We have a one day train strike looming in just over a week in New South Wales. The economists predict that if it happens it will come with a cost of a hundred million dollars simply because the normal activity of people getting to work will be disrupted and consequently the usual commercial activity that puts money in cash registers - and wages in peoples pockets - will come to a halt for a day.
Of course, it is not quite that simple. The vast majority of people who work in some sort of government job will still get paid as usual and so will those working in private industry on a " salary basis " as opposed to those engaged at a hourly rate and who punch a bundy clock to record their starting and finishing times.
Many of those " salaried " people will find some sort of business activity to do at home when the strike prevents them reaching the office, but the main loser will be their employer. There will not be so many customers in the shops that remain open and the coffee shops and restaurants that open will expect a very slow day. Few businesses are going to show a profit on the day of the strike.
The main people who will be seriously out of pocket will be the huge army of " casuals " who now make up a big segment of the work force, and they are the people who can least afford the loss of a days pay.
This one day train drivers strike just seems to be a return to the bad old days of union bosses flexing their muscles and making outrageous demands. It is a long time sine we last had a transport strike - or the petrol tanker drivers ceased making deliveries to service stations. Many industrial agreements of today outlaw strike action.
The train drivers - who earn in excess of $100,000 a year - are demanding a six percent pay rise each year for the next four years. The government has set a cap of 2.5% as the maximum pay increase across all government workers and should this 6% rise succeed it would spark an immediate demand for parity from police, fire brigade workers, hospital workers and the entire government spectrum. There would be no option other than price increases to fund the increase and it would set off an inflationary spiral that would harm our export competiveness and flow across the private sector.
Many people will wonder if this sudden demand from train drivers is sourced by the expansion of the Sydney rail network to accommodate an eleven percent increase in passenger numbers, causing driver overtime becoming essential, or whether this strike is a return to politics intruding on industrial harmony for political gain.
A lot depends on how the public view this strike. A demand for a 24% increase in pay over four years from those presently earning more than a hundred thousand dollars would not get support from many people, but others may blame the state government. Hopefully, cool heads may prevail and the trains may keep running next Monday.
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