Friday, 27 October 2017

New Islamic State Tactic !

Islamic State is not short of ready cash.  It has support throughout the Islamic world and its clever manipulation of social media in the west ensures a steady trickle of donated funds.  Now that its " Caliphate " dreams in Iraq and Syria have imploded it is devising new tactics to keep its revolution firmly in the headlines of world news.

The seizure of the Philippine city of Marawi seems a textbook illustration of what we can expect in the future.  Marawi was in a part of the Philippines which is heavily Islamic and it took a force of just nine hundred supporters to take control and create fear to send police and other defenders fleeing.  Once in control, the black flag was prominently displayed and they were able to maintain control during a 154 day siege before the army gained the upper hand.

While Islamic State ruled that city it seems that their experience in Mosul was the template for civic control.  The killed or departed Islamists left behind many videos illustrating the regime put in place in Mosul and bundles of cash money had been provided to allow this administration to secure the support of locals.

It was certainly a bloody occupation.  At least three hundred thousand refugees fled the city and when the army sought to regain control this led to a street by street battle which destroyed entire neighbourhoods.  Islamic State casualty figures are unknown, but at least 165 police and army fighters lost their lives and forty-five civilians were caught in the cross fire.  The city is now a blackened shambles and it will take both years and millions of dollars to rebuild.

Many Asian governments fear this will be the IS plan for the future.  The IS leaders regards their freedom fighters as expendable.  It only took nine hundred to gain control of Marawi and refusal to give ground resulted in the death of many defenders, but many others managed to mix with civilians and make an escape.   Because this civilian population was used as human shields, the invading Philippine army could not use the heavy weapons usual in a war situation.   The advantage was heavily with the Islamists.

IS must keep its name before the public or it will wither away.  It seems certain that its prominence in Iraq and Syria is ending and its extreme Wahabist views on how Islam should be practised bring it into opposition with the Islamic government in many countries.   The targets selected could be equally spread across many countries in both Asia and Africa, all of which guarantee maximum exposure on the world news scene.

Unfortunately, it seems that Islamic State will continue to be a toxic presence long after its influence wanes in the war zones of the Middle East.   Its ambitions find resonance in the minds of many in countries which purport to be friendly with the west and a steady stream of money flows from this source.

As long as Islamic State manages to maintain this war the settlement of peaceful Islamic followers in western countries will be viewed with suspicion.

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