Murder Most Foul !

It is now over two years since the passengers and crew of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 died a horrible death in the skies over Ukraine.  Two hundred and ninety eight men women and children were slaughtered when their airliner was hit with a missile and simply disintegrated around them.

The aftermath contained criticism that airlines were persisting in travelling over war zones but what was happening below was viewed as merely a civil war.  Russian speaking Ukrainian residents of the border area were proclaiming their allegiance to Russia and the Ukrainian government was trying to bring them under control.

In reality, Russian troops with their national identity patches removed were fighting with the rebels, although this was denied by Russia.  Airlines deemed travel over the area to be safe because the planes were flying higher than twenty thousand feet and shoulder held "Stinger " anti aircraft missiles only served vastly lower altitudes.   Nobody imagined that the latest high altitude missile technology would be deployed in such a minor skirmish.

The aftermath made it quite clear that was exactly what happened.   Pictures emerged of a Russian BUK mobile missile battery trundling over the border with four missiles in place, and after MH17 disintegrated, this BUK was again sighted scuttling back onto Russian soil - with one missile missing.

The obvious question is whether that missile was fired by Russian troops, or by partisan Ukrainian rebels.  Russia denies its troops were involved and refuses to admit that it provided the BUK launcher, but intercepted phone and radio traffic tell a very different story.

An International consortium led by the Dutch held an exhaustive enquiry into the crash.   The recoverable parts of the airliner were assembled on a frame and it was proven that the crash occurred when the missile detonated and sprayed the cockpit and forward section of the plane with shrapnel, causing it to tear apart.

This evidence was sufficient for a United Nations Criminal Tribunal to launch an investigation to prosecute those responsible for what was clearly murder.   Russia used its veto to cause that prosecution to be abandoned.

Clearly, the limitations of the United Nations is there for all to see.   One of the five countries invested with the power of the veto because at the time the UN was formed they had a monopoly of being nuclear armed - is accused of a major crime.    It is a denial of natural, justice that they are able to invoke that veto - and shut down that investigation.
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Lesser bodies may choose to take the matter further, but Russia will stand behind the power of that veto and simply refuse to cooperate, and there is absolutely no chance that this case will appear before an International Criminal Court - and be judged on its merits.

So much for the power of a world body to deliver justice  !

The " Renewable " Issue !

South Australia is Australia's most advanced state in replacing coal based power generation with "renewables "" such as wind and solar.  Yesterday the most extreme storm in fifty years hit the state and at 3-30 pm the power failed and the entire state was plunged into darkness - and that was expected to persist for twelve hours.

There was chaos in Adelaide.  The trams and trains stopped running and all traffic lights turned to black.  Residents rushed to supermarkets to buy candles, matches and spare batteries.  There was concern for people stuck in lifts and for those with life support equipment in their homes. The SES swung into action.

Theoretically, the Australian power grid is supposed to be self supporting, and in such an emergency South Australia would draw power from Victoria, but the extent of the South Australian demand caused the " Interconnector " to be shut down.   This massive storm toppled many of the high voltage power lines that interconnect the states.

This disaster seems certain to renew the debate on the base load question. South Australia has invested heavily in wind and solar and consequently many older and less efficient coal fired generators have been closed.   When the storm hit, dark clouds negated the input from solar and the wind turbines had to be immediately shut down because very high winds would cause them to destruct.   South Australia draws forty percent of its power from wind turbines.
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The weather bureau uses the term " perfect storm " to describe the fury that nature sent on a visit to South Australia yesterday.  It was unprecedented, but it is exactly what we have been warned will become the new normal if we continue to burn fossil fuel and heat the planet by generating excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

The old thinking was to site base load coal based power stations as near as possible to the source of need.   Many were located within cities, but the change to wind power in particular saw massive wind farms dotted about the country with careful selection of where wind was most reliable.  Many ended up offshore - and they do have a liability that they must be shut down if the wind becomes obsessive.

There are also problems with the growing number of householders installing solar panels on their homes.   The power generated is in direct contrast to the amount of sunlight they collect.  If it is a day of intermittent cloud with full sun appearing from time to time the power company is getting rising and falling power volumes which are hard to integrate with the base load supply.   As the solar input surges and then dwindles, it is the base load that needs to adjust to deliver a constant load to homes and industry.

The fact that an entire state suffered a twelve hour blackout will send the boffins back to their drawing boards.   The interconnectivity of a multi state grid is a theoretical answer.  Australia is vast continent of different time zones - and therefore different peak loads.   Wind and solar certainly have their place in power generation, but the cabling that delivers power between state needs a new reliability factor.

Yesterdays South Australian experience could well be a portend to the future !

The Lengthening Arm of the Law !

Excluding gangland murders it is reasonable to suppose that in most instances where someone ends up dead it is the result of anger or some spur of the moment situation that was not foreseen.  Only a minuscule number of killings are carefully planned and orchestrated to a known scenario.

The police freely admit that unless they have a suspect within the first forty-eight hours of starting an investigation the chance of solving the case diminishes rapidly.  Because the killer must hide the body and establish an alibi in haste there s every chance that a tiny error will be the killers undoing.  In every police jurisdiction there are usually a number of murders with ever lengthening periods without a solution that must convince the guilty party that they have escaped justice.

A news story this week must send shivers of apprehension through those with a guilty conscience.  Thirty-three years after a murder is sufficient time for any undetected murderer to be congratulating themselves on committing the perfect crime.  This time the police came a knocking on an alleged killers door and the march of science provided compelling evidence.

On September 24, 1983 Sydney nurse Mary Louse Wallace was celebrating with friends when a stranger joined the group, and offered Mary Louise a lift home in his car.  She was never seen again.
Robert Adams admitted to being that man and he claimed that they kissed, cuddled and had sex, and after that he went to sleep.  When he awoke, Mary Louise was no longer in the car with him.
 

The police carefully searched his car with attention to the boot area.   This was vacuumed and the residue filed away in evidence bags, but there was nothing that the science of that period could connect to a possible murder.   Nothing changed for thirty-three years, until the "cold case " files were resurrected  for a fresh examination by forensics.

This time the evidence bag delivered two strands of female hair and this was matched to Mary Louise's genetics by comparison with hair on a hairbrush  taken from her flat.  There was evidence that Adams was seen scrupulously cleaning his car the day after Mary Louise's disappearance.  The front seat covers were washed and hung on the line and Adams was seen carefully cleaning the boot area.  All this was unusual because he had never previously been known to bestow care on his car.

The prosecution has seen fit to proceed with a murder charge, to the relief of her relatives.  Her body was never discovered and a fresh search will certainly be part of the investigation.

This is exactly the outcome which will strike fear into the heart of murderers who have evaded the long arm of the law by either sheer good luck or the inability of science to interpret the evidence they have left behind.   That gap is ever closing and the indications are that the wheels of science will grind ever finer in a much shorter time span.

Unfortunately, that is unlikely to decrease the murder rate.  Most murders occur because of rage or lust - and the thinking only starts after the deed is done.    Perhaps it may slow the hand of the calculating types who murder for gain.  In such cases the reward needs to be considered in relation to the risk - and the risk ratio is ever shortening.

What will cause increasing worry to those with an old murder on their conscience is those cold case files locked away in police evidence rooms.   The day looms closer when that evidence will give up its secrets !

The Menzies Years !

Earlier this month the ABC ran a two part series on following Sunday nights which amounted to a presentation of the years in which Robert Menzies was prime minister of Australia.  The presenter was recent prime minister John Howard.

No doubt this pageant to Menzies caused anguish to the left of politics and had them grinding their teeth.  They claim that this was a period in Australia when "nothing happened "and it was a time of "lost opportunities ".

It was certainly a time when Australia had to face a new reality.  We had just seen the Japanese hordes sweep south and we had come close to an invasion.   The "populate or perish " theme was very real and we opened our doors to the Europeans fleeing both the war and the ever encroaching Red army digging in to rule liberated countries.

Unfortunately, we failed to heed the warning that was happening in South Africa where the apartheid regime was imposing minority white rule.  We endorsed the " White Australia " policy, and to our shame we failed to recognise our Indigenous people.  They were not counted in the census and they were not recognised as citizens.  Those that served in the Australian armed forces were refused entry to RSL clubs - and prevented from marching in victory parades.

This was a time of "housing "and jobs " !   We were receiving hundreds of thousands of "New Australians  " and the country was undergoing a building boom.   It was still a time of austerity but government money was pouring into vast projects like the Snowy Mountain Scheme and each of the states was building new infrastructure that soaked up the expanded work force available.

The Menzies era started in 1949 when then Labor prime minister Ben Chifley went to an election promising to nationalise the Australian banks.  This alarmed middle Australia and so long after the end of the war we were still experiencing petrol rationing.   The Liberals won in a landslide.

Menzies recognised that the balance of world power had changed and that the United Kingdom had passed both the military and the financial baton to the United States.  It made perfect sense when the ANZUS treaty came into being to ensure that if Australia and New Zealand were attacked, we would have the military support of the United States.

There was a brief hiccup when Egypt seized the Suez canal and Britain and France invaded to take it back.  America opposed this action and Australia unwisely backed the British and French.  This caused a rift that strained relations with America and for a time excluded us from defence information, but the ANZUS treaty survived.

Menzies came close to defeat several times during his sixteen year rule.  At the critical moment the first secretary of the Soviet embassy in Canberra defected, bringing on what became known as the "Petrov Affair ".  Petrov divulged details of Russian spying in Australia and his wife was rescued when she was being hustled back to Russia.   Menzies used this to generate his famous "Reds under the beds " electoral success.

The fact that Bob Menzies held office for a record sixteen years was mainly attributable to the confusion in the opposition Labor party.   Apart from inept leadership the movement split when those with Catholic leaning formed the Democratic Labor Party (DLP ) and ran in opposition at Federal elections.   This division of loyalties ensured that the Liberal/Country party coalition retained office.

The Menzies years may not have been exciting, but the "Steady as she goes " policy was just what the nation needed at that time.   We were recovering from a war and we were receiving a vast population increase.   It is a historic fact that we successfully settled a vast number of foreign nationalities, speaking many different languages into the homogenised Australia that exists today.

Hopefully, the period ahead will be similarly successful !

World Standards !

New South Wales is spending 2.3 billion dollars to bring our passenger rail system up to world standards.  Early in 2019 the first of these new trains will come into service and there is the expectation that there will be opposition from the militant rail unions.

This rail upgrade will involve the arrival of five hundred double decker train sets to replace the old V-Set trains that serviced the Blue Mountains, Newcastle and the Illawarra.   This contract was won by Korea and in keeping with modern practice each train is crewed by a driver and the position of a guard is no longer required.

It seems likely that this will involve the job losses of the three hundred and eighty guards employed in the rail system, although some jobs will remain for the diesel services that will be retained.  The rail unions are disputing the loss of guards on safety grounds, but in reality this was a necessity that belonged to the steam age.   In that era guards waving flags signalled to the driver that all passengers were on board and the train was clear to proceed.

The driver of a modern train sits in a cabin not unlike the cockpit of an airliner.  He is connected to an array of cctv cameras within the train and covering stations and he is tasked with answering passenger queries and giving general information.  The introduction of a card swiped on a terminal to subtract the fare from each passengers holding deposit did away with conductors on trams and buses and on some overseas rail systems. We are fast approaching the age of full automation, with driverless cars - and soon driverless trains.

That is on the horizon from 2019 when the new Metro line connects the north west with Chatswood. Fully automatic trains will flow at short intervals and both trains and stations with be under observation from a central control room.  It is envisaged that the arrival of a train every few minutes will even out passenger peaks and judging by events overseas Metro lines introduce a level of efficiency not possible with other systems.

The planners predict that Sydney will have a population of six million people by mid century.  Those numbers are impossible without an adequate transport system and we are investing in both light rail, an extended rail system and a vast road upgrade which will eventually require a second harbour tunnel crossing.

Sadly, many people are clinging to old ways as a form of nostalgia and that includes unions trying to protect jobs.   The fact that driverless trains are operating both safely and efficiently overseas and that guards are no longer required on most urban services is a sign of an era that has passed.  If the unions try to sabotage this new rail system they will be doing their members a disservice.   To try and limit modern rail to the steam age will ultimately fail - and leave this city behind on the world stage !

Drug Pushers !

Perhaps there is a fine line between the people who make illegal drugs available and are sought by the police and the legitimate industry that serves the big pharmaceutical companies.  The entire commercial world employs a sales force to move its products and nowhere is this more hotly contested than in the drug world.

The medical profession is well served by medical journals which provide indepth analysis of new drugs entering the market and expert comment on their benefits.   In some cases a new entrant is replacing an older treatment, but very often it is simply providing an extra benefit to other drugs and may be at a much higher price to generic counterparts.   That is something a medico may take into consideration when writing scripts.

Big Pharma employs well trained sales Representatives who visit doctors in their surgeries and promote their companies products.   In many cases these representatives come bearing gifts that may include expensive new diagnostic equipment or even items like a new Smartphone.   The aim is to achieve a cordial relationship and the hope that the doctor will favour that company's products.

A decade or so ago pharmaceutical promotions came under the spotlight when it was learned that many companies were holding medical conferences at exotic resorts.   Invitations to key doctors and their wives included air fares and while the conferences spanned several days, the actual medical briefings were sparse, leaving much time for holiday activities.  It was concluded that these were little more than bribes to influence the movement of the sponsors products - and they fell into disfavour.

Bringing a new drug to market comes at enormous cost.   The development process contains many hazards and there is a long delay while the testing process seeks any side effects and then come the work to gain a patent.  The company owning that patent can expect protection during the patent period and that will be a time of big profits, but once the patent expires competitors will be able to copy that formulae and market a generic product.   In most cases, the price will fall precipitously.

It is in the company's interest to heavily promote their patented drug during patent protection and that is why they deploy a sales force to achieve maximum penetration.  Many doctors do not readily accept new drugs and prefer to stick with older drugs that have served them well.   It is the task of the drug task force to change their minds.

We now learn that the drug companies are targetting nurses with lengthy medical conferences held at luxury resorts.   While nurses do not write scripts, they are hugely influential in most medical practices.  This seems to have been the line of approach with promoting the newly released Hepatitis C drug Daklinza.   That encompassed bringing seventy nurses to an educational conference at the luxury Langhams hotel in Melbourne.

The industry needs to watch carefully to ensure that product promotion remains within commercial guidelines.   Should it stray order the border and bring accusations of bribery - there will be consequences !

Life - After IS !

The "Caliphate " that  IS staked out in Iraq and Syria is shrinking.  Its creation was a matter of sheer luck.  A small band of Wahabist terrorists from Saudi Arabia took advantage of social media to project themselves as an unstoppable force and the western trained Iraqi army fled in panic, abandoning tanks, artillery and a trove of weapons that allowed IS to attract recruits and arm them with modern weapons.

The various tribes pushing them back are becoming more organized and IS is fast losing territory. When it seemed an unstopable force it attracted many western converts and it deliberately engaged in sickening cruelty which some young men felt as an attraction.    It is still attracting zealots, but the numbers of western converts is shrinking as the news depicts death and destruction reigning down on this terrorist army.

The western powers hoped to see the Middle East emerge as secular democracies.  Exactly the opposite happened.   The " Arab Spring " certainly deposed tyrants and there was a brief hope that better regimes would emerge, but everywhere except Tunisia new dictators seized power or the country remained a fighting mass of opposing tribes.   This Arab " revolution " simply changed the faces of those oppressing the masses.

This mess which is the Middle East was primarily caused by the victors of the first World War drawing lined on a map to designate countries with no regards to the religion or tribal loyalties of the people who lived there.  These divisions were drawn to suit their national interests and were maintained with military force.

Now the west is locked in battle trying to maintain those unrealistic divisions of territory into National countries.   This is fast developing into a power play.  America is training and arming the tribes which suits its purpose while Russia has committed air power to assist the Syrian dictator hold on to his divided capital.

Logic insists that if both the western countries and Russia completely withdraw then eventually the Middle East will settle into national groupings dictated by religion, race and customs.  Unfortunately, it will probably take years of internal warfare as regimes try and hold onto land that was never originally part of their domain.   It is also inevitable that there be vast movements of people as what will be new countries emerge.  At present, the dispossessed are heading to Europe in the hope of a better life.   That can be turned around once the prospect of tribes amalgamating along religious and customary lines becomes a reality.

Unfortunately, this will never happen.  Theoretically, the United Nations was supposed to be a symposium of equals who would adjudicate world problems as a world court.   The fact that five nations were granted super powers and equipped with the power of veto completely negated that possibility.    The oil in the Middle East and the control of that commodity ensures that there will never be great power agreement.

It seems that when IS fades into history the Middle East will still roil the world.