During all the long years of the "Troubles "in Ireland the main fear of the IRA was that a maverick Catholic would assassinate the Queen. Even ardent Republicans had a deep respect for Queen Elizabeth and the hard men of the IRA knew that their movement would suffer a savage backlash if that happened.
That fear is not present in the minds of today's Jihadists. The stature of the Queen - as a head of state - makes her a prime target and the very nature of her position requires that she move about publicly. Stringent security is in place but if the Jihadi planners select her for murder - then they will probably succeed. Planting a suicide bomber amongst the crowds drawn to the Queen would have a chance of success.
This upsurge of hate against all people who are not Sunni Muslims is reaching a crescendo - and we need to ask ourselves why ? It can be directly linked to the phenomenon we know as the "Arab Spring " - when the public rose up in Middle East countries and deposed tyrants, only to see their hopes dissolve into chaos as factions seized control, leading to bloodshed and slaughter.
The unifying factor was the emergence of Islamic State (IS) in the Syrian civil war. To use the phrase "Out of Nowhere " - freedom fighters suddenly emerged to seize vast tracts of Syria and Iraq and gain a great victory when they confronted the new Iraqui army. This force, formed and trained by the west and equipped with the latest equipment - turned and fled. Not only did IS win a huge victory, it gained the means to arm and equip the surge of freedom fighters that rushed to it's ranks in the belief that it was "unstoppable " !
What we are now seeing is a successful propaganda war that is winning over the hearts and minds of impressionable young men and women in all world countries. Many non Muslims are not only converting to that religion, but openly volunteering to wage war in what they see a s a great "adventure ". The same sort of savagery that emerged in vicious civil wars in Africa is being implemented against those coming under their control. Some are ordered to convert to Islam - or face death. Others are offered no such choice. The men are summarily slaughtered and their women and children divided as sexual pawns amongst the victors - or sold off into slavery.
The timidity of the west is fuelling the appeal of this crusade - and the rate of success is directly geared to the victories attained on the battlefield. It is even drawing in countries which we would expect to remain loyal to religious freedom and a democratic way of life. The biggest Muslim country in Europe is sending worrying signals to the west.
Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been steadily dismantling the secular form of government implemented by Kemal Ataturk at the end of the first world war. He is an avowed Islamist and when IS assaulted the border town on Kobane the Turkish military sat silent and watched from the Turkish side of the border. Erdogan displayed his true colours when he allowed those wanting to join IS to freely cross the border, but prevented defenders from joining the ranks of those fighting to defend the town. Western forces have been refused the use of Turkish air bases.
Turkey does have a legitimate grievance. It wishes to join the EU but the Christian countries of Europe are wary of an Islamic country with a huge population and have created numerous obstacles. The promise of eventual inclusion is hedged with ever changing conditions, and many in Turkey believe that the UN door will remain permanently shut. We may have missed a vital opportunity to shore up our European defences.
The question western heads of government now face is the conundrum of how to deal with IS ?
Our leader refuses to lead and without the might and power of the United States no other country is prepared to step into the breach. Unless the further expansion of IS can be curbed the drawing magnetic power of it's success will continue to fuel world recruitment - and we may see a behemoth emerge that is a real threat to world stability.
For Australia the IS threat is centred on our near neighbour - Indonesia. A new president is working to gain control of the levers of power and that country already has a dangerous undertone of Islamic fanatics, as evidenced by the Bali, Australian embassy, Mariot hotel - and other bombings. Once again, every IS success and the consequent publicity brings droves of new recruits to it's cause. Indonesia's retiring security chief has warned us that there is a growing danger - which we ignore at our peril.
It is often said that those who fail to learn from history are destined to repeat it. The era of appeasement that preceded the second world war comes to mind. Now it all depends if world leaders have the courage and convictions to make the hard decisions that are necessary - but which may not be popular with the masses.
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