world !
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