That Spanish Confrontation !

What is happening in Spain is a danger humankind has faced dating back centuries.  Catalonia is a part of the country based on Barcelona in which the people speak a different language and have different customs.  There has been agitation to breakaway and form their own nation for a very long time and now a declaration of independence seems imminent.

This confrontation has overtones from a grim period of Spanish history.  This nation fought a bitter civil war in 1936-39 when politicians with Fascist leanings battled Communist ideology for control of the country.  The winner was a government headed by Francisco Franko who ruled with a rod of iron until his death many decades later.  Spain then returned to democracy, but the Catalonian question remained unanswered and it has now returned to centre stage.

The history books illustrate the misery such conflicts can deliver when the argument devolves into civil war.  In America the Confederacy resisted Abraham Lincoln's demand for unity and now - centuries later - that conflict is still a cause for agitation in the southern states. A military victory does not always ensure peace.

More recent civil wars in Sri Lanka and South American countries have left a toll of dead people and ruined economies.  In some cases the insurrection has brought freedom.  In others the governing forces have prevailed, but at a cost of imposing a reign of suppression on the rebels that merely forces hostile compliance.   The economic consequences last long after the last shot is fired.

In Spain this acrimony is not being handled well.   The Catalonian government called for a referendum on their future and the courts ruled that this was not permitted by the country's constitution.  The Catalonians decided to hold it anyway, and the central government sent in heavy handed national police to seize ballot boxes and voting material - and roughup and arrest those found organizing the vote.  The vast majority overcame these obstacles and recorded a vote, which was heavily in favour of independence.

If Catalonia declares independence it will not be recognised in Madrid and probably not by most of the rest of the world.  Madrid is threatening to dismiss the Catalonian assembly and impose its own rule and that could easily lead to armed conflict.  This whole mess would be better served by negotiation to achieve a peaceful outcome.

Spain is a member of the EU and if Catalonia achieves independence it would not be an automatic EU member.   Catalonia would be better served by achieving statehood within a Spanish Federation and Madrid would be wise to accept that course rather than impose its rule by force on an unwilling constituent.  Catalonia has a legitimate gripe that the tax regime takes more from the region than it returns in services.

Now it all depends on whether the people heading both the Spanish Madrid government and the Catalonian independence movement have the good sense to back off - and negotiate.   It might be helpful to involve other world leaders in a forum to make concessions more paletable  in achieving a working agreement.

Sadly, the history books recount that this is rarely the outcome to such conflicts.