It looks lie Sydney rail commuters are going to face a miserable bout of industrial action that will see some train services cancelled and others running well behind their normal time schedules. The militant Rail Tram and Bus Union ( RTBU} is demanding a six percent pay increase for each of the next four years and this collides with the 2.5% cap imposed on public sector wages by the government.
Last year rail passenger patronage increased by eleven percent and the government increased train movements to meet that demand. Additional train services brought the ageing system close to its capacity and seriously reduced the ability to cope with break downs or accidents. The whole thing broke apart when one of Sydney's electrical storms delivered lightning strikes and at the same time seventy drivers called in sick.
That is where this new schedule of increased train numbers has a fatal weakness. We have about four hundred train drivers and overtime is essential to make the system work. More drivers are being trained, but it takes time to get them to the required standard and safety issues mean that this can not be rushed.
This has delivered a huge advantage to the RTBU. A vote at a meeting of drivers approved industrial action in support of that pay increase, but the union is legally required to give advance notice of disruptive tactics. The stage seems set for a cat-and-mouse game with the unfortunate rail commuters stuck in the middle.
The entry level wage for a train driver starts at $ 75,000 a year, but most experienced drivers earn well in excess of $ 100,000. It can be argued that they share a responsibility similar to an airline pilot. A large number of passengers rely on their skill to arrive safely at their destination and this requires them to correctly evaluate the signals and traffic they encounter on the journey.
To most rail passengers that demand for a six percent raise each year for the next four years contrasts with the wage stagnation they face in their own lives. In particular, retail workers are barely achieving increases that match inflation and many are actually going backwards. Rail is an essential service and this demand seems sheer greed.
In the short term, some of those new services will be cancelled to reintroduce a little " elbow room " into the system but refusal of both scheduled and gap filling overtime will play havoc with schedules. All this is to start the day before Australia day - and if we get the usual Sydney summer afternoon lightning storms chaos seems inevitable.
Realists know that the drivers will not achieve that six percent increase. When the horse trading ends their wages will increase somewhere above the government 2.5% cap, but well short of the six percent demand. The union is simply taking advantage of a situation that enhances their bargaining power to extort an increase they can not achieve by any other means.
Sadly, a lot of unfortunate commuters are going to be late for work and many will face a long, tiring day before they make it home to their families, and if it becomes protracted the government will probably have to offer some sort of Opal fare concession to ease the pain.
The union will justify this chaos on the grounds that they are looking after the interests of their members and need this action to achieve the pay rewards to which they are entitled. In reality - it is because a situation has arisen - where they can !
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