Brinkmanship !

It seems that elements of the Russian Pacific fleet are steaming towards the east coast of Australia and there could be a parallel with what has been happening in Ukraine.   Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that his actions in Ukraine - which resulted in the shooting down of a Malaysian passenger aircraft and the death of all those onboard - was a legitimate need to protect citizens of Russian extraction who were unhappily living under Ukranian rule.

It seems that events at a murder trial here in New South Wales may be influencing the decision to send warships on an Australian mission. Fiona Barbieri (47) has pleaded guilty to the stabbing death of police Inspector Bryson Anderson and her son Mitchell ( 21) has pleaded guilty to the crime but with his mother's affliction influencing the outcome.   Fiona Barbieri is a Paranoid Schizophrenic and both have entered the defence that they were " entitled to defend themselves ".    They have emailed Russian President Putin and asked for his help, claiming that they want to renounce their Australian citizenship and seek asylum in Moscow.

Could it be that Vladimir Putin intends to relieve the misery of these people who have been put before a court for the minor matter of stabbing a much decorated Inspector of police to death when he was trying to breakup a family dispute ?    Are we to see Russian Marines storming ashore with the intention of freeing the Barbieri's and taking them back to Russia, where they will be feted like heros and given the keys to the city ?

Putin obviously didn't like Tony Abbott raising the matter of his involvement in that plane disaster by arming Ukrainian dissidents with a BUK missile launcher and he is showing his anger by a forceful display on our doorstep.   One of the problems is that a cornered and economically deprived Putin is a very dangerous animal.   His country is suffering crippling sanctions because of his clandestine invasion of Ukraine and as oil and gas is the main component of the Russian economy, oil below eighty dollars a barrel is a financial disaster for his treasury.

Eventually, this current spat will come to an end, but the memory will linger and the one thing that has become crystal clear is the impossibility of taking any sort of legal agreement with Russia for granted.   Vladimir Putin has clearly demonstrated his utter contempt for the civilities of honouring " deals " with other countries - and any treaty signed is simply not worth the paper it is written on.

That became clear when this present Ukrainian adventure began.  The breakup  of the old Soviet Union resulted in Ukraine becoming a nuclear armed country.   Part of the Soviet nuclear arsenal was based in Ukraine and the Ukrainian government willingly agreed to surrender the nuclear weapons and remove this form of defence from their soil.  In exchange, Russia guaranteed their borders and promised no interference in the future development of their new country.

When Ukraine looked to join the EU and possibly become a member of NATO Putin dismissed this promise, annexed Crimea and sent his armed forces over the border to help fuel a Russian orchestrated insurrection.  Now he has to live with this aggression - exposed nakedly in the eyes of the rest of the world.

Eventually, Putin has to deal with that same world when he needs to get the Russian economy back on track.   With his past record and the theatrics that is now playing out in the Pacific ocean, establishing a degree of trust and negotiating treaties and agreements is going to be a very difficult mission.