A Growing Threat !

Xi Jinping now has supreme power to direct how China evolves its relationship with the rest of the world.  His " thoughts " are the directives for the Chinese Communist party and yet his plans for China's future are completely inscrutable.

The nations of the South Pacific will have misgivings to learn that China is seeking to establish a military base in Vanuatu. Chinese development money is being lavished on this island chain of just 270,000 people and this proposal would probably proceed in stages.  Firstly, a port where Chinese warships may call to refuel and be resupplied, then perhaps later an airfield.  A Chinese base on a Pacific island would certainly project military power over what is presently very much the preserve of the United States navy.

What is happening in the South China sea delivers a warning.  The Communist party no longer seeks to impose its doctrine on how other countries are governed but it does seek to protect its trading empire with military might.  It is clearly in a race to duplicate the naval and air power of America. That parity is likely to be achieved in a very few short years.

A Chinese intrusion by way of a South Pacific base poses a critical defence question for the smaller Pacific nations.  Most will adopt the stance taken by New Zealand.  They accept that their economy is incapable of financing the huge cost of competitive jet fighter aircraft, submarines and navy ships to form a credible defence force.  New Zealand will therefore be an undefended country, with military forces just capable of undertaking United Nations duties and responding to local emergencies.

Australia - with a population of twenty-four million - is small by world standards but fields the major defence establishment of this area but with a degree of integration with our United States ally.   It seems inevitable that this Chinese intrusion will see an increased United States presence on our soil to counter balance this growing threat.

The danger is that we may not be able to maintain our " arms length " alliance with the US and be driven into a closer military embrace.  The backbone of our defence needs has been the ANZUS treaty which has served us well when world tensions have been growing in other parts of the world, but now we have a military threat on our doorstep.

If China does not succeed with this Vanuatu proposal it seems inevitable that it will establish a base elsewhere.   There are many impoverished little island nations with docking potential and the land for an airstrip.  Chinese largesse to build island infrastructure and improve the way of life of their citizenry make acceptance inevitable.

The imponderable question is knowing just where Xi Jinping intends to take China.   That will not become clear until China achieves parity in military power with its American nemesis, but a military base in our neighbourhood is not good news !