The " Taiwan " Question !

A very long time ago the whole western military strategy was concentrated on stopping Communism advancing from both China and the Soviet Union and to this end America guaranteed Taiwan protection from a Chinese Communist invasion.  General Chiang Kia  Shek was the loser in a Chinese civil war and he retreated to the island of Formosa, which was renamed Taiwan.

Today Taiwan is a heavily armed fortress which is successfully trading with the rest of the world. Communism imploded in the Soviet Union and China has emerged as a capitalist economy trading under the iron fist of what can only be described as a Communist dictatorship.  To trade with China, the rest of the world needs to kow tow to the Chinese claim that Taiwan is simply a " renegade province ".   China claims that eventually it will reclaim this island, by force if necessary.

China has recently devoted a bigger share of its trading surplus to developing a blue water navy capable of matching American sea power and the two powder kegs where these forces may collide are the South China sea - and Taiwan.  China claims sovereignty by virtue of man made islands in the South China sea and this has been rejected by the International law of the sea.   Should China seek to  control ship movements through this international waterway a military confrontation would be inevitable.

Taiwan is an enigma that has been losing a diplomatic battle with its giant neighbour.  Other nations can have diplomatic relations with just one, and not both.   China has used this to force Taiwan from membership of world bodies and its democratic form of government is a constant irritation to China's Communist leadership.  China openly claims that should Taiwan declare independence it would immediately reclaim the island using military force.

Taiwan's president, Tsai Ing-wen heads a party with independence on its manifesto but which is not pressing that as an issue at present.  In the past, the United States has sailed aircraft carriers and other warships through the Taiwan strait between the island and the mainland as a show of force to back its guarantee of protection for Taiwan.   That was a credible deterrent when China  fielded a massive land army and had merely coastal sea power.  Today, that sea power balance is approaching - marginal.

China is flexing its muscles by holding live fire exercises in the Taiwan strait.  This is clearly a form of intimidation, possibly more intended to test American resolve than to seriously threaten the Taiwanese government.  Taiwan is heavily armed with American made defence equipment but would be unlikely to win a long term war with its giant neighbour.   In the event of conflict, American assistance would be pivotal.

Should conflict emerge between China and Taiwan it would clearly present America with a crucial decision and much would depend on how that conflict originated.  The world pays lip service to that " one China " claim and should Taiwan declare independence world opinion could support China. It would be a huge step to go to war over what many would see as an internal matter of political control within the Chinese federation.

The days when Communism was seen as seeking world domination are long gone.  Perhaps many past treaties have lost their relevance !