A " Bigger " Australia ?

 The last time Australia recorded a population retreat was during the years of the first world war.  So many of our young men were fighting in the killing fields of Europe that there was a worker shortage in many industries here.

This time the cause is a world pandemic which has closed international borders and left thousands of Australian travellers trapped overseas as world airlines have been grounded.  This coronvirus has also prevented the backpacker stream that travels to this country each year and helps pick our fruit crop and gets it to market.

Statistics reveal that in the September quarter, the Australian population numbers fell back by 4200 people.  To be exact, the number of people living in this country at that time measured 25,693,059 and the upward and downward movement was irregular between the various states.

Victoria had a loss of  16,022 people compared with New South Wales losing just 1163 and the ACT losing 165.   The other states actually gained in numbers and this is attributed to the amazing increase in house prices in Sydney and Melbourne making the rest of Australia more attractive as a place to live.

In fact, we are seeing a reversal of the syndrome that was so apparent during the twentieth century.  That was an age when rural Australia lost its youth to the big cities.  Factory jobs paid better wages than farm work and country towns began to empty out as demand increased for higher education and the rewards that would bring.

The age of the computer has made it possible to work from home and people are discovering the cheaper housing and relaxed lifestyle of living in country towns.  The exodus from the cities began with the pandemic lockdowns and at the same time the inward flow of migrants to this country halted.

Across the world there are thousands of people in migrant camps awaiting allocation to a receiving country and Australia is a highly preferred destination.  It is usual for migrants to represent 63% of our population growth, but during this pandemic that has fallen to just 39 % and that will impose a multi billion hit to our economy in coming years.

Our retreating population numbers are not wholly dependent on migrant flow.  This pandemic and job uncertainty has certainly been reflected in fewer births and the birth rate has dropped  by 2.,2 % or  7000 fewer babies born.  That is the lowest number in eleven years and the biggest annual drop in twenty-four years.

There is the expectation that the vaccine distribution will tame this pandemic and the migrant flow will return to its normal level and the birth rate will also rise.  Now is probably a good time to decide what population numbers we expect to achieve by the end of this twenty-first century.

That will depend on how global warming treats the weather pattern in this country and how we marshal the water supply to cater for our population growth.  There is every expectation of a hotter Australia and our future growth would seem to favour the southern states.