Saturday, 27 July 2019

The " Boris " Era !

Boris Johnson is now the United Kingdom prime minister.  He moved quickly to clear his predecessors ministers from the cabinet and replace them with others who shared his " no deal " outlook.  The government of Britain has lurched more to the right than during the reign of Margaret Thatcher.

Rightly or wrongly this Brexit mess must be settled in the next three months or it will be the EU that pulls the plug. Britain has placed its future in the hands of a man with some similarities to Donald Trump. He is a larger than life character who is careless with the truth.  His role in the last parliament was mainly white anting Theresa May in a brazen attempt to steal her job.

It should be remembered that when David Cameron put Brexit to a vote there were several EU countries considering bolting out the door.  These British extraction difficulties put that movement on hold and the EU has good reason not to move too gently with its terms or it will be accused of losing solidarity. Boris Johnson will need a miracle if he can persuade the EU to meet his terms.

One intractable issue has been the need for an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.  A customs barrier seems inevitable in a " no deal " exit and that will undo the harmony that put the time of the " troubles " to rest.  It would be disheartening to see Ireland revert to the days of shootings and bombings.

That other disturbing factor is how this divorce squares off with the " globalization " that is now the cornerstone of industry.  World industry competes to provide parts and the days of massive warehouses has given way to " just in time " deliveries that go straight onto the production line.  In particular, any tariff or inspection delays at the country's border will lead to job losses in the vital car and aircraft industries located in Britain.

The other vulnerable entity is the money market.  When Britain headed its days of empire the pound sterling was what the American dollar is today - the " world currency ".   London managed to keep a firm grip on exchange trading and it is inevitable that both France and Germany will insist that function is shared within EU once Britain cuts the ties. It is the fees that are attached to those money functions that keep the British economy afloat.

The future of Britain now rests firmly in Boris Johnson's hands.  It is possible that the pundits have misjudged his skills and he is much brighter than he appears. He will certainly win acclaim if he can extract Britain from this mess without a severe drop in the standard of living.   The world will be watching - with great interest  !

No comments:

Post a Comment