It is said that those who fail to learn from history - are destined to repeat it ! Events between Russia and Ukraine bear a striking resemblance to what occurred between Germany and Poland in 1939. This raises the question of exactly what intentions Vladimir Putin has for Russia and how forcefully he will put them into practice.
There is no doubt what Adolph Hitler had in mind for Germany. It was his intention to conquer the whole of Europe by military force and impose a form of "Germanization " by way of culling what he considered inferior races and replacing them with Aryan German stock. It is likely that he would eventually try and impose this concept on the entire world.
Bluff and bravado let him get away with much territorial gain, until the unmistakeable invasion of Poland crossed the line that led to war. At the end of that war one of the victorious allies used military gains in defeating Germany to impose a Communist form of government on the nations reclaimed from German control - and this led to the "Cold War " between east and west that persisted for decades.
Fortunately, cool heads prevailed. The development of nuclear weapons imposed a stalemate. A nuclear exchange would destroy all involved and the concept of MAD - "Mutually Assured Destruction " - kept itchy fingers off the button. Eventually, the Soviet Union imploded financially and it seemed that the world had returned to stability.
The rise of Vladimir Putin as the undisputed Czar of Russia is a troubling event. Both Putin and Hitler achieved the pinnacle of power and in each case it is and was the dictates of those individuals which determine the course of history. What Putin has in mind is not clear.
The subversion of Ukraine by sending both men and materials to aid insurrection by a Russian speaking segment of the Ukrainian population is precisely the method Hitler used to subjugate his near neighbours. Putin rattles sabres by hinting that similar moves may be undertaken in the Baltic states and he seems determined to restore the authority of the old Soviet Union on what Russia claims to be it's national orbit of rule. The guise is to restore a closed trading market to counter the EU.
The Russian economy is reliant on oil and gas exports, and the drop in world oil prices has clipped Putin's wings in sharply expanding his military, and yet that remains a formidable force now that the United States no longer keeps a standing army in Europe. If Putin stirs trouble in the Baltic states it will constitute a challenge to NATO. Whether individual countries still have the resolve to meet such a challenge - is doubtful !
The alarming question is how much the deteriorating Russian economy will push Putin to beat the Nationalist drum to unite his people against what he will present as a threat to their country. His Crimean foray was wildly popular and he has full control of the Russian media. The levers of mind control are in his hands and so far he has been successful in destroying any form of opposition to his rule.
Putin is an enigma. He presents himself to the Russian people as a heroic man of action and there is a danger than the need for adoration may lead to military excess. We face an uncertain world with danger on many fronts. The rise of Islamization is roiling the Middle East and Africa - and it is also bubbling away within Russia. The rise of China raises many questions of future intentions and likely outcomes - and then there is the matter of rising sea levels and a warming planet.
The closest immediate danger is how Putin reacts to his worsening economy and whether it pushes him to aggression to mask the deficiencies in living standards which will affect his people. Just what thoughts are forming in his mind may involve the lives of billions spread across the globe.
Once again the fate of many rests on the decisions made in a single mind !
No comments:
Post a Comment