War with Iran ?

When someone starts blowing up oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz that looks like the first shots in a Gulf war. Iran has had a long term ambition to develop a nuclear weapon and it took a deal with the west to delay that until some time in the future.  Unfortunately, the United States has withdrawn from that deal and now all bets are off and Iran is again amassing enriched uranium as the prelude to creating a bomb.

Donald Trump has made it clear that he will prevent a nuclear Iran, even if that means going to war. Originally, this nuclear club restricted itself to the great powers of that era.  The United States, Britain, France, China and Russia.  Since then both India and Pakistan have forced their way into the list of nuclear armed nations and Israel - with a nod and a wink from the US - has a hidden nuclear arsenal.  Against all odds, the hermit kingdom of North Korea managed to acquire nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them by intercontinental ballistic missiles, eluding the restraints of the great powers.

One of the problems is that Iran is a theocracy.  It is run by religious zealots and it is clearly taking sides with the religious divide that exists in the middle east.  A nuclear Iran would destabilize the Arab world and there is always the chance that religion would see the nuclear deterrent pass into other hands amongst the tribes seeking a personal homeland.   The thought of misfits like Islamic State getting their hands on a bomb would be a nightmare.

What is frustrating is that Iran was abiding by the terms embedded in that nuclear deal and this is clearly confirmed by all the other co-signing nations.  The United States withdrew solely on the personal opinion of its president that he disliked the terms of the deal. Donald Trump's presidency is unlike that of any of his predecessors.

In about eighteen months America will decide if Donald Trump is given another term in office, or if a replacement will sit in the oval office.  Perhaps the other great world powers would be wise to demand that Iran stay its hand on enriching uranium until that event is determined.  A new incoming American president would most likely gladly re-enter the deal that Iran was honouring.  Donald Trump has not only withdrawn from the deal, he has imposed crippling sanctions on the Iranian economy.  Iran has a valid reason for complaint.

The danger is that with eighteen months in office Trump may decide to take up the war option.   In fact, Iran may be the one to start that war if its economy suffers to the point that its continuation as a viable trading nation is threatened.  These tanker attacks could serve the purpose of calling the Iranian population to arms.

It seems evident that the other great powers of this world need to deliver an ultimatum to Donald Trump.  There will be no support for a war with Iran.  That would certainly impose a limit on the action that an American president could take in a world united against such a war.