Term Limits !

 The Conservative side of politics has had little luck in attracting women to stand in winnable seats in parliament.  In fact,  it seems to be losing the few it has because of bullying and a lack of action on women's issues and has decided to turn to quotas to artificially balance the genders.

The entire democratic system is based on the principle of every person over eighteen being entitled to cast a vote for the candidate of their choice.  It sounds very much as if in the near future party selection will decide who will be endorsed to stand, depending on their gender.

That completely changes the conception of the public making a choice to send the person best suited to represent them to parliament.  The gender choice will be chosen by a parliamentary committee and the chosen candidates gender will be decided by the gender balance in the parliament.

In fact, to attain gender neutrality,  exactly half the seats in parliament  would be a choice exclusively selected by either a man or a woman chosen entirely on the basis of gender.   The only way an outstanding man or woman could challenge that choice would be to stand as an independent.

If quotas based on gender  become the permanent basis of endorsement to run for a seat then the voter's choice simply becomes a gender issue.  The choice of candidate narrows sharply, depending on the gender balance at that time.

Perhaps a better way of balancing parliament could be chosen from the American presidential system.  Presidents are limited to two terms in office and if this was applied to seats in parliament we would be constantly exposed to new ideas and a new thinking.

It would do away with the old curmodgions with fixed ideas who occupy a seat for decades and contribute little to the debate.  Limiting tenure to two terms of office would open the door for constant renewal and set the course for an enlightened parliament which should be attractive to people of both genders.

Politics is a numbers game, and as the present system stands, party loyalty sends the same old faces back in election after election until an issue is sufficiently divisive to break this nexus.  By limiting a hold on seats to two terms, party politics is constantly renewed and opened to a new consensus.

This two terms in office would apply to both the House of Representatives and the Senate.  Candidates for office would need to convey ideas attractive to the voters and this would put pressure on party politics to mould government to public pressure.  Government ministers would have two terms to implement their policies and get public approval before each ministry moved into new hands.

Term limitation is a form of constant renewal and that should engage a mix of both genders keen to run for office.  It also delivers the freedom of choice for the voting public that this quota system seems sure to destroy.

An Unprepared World !

Aged care is where this vaccine against the coronavirus is most urgently needed and yet we are finding that as much as twenty percent of residents are refusing the jab because of safety fears.  This is particularly prevalent when the resident comes from another country as a migrant  and still has regular contact with overseas news.

It seems incredible that entire European countries put the vaccine on hold because a mere handful of patients developed blood clots.  It was quickly determined that this was associated with underlying medical conditions which could be expected  and in most cases the embargo was swiftly lifted.

Now we are seeing human nature coming to the fore when it comes to accessing suppliers of the vaccine. The European Union is threatening to ban exports from factories within its borders until sufficient doses have been provided to its own population.

It is becoming evident that much of the third world will be the last in line for supply and the virus will continue unabated until the big and wealthy countries have received sufficient for their needs.  The development of the vaccine was an international effort by the world drug industry but the consent to make the drug under license has been restricted to just a handful of manufacturers.

A medical pandemic came out of nowhere and posed a dire threat to humankind.   It was particularly lethal to the elderly but the fact that it kept continuously  developing new characteristics meant it continued to evolve and could become a mass killer of all age groups.  We can not be assured of safety until the entire population of the planet has been immunised.

Despite this threat, China is still putting obstacles in the way of researching how this pandemic originated. It first appeared in Wuhan province and it is thought to have made the crossing from the animal kingdom to humans by way of " bush meat markets " which sell all manner of native animals for human consumption.   In Africa, this practice is thought to have released Ebola on the world.

Unfortunately, rare diseases lay dormant in animals not traditionally eaten by humans and when they are dissected for sale this sort of accident can happen.  The world population may reach ten billion by 2050 and the desperate search for food in many parts of the world is highly likely to spark new pandemics.  We are told we will have to change our food habits to include insects to stabilize the food supply and that opens the door to similar dangers.

How the world reacted to this coronvirus is not encouraging.  The disease spread by way of international air travel because of a coverup by China who tried to suppress news of the outbreak. The logical command centre to control suppression would have been the United Nations but the giant drug industry acted independently and it has taken almost a year for vaccines to develop.

Pandemics are not a new phenomenon.   The " Black death " scourged Europe centuries ago and killed a huge swath of the population.  What we need to do now is prepare for the next one !

Meat in the Sandwich !

 What an interesting new development in world politics.  China has inflicted a tariff wall on certain Australian exports in retaliation for our demand that the origin of the coronavirus be scientifically investigated, and new American president, Joe Biden has weighed in with support for its Australian ally.

There is an independent referee for these type of trade disputes and that is the World Trade Organization - and this one looks like being decided by the WTO.      But the investigation will be time consuming and China has already ignored a reverse finding on its occupation and claim to ownership of the South China sea.

 Joe Biden seems to be suggesting that the free world curb its imports from China as a way of disciplining the world's most populous country, but the authoritarian Communist government would probably use its " information control " to promote nationalism.  The situation could quickly turn to the surrogate clash of arms that existed between Washington and Moscow during the years of the cold war.

At least relations between these two super powers ha not quite degenerated to that cold war level and they are still speaking to one another.  China's relationship with the rest of the world tends to be quixotic. The power of Xi Jinping is absolute and yet he is mistrustful of his masses.  What he fears is any commercial downturn that create unemployment.  There is unrest amongst his perimeter Islamic people and the residents of Hong Kong clearly want to break away from Beijing control and that could spread internally if unemployment increased.

Of course this Australian goods embargo would swiftly dissolve if Australia decided to toe the Beijing dialogue.  The Chinese are desperate to avoid blame for the coronavirus pandemic which has killed millions of people worldwide.  It started in China and the Chinese government instituted a cover up which allowed it to escape to the rest of the world.

Australia has been singled out for a trade embargo because it had the temerity to suggest an international investigation to stop a similar outbreak happening elsewhere in the future.  Australia poses no military threat to China and it therefore feels it can get away with a selective trade embargo while continuing to import raw materials essential to national development.

These difficulties could disappear as swiftly as they originated if Beijing feels it has made its point, but if American imports of Chinese goods becomes reliant on Australian exports receiving justice it could take the issue to a very new level. That would be a situation that could extend for a number of years.

The one thing that would be to Australia's disadvantage would be for this trade issue to evolve into a dispute between the great powers.  We will quickly find new markets for the majority of the goods rejected by Beijing and this will simply become an irritant rather than a crisis.   It is in our interests to keep it low level.

That is the disadvantage of being a " middling power " on the world stage.  Sometimes we get dragged into issues which are not in our best interests !

Reversing the Benefit !

 It looks like the solar energy revolution which has seen  solar panels appear on the roofs of countless Australian homes is turning full circle and is about to bite owners in the hip pocket.   The  Australian Energy Market Commission  (AEMC ) is considering a proposal to reverse the benefit home owners receive for sending excess energy they produce back into the grid into billing them for receiving it.

The whole point of paying to have solar on your roof was to generate at least some of the power your home consumes and gain a small credit for the excess returned to the grid.  The popularity of solar turned it into a major power supplier in its own right and now the industry is wailing that it is producing too much power.

The argument the industry is trying to sell to justify this reversal is that it urgently needs more funds to pay for upgrades in infrastructure.  It cites the expected  $ 3 billion transmission link that will connect the new Snowy Mountains hydro plan to the cities.

Consumers with long memories may remember the  incredible upgrade of wires and poles just before what was a publicly owned electricity network was sold into private hands.  The upgrade of worn out coal fired power stations has been an ongoing argument ever since.  In fact it has been solar's contribution that has kept the lights on in New South Wales.

The AEMC is claiming that the average solar owner earns an average $ 640 a year credit from returning excess power to the grid.  The true amount is much less and has been constantly dropping  as the amount generated by the sun steadily increases.

Promised cost effective pricing reforms have not been put into practice in this past decade.  The industry makes money shipping electricity around the wires and poles and now they want to make money by receiving it as well.  They are threatening to pay even less for the power that flows back into the system.

The electricity industry is playing a dangerous game.  The efficiency of today's batteries is ever rising, and the price is steadily lowering.  Connecting a group of nearby houses to a common central battery is becoming a viable proposition and even individual homes becoming unconnected to the grid is fast becoming a reality.

The electrical industry holds the whip hand as long as homes remain connected to the grid.  Once a trend starts to disconnect from the grid the power companies retain the need to maintain the poles and wires to get power to the scattering of homer still reliant on the grid, but with an ever decreasing customer base to cover those costs.
The argument the power companies are making to justify this raid on power returned to the grid from solar will not stand up to a critical evaluation.      Pricing reforms have stalled over the past decade and this would have been a better outcome for all, but this proposal seems to ensure that the power generating industry will have a rocky future !

The House Price Enigma !

 The most frightening news for many Australians should be the prediction that house prices are expected to surge another nineteen percent by the end of this year.   Data shows that Sydney prices advanced  six percent in the past three months while Melbourne prices lifted by 4.4 %.

That might be good news if you already own a house, but buying into the market is fast becoming unrealistic for the average wage earner, despite interest rates on house mortgages being set at an all time low.  That is a contradiction by our Reserve bank trying to get Australia to spend its way out of recession and it is inevitable that these low rates can not hold indefinitely.

Traditionally, the housing market in Australia has been split between owners and renters.  The rents charged are governed by scarcity of  rental stock and the fact that we have a glut of unsold apartments is keeping rents low in contrast to house prices., but that will not last indefinitely.

Thousands of Australians are stuck overseas because the coronavirus shut down international air travel and the vaccination of the nation will see them come home in the months ahead.  We traditionally grow by regularly granting entry to new citizens from the world's refugee camps and our need for new housing will steadily increase into the future.

We are already seeing  evidence of " homeless people " sleeping rough in our cities. In other parts of the world this takes the form of what is called a " Favella " - a shanty town where people put together rudimentary shelter from whatever they can find to shield them from the wind and rain.  Usually it is on public land and presents a fire risk for the people living there.

There is every chance that this will be the fate of poorer Australians unless this price inflation of housing is not brought under control.  We would do well to remember the housing shortage after the end of the second world war.

Vast estates of cheap land saw many families live in a caravan or build a garage to live in while they constructed a home.  Many of the facilities we take for granted were missing, but it was a way for the average person to move towards home ownership which served the need at that time.

Of course, the answer best suited to bringing home prices under control would be a building boom in which the supply of homes was greater than demand - and priced accordingly.  That would be possible if the government acted to acquire land for home sites and made blocks directly available to buyers who would contract with the building industry to provide the homes they need.

Basically, we need to build our way out of this price inflation that see s home prices increase by thousands of dollars in a bubble that must eventually burst.  If we fail to bring home prices within reason, the " Favella " in Australia  will emerge.

Saying and Meaning " No " !

 Rape is said to be the most unreported crime in the Australian justice system and it is easy to see why this is so.  Any charge of rape will incite the rapt attention of the news media and in the majority of cases it provoke an angry denial from the offender.

Rape is a serious crime and a successful prosecution requires compelling evidence to be presented., and in most cases this devolves into the conversation between the two people involved and all the intimate details make embarrassing reading on news reports.

In the vast majority of cases the woman raped suffers in silence.  The fact that rape has broken this vow of silence in both the Federal and New South Wales parliament has brought the issue into focus and the women of Australia are united in demanding justice.  Women have found their voices and this matter will not be allowed to simply rest.

It is evident that some men are repeat offenders  who impose themselves forcefully on women and the police are appealing for victims to come forward and make an " informal " report.  They stress that this is important even if there is not enough evidence for a prosecution.  It allows the police to build a dossier of the offenders and bring them under police surveillance.

The police are adamant that such reports will be kept confidential and no action will be taken without the victim's approval.  The law makers are still struggling with the issue of " consent ".  Varying state parliaments have failed to agree on a common  form of agreement between two people that could not be used a defence of rape.  A woman has the right to change her mind at any stage of the proceedings and this  complicates the consent issue.

In the past, fear of an unwanted pregnancy placed a limit on sex between unmarried couples, but the development of the " pill " changed all that, and now some men assume that having sex with a new acquaintance is an automatic " right " - and act accordingly.  For many women, unwanted sex is a hazard of establishing new relationships.

Basically, this entire issue revolves around gender imbalance.   For centuries it has been a man's world.  Men have been the bread winners and women the " homemakers " and mostly women were denied the educational advantages to compete in a man's world. and it is quite evident that is changing.

This uniformity of opportunity still has a long way to go, but the gap is closing.    Women are taking their place in all aspects of industry and it is quite evident that they are demanding equality in deciding their choice of sexual partners.

Rape will no longer be the unreported crime on the statute books now this consent issue is reaching prominence.  The world we live in now is " different " and men will need to learn new rules to achieve sexual harmony.

Return to Civilian Life !

 It looks like a rebellion is forming in both government and opposition ranks and the outcome will be a Royal Commission to try and determine why there is a much higher rate of suicide amongst returned members of our armed forces than in the civilian population.

The problem with Royal Commissions  is that it will take about eighteen months before we see any real action and a lot will depend on what terms of reference apply, and that brings it into the political debate.

The expected outcome across the wide ranging political spectrum will have a big bearing on what is hoped to be achieved and will probably avoid the obvious.  This is not a new problem.  It has existed as long as we have had people returning from armed combat in the many wars that have plagued this nation.

Families embracing loved ones returning from both the first and second world war noted that they were very " different " from the young men who had enlisted  and most found returning to civilian life had many " difficulties ".  Former loving relationships easily shattered  and divorce after retuning from war was common. Many turned to alcohol as a refuge.

To be of use as a member of the armed services requires enlistees to change and the first thing is " boot camp " where the individual is trained to unquestionably obey orders. This training progresses to the use of weapons and with that comes the need for a vast change of attitude. He or she is trained to believe that taking the life of the " enemy " is not only essential - but desirable.

Trainees are encouraged to stick a bayonet into dummies representing the enemy and shooting in mock battle scenes.  It is a process aimed at dispelling the notion that human life is sacred and replacing it with a " kill or be killed " mantra.  In a combat situation, killing to preserve the lives of his fellow soldiers becomes an automatic duty.

Members of our armed services see duty in places like Afghanistan and Syria where death and destruction is an everyday event.  They live with danger and it is completely unreasonable to expect them to complete a tour of duty and then hand in their uniform and return to civilian life.

It is usual for an enlistee to be given six months training before they serve in a combat role.  The army performs the pyschological task of creating a combat soldier and it would be reasonable to expect a similar  training period to return that soldier to civilian life.

Just how that can be achieved is something medical science will need to determine, but it is obvious that simply discharging highly trained soldiers at the end of their tour of combat duty does not equip them for civilian life., and it should not require a Royal Commission to reach that conclusion !

Trying Times !

 Thousands of people across northern New South Wales have been forced to evacuate their homes and are either hunkered down with friends or relatives, or waiting out the flood in crowded evacuation centres. When the waters do subside they will deliver heartbreak to many families. There is the expectation of huge piles of ruined furniture and whitegoods piled up on nature strips as householders try and clean up the mess left behind.

Inevitably, there will be rows with insurance companies.  Flood insurance is almost impossible to obtain where buildings have a track record of regular innundation in floods but this looks like the biggest flood in living memory and reached areas far from any water source.  Two distinctly different storm centres collided and dumped what some describe as a " hundred year " flood on the east coast of Australia.

No doubt ordinary Australians will put their hand in their pockets and donate to relief funds and both the Federal and state governments will need to find more relief money despite the huge outlay already spent combatting the coronvirus pandemic.  This economic setback will affect the economy for many months into the future.

Some insurance companies will reject claims on their " Act of God " defence, but car insurance is very different to house insurance.  Thousands of cars were submerged in this flood and will be written off and  for many owners this is a chance  to make the change to electric vehicles, but the car companies are not yet offering the cars we want to buy in electric mode.  Unfortunately, most of the replacements will have petrol or diesel engines.

The months ahead are also likely to jar the hip pocket nerve.  Stock losses will be reflected in higher meat prices and this flood has devastated the market gardens that supply the east coast of Australia.  Local government will be looking for more finance as they face the need to repair roads and bridges washed away in the flood and many areas are facing a new peril as landslips put whole housing subdivisions at risk.

It will be interesting to see just how this flood affects house prices.  The water reached places many would not describe as " flood prone " and yet sheer necessity is  forcing more development to encroach on what were in the past described as " flood plains.  Much new housing is in areas where house owners could expect a moderate flood at least once in their lifetime.

We may see a change in the building code to outlaw single story homes on a slab and replace them with upper story living, using the ground area for car parking and leisure.   It will be interesting to see how this amount of water reacts with the tunnels left by underground mining and whether that affects the rate of subsidence that naturally  occurs.

In the short term, it is a matter of survival.   Our emergency services have reacted magnificently and we have been spared the loss of lives.  No doubt many good hearted Australians will help with the cleanup and council tips will waive tip fees for a period of time.   We have had a year of bushfires to disrupt the nation and now it is a flood.  It is said that disasters come in " threes ".   The only question is what comes next ?

Communal Living " !

 The ultimate ambition would be to have each and every Australian family  living in a home that they own but the price of housing makes that impossible.  Australia has always had a divide between home owners and people who rent the place where they live, and in yesteryear there was a third alternative called a " boarding house ".

Usually this was a big old house where the owner was letting rooms and providing communal meals. Guests shared a bathroom and often these boarding houses were delicensed suburban pubs converted to communal living functions.

The standard of  accommodation and meals varied widely  according to the rent charged and today this form of public housing is in decline. It is not encouraged by councils and in fact boarding houses have a bad reputation of constantly changing tenants associated with crime.

The by-laws in place governing new housing provide incentives for " affordable " housing to be part of the housing mix, but often this gravitates swiftly into the $400 a week rental category.  Often, the builder and developer gets construction advantages when constructing housing that meets this " affordable "  definition.

Now the housing authorities are considering renewal of that old boarding house concept with modern overtones.   They envisage a " private living " complex of thirty to thirty five square metres comprising bedroom, bathroom and food preparation area with communal living space shared with other residents.

Just as scarcity of available housing is pushing house prices ever higher,  there is fear that competition for this form of communal housing would quickly push the charges that apply to " affordable " housing beyond the reach of the low income tenants envisaged.

The aim is to provide affordable accommodation for the essential numbers of low paid people who serve the functions of a modern city.  This housing scarcity is leaving vacancies unfilled to the detriment of city services. These people are being pushed onto the city perimeter with an impossible daily commute  that drives them to other forms of employment.

Basically, what is envisaged is a new housing code for affordable housing.  It would provide the essential privacy required by the resident with the opportunity to share communal living space with others, which was exactly the concept employed in the boarding house era.

It is a concept that requires a mix of sociable, reasonable people to work efficiently and it will certainly need adequate regulations in place to prevent the law of supply and demand pushing the rental price for this type of accommodation to market heights.

The boarding house concept provided a need in yesteryear.  It is worth recycling in a modern form.

A Case of " Buyer Beware " !

 After both the Opal and Mascot Towers defective building scandals most people thought the legislation had been tightened to protect buyers, but a Sydney woman bought an apartment off the plan at a new development in Kellyville.

This was a major city apartment complex which would include three hundred individual units and she put down a ten percent deposit on her $625,000 new home.  She noted that the developer was based in Shanghai, China and that building work had been contracted with local companies, and in due course a private certifier had signed the all important " Certificate of occupancy " and she was now obliged to complete the purchase.

This buyer attended the pre-settlement inspection accompanied  by a registered architect, a qualified engineer and a licensed builder.  The summation of their verdict was stark.  This building did not comply with the National Construction Code.  Laser measurements showed  the fire escape and parking space did not meet sufficient minimum size requirements and there was insufficient balcony drainage.   These findings were backed by  the Hills Shire Council's fire safety coordinator.

This buyer demanded the defects be fixed or her deposit refunded, but the developer would not budge.  Legally, she was obliged to settle the sale and she threatened to take the matter of that private certifier to the disciplinary authorities.

She used  freedom of information to obtain details of that " Occupancy Certificate " from the council and perusal was illuminating.. It was obvious that  some signatures were  by subcontractors whose work varied from what they were licensed to perform.

The cladding certificate was signed by a bricklayer with an expired license, working for an unregistered company.  The formwork certificate was signed by a man whose license had been cancelled by Fair Trading, and the electrical certificate was signed by a person without an electrical license who appeared to be a carpenter.

The buyer contacted the private certifier who provided his own copies of these licenses, which showed that certification was signed by a different person who was actually licensed, but the  contact number and email address were unchanged.

This matter was taken to Fair Trading, who advised the buyer to take legal action because her complaint was about a contractual matter.  It is now reported that her complaint against the private certifier was being reviewed " as a priority ".

This woman is being legally pressed to finalise the sale and take possession of her new apartment despite its construction not meeting the building code.  The only other option would be to walk away from the sale and lose her ten percent deposit.

It seems painfully clear that the government has made little progress in protecting home buyers from shoddy building practices and having this work certified by a person chosen by the building contractor. It is obvious that certification must be returned to the relevant council engineers to ensure that building standards are met.

A " Bigger " Australia ?

 The last time Australia recorded a population retreat was during the years of the first world war.  So many of our young men were fighting in the killing fields of Europe that there was a worker shortage in many industries here.

This time the cause is a world pandemic which has closed international borders and left thousands of Australian travellers trapped overseas as world airlines have been grounded.  This coronvirus has also prevented the backpacker stream that travels to this country each year and helps pick our fruit crop and gets it to market.

Statistics reveal that in the September quarter, the Australian population numbers fell back by 4200 people.  To be exact, the number of people living in this country at that time measured 25,693,059 and the upward and downward movement was irregular between the various states.

Victoria had a loss of  16,022 people compared with New South Wales losing just 1163 and the ACT losing 165.   The other states actually gained in numbers and this is attributed to the amazing increase in house prices in Sydney and Melbourne making the rest of Australia more attractive as a place to live.

In fact, we are seeing a reversal of the syndrome that was so apparent during the twentieth century.  That was an age when rural Australia lost its youth to the big cities.  Factory jobs paid better wages than farm work and country towns began to empty out as demand increased for higher education and the rewards that would bring.

The age of the computer has made it possible to work from home and people are discovering the cheaper housing and relaxed lifestyle of living in country towns.  The exodus from the cities began with the pandemic lockdowns and at the same time the inward flow of migrants to this country halted.

Across the world there are thousands of people in migrant camps awaiting allocation to a receiving country and Australia is a highly preferred destination.  It is usual for migrants to represent 63% of our population growth, but during this pandemic that has fallen to just 39 % and that will impose a multi billion hit to our economy in coming years.

Our retreating population numbers are not wholly dependent on migrant flow.  This pandemic and job uncertainty has certainly been reflected in fewer births and the birth rate has dropped  by 2.,2 % or  7000 fewer babies born.  That is the lowest number in eleven years and the biggest annual drop in twenty-four years.

There is the expectation that the vaccine distribution will tame this pandemic and the migrant flow will return to its normal level and the birth rate will also rise.  Now is probably a good time to decide what population numbers we expect to achieve by the end of this twenty-first century.

That will depend on how global warming treats the weather pattern in this country and how we marshal the water supply to cater for our population growth.  There is every expectation of a hotter Australia and our future growth would seem to favour the southern states.

The " Spying " Game !

 Internal security in Australia rests in the hands of ASIO, the mysterious counter espionage agency based in Canberra and referred to as the " Spooks ".   In a rare moment of candour, it's boss has revealed that it has broken several spy networks trying to infiltrate our military secrets.  Mike Burgess declined to name the countries of origin of the agents involved, but did mention that attempts had been made to recruit Australians with top level security clearance to learn the secrets of our military technology. 

We tend to think of spying  as a war time activity, but even in a peace environment there are countries with ill intent to Australia who try and influence elections here to their advantage.  Often this means introducing false news content to try and swing public opinion behind candidates of their choice when this nation goes to the polls.

He said a number of foreign agents had been kicked out of the country in the past twelve months  He was careful to avoid mentioning the exact numbers, but hinted that this would run into double figures. As well as spies, ASIO  was keeping watch on " religiously motivated  right wing extremism " which had risen from about one third of ASIO's caseload to forty percent in recent times.

Another threat to the nation came from " religiously motivated  violent extremism " and ASIO     was now avoiding using terms such as " Islamic extremism " as this was offensive to  followers of the Islamic faith who had no interest in violent activity but found themselves lumped in with violent zealots.

People  often think we are talking about skinheads and swastika tattoos.  Today's  ideological extremism is more likely to be motivated by a social or economic grievance than national socialism.  More often than not,  they are young, well educated, articulate and middle class, and not easily identified.

While ideological extremism was on the rise, religious extremism was an enduring threat with IS last year releasing  a video  referencing the bushfire crisis to encourage arson attacks in the west.  This circulates on public media and finds a wider audience.

ASIO does not seek publicity but it does its work quietly and it is much to its credit that we have had few violent incidents originate in this country, considering we are a migrant nation and just about every country and culture in the world has found its way to our shores.

Security organizations are mistrusted in many parts of the world because of the image presented in the movie industry.  In this electronic world in which we now live new means of communications are constantly evolving and it is getting harder to keep state secrets under lock and key.  The innovation of the computer and its incorporation into commerce leaves us vulnerable to outside influence using the ever developing technology to by-pass our security systems.

It is comforting to know that ASIO has people matching those skills and using them to weed out those who seek to interfere with our democratic process !

A new " Ferry " Era !

 The plan to replace the ageing ferry fleet on Sydney harbour is running well behind schedule. These boats were supposed to enter service towards the middle of last year but they are still undergoing modifications because a safety defect is yet unresolved.

These ten River Class ferries were contracted to be built in Indonesia because the quoted price was very attractive. When the coronavirus erupted onto the world economy it was feared completion would suffer delay and the boats were shipped to Australia for their testing evaluation to be carried out here.

The first problem found was the presence of asbestos.  Asbestos use is prohibited in Australia but still widely used in other parts of the world and consequently it was stripped from the boats and replaced with a safer material.

Then it was discovered that the ferries could not safely pass under two bridges on the Parramatta river if passengers  were seated on the upper deck at high tide.   Very few seat spaces were involved and it was decided to keep this space clear and not install seating there.

Now it has been discovered that these boats may stall if an emergency stop becomes necessary.  An emergency stop involves putting the propellers into reverse while the boat is moving forward and that places a high degree of stress on both the engines and the gearbox.

Private ferry operator Transdev is under a nine year, $ 1.3 billion contract to run Sydney's ferries and is now engaged with the engine and gearbox manufacturer to correct these River Class control systems.  It is expected that satisfactory sea trials will shortly be conducted.

Basically, modification and testing have delayed the operational start of these ferries by seven months, but the order was subject to a world tender from many countries and consequently the boasts are good value for the money.  Their presence will mean that ferry services on Sydney harbour will again come full circle.

Back in the steam age we had numerous little ferries puffing black smoke as they carried commuters and since then we have built bridges and dug tunnels to serve our ever growing city population, but the number of ferries in service has declined.

We have one of the finest harbours in the world and the return of the ferries delivers a travel elegance worthy of a great city.   These River Class ferries are not the only addition to ferry travel on the drawing board.  We await the arrival of new " Emerald Class " ferries which are scheduled to replace the :" Freshwater " ferry fleet later this year.

Hopefully, many people will leave their car at home and enjoy the tranquility and view of travelling on water !

Political Uncertainty !

 Street marches protesting violence against women are a world event and usually the vitriol is directed at male prime ministers for lack of immediate action.  In Australia, an accusation of rape in the Federal parliament has become the focus of a demand for legislative change.

.In Britain the fury is directed at the rape and murder of a young woman walking home in the evening, and the fact that the accused is a serving police officer has caused the police commissioner to tender her resignation.

In an ideal world, the genders would be nearly balanced in national parliaments and the numbers are slowly heading in that direction.  It is interesting to note that in the state of New South Wales, both the premier and the leader of the opposition - are women.

Gladys Berejiklian rules with an iron fist and her hold on power seems unassailable.  The contender for power is Labor leader Jodi McKay and she has just been undermined by a revelation from the union movement, one of the key supporters of her political party.

The key Australian Workers Union has conducted an opinion poll that showed that Labor's primary vote has slipped to just 23.9% and if that held at the next election it would parallel Labor's landslide loss of 2011.  It would be the lowest primary vote accorded to Labor since 1904.

Ms McKay angrily went on radio programmes to claim that she was being undermined in some unions by men who objected to being led by a woman.  " They didn't support me, and they have undermined me from day one, and now they have used their member's money to conduct a secret poll ".

The unions responded, saying their members donated money and time to Federal and state Labor campaigns and no one in public life should be exempt from fair and reasonable scrutiny.

We made the decision to publicly discuss the research to raise the point that the party in New South Wales is objectively not travelling well and needs to change direction. This issue verged into negative territory when Ms McKay  suggested the union move  was straight out  of " the Eddie Obeid and Joe Tripodi playbook ".

She went on to claim. " Just as I took on Tripodi.   Just as I took on Obeid ".   That was an unfortunate episode of a Labor internal scandal that saw the party lose office when the voters went to the polls.

There is a vast difference between state and Federal political issues and in the past there have been claims that the Labor party is a captive of the union movement. Domestic violence and the issue of sexual harassment are fast bridging the difference between adherence to political parties and these are likely to influence voting patterns in ways yet to be determined.

It looks like predicting the outcome of future elections just got a lot more complex !

Rewriting the Rule Book !

 The chairman of Australia's biggest retirement fund is critical of a group of Liberal members and Senators who stridently oppose lifting the compulsorily nine percent superannuation levy employers must pay into their employee's retirement account, to twelve percent.

We are struggling to return to near full employment as we emerge from a pandemic that not only killed a lot of people but also seriously disrupted the national economy when the isolation factor required us to shut shops and factories and put big numbers of people on government  recovery money.

Originally, superannuation was something that only applied to government employees and  and the key workers in many large industries and it was envisaged that both employer and employee would contribute to their own retirement plan.   The incentive was a well funded retirement which was better than living on the old age pension.

The government contended that the age pension would be untenable unless the numbers decreased and imposed a superannuation levy on all employers that was in addition to the wages or salary paid.  This only applied to permanent employees, and that was the start of replacing permanent employees with " casuals " who did not draw any form of holiday pay nor be included in this superannuation levy.  They were paid a higher hourly rate to compensate them for these losses.

Just as the pandemic recovery is gaining ground we are faced with a new trend.  Business is replacing permanent employees with people who claim they are " contractors " who are self employed and provide their services at rates competitive with one another, and who avoid that superannuation entitlement.

There are some politicians who argue that this makes a move to a twelve percent superannuation levy likely to encourage this trend.  In particular, small business employers will claim this superannuation outlay is unaffordable if it moves to twelve percent.

Our wage structure is still closely tied to compensation for employees required to work outside the traditional nine to five time structure in a five day week., despite the commercial world now operating on a seven day structure. It is these pay loadings that cause some traders to abandon weekend opening or change their business to self serve to make costs manageable.

Perhaps it is time we changed to compensate employment anywhere in the twenty-four hour, seven day a week cycle.  There is much to gain from spreading the working day far outside that old nine to five constraint, including reducing the commute on our road system and evening out the public transport numbers.  We have artificially constrained the business cycle because of elevated pay rates that apply when we employ outside the traditional time frame.

There is also the issue of throwing the onus of providing retirement income entirely on to the responsibility of employers.  It would not be unreasonable to expect employees to contribute to their own wellbeing in old age and both employer and employee mutually contributing would be a much fairer system.

Perhaps now would be an opportune time to revisit both the superannuation issue and the loadings that apply to work timings.  We are living in the twenty-first century and yet we apply thinking that applies to an era that is long past and gone.

Paying the Price !

 There is a significant difference in policing between Australia and America.  Here we have a state police force that is backed by Federal police who investigate issues that overlap state jurisdiction.  In America each individual city has its own internal police force with the commissioner appointed by the mayor.  There is also a state police force that controls the countryside between cities, and then there is the FBI responsible for national crime.

This diversion of police responsibility in America is very closely guided by politics.  Usually the administration in power in each city is either Democrat or Republican and the attitude of the city police reflects that outlook.  As a result, the suppression of blacks and Latinos varies widely and this has led to the " Black lives matter " movement rioting when police kill a coloured citizen and escape any form of retribution.

On May 25, 2000 an event in the city of Minneapolis was drawn to world attention when news cameras recorded the death of  46 year old George Floyd at the hands of arresting police.  This black citizen was forced to the ground in a gutter and a white policeman put his knee on his neck and held it there for more than eight minutes.  The cameras recorded his last words.  An agonising whisper of " I can't breathe " before his life expired.

George Floyd's death has become the poster event for the " Black lives matter " movement.  The demonstration that followed delivered arson and widespread destruction in Minneapolis and now the city council has agreed to pay record reparation to his family for his untimely death.   This settlement will cost the city $34 million American dollars ($ 27 million in Australian currency ) and the city policeman who caused the death will still have to stand trial on a charge of murder.

Minneapolis had the misfortune to be the scene of another killing that made world headlines. Australian woman Justine Damond called police when she heard suspicious sounds that suggested a rape was in progress behind her home.  When she approached the arriving police car, one of the officers shot her dead without reason, and that cost the city $ 20 million in reparation.

These payments come out of the pockets of the citizens of that city. It is highly likely that the citizens of American cities are going to pressure their city administration for police reform. Police arrogance has become overwhelming and it is directed at the country's black and Latino minorities and now there is a price to pay that will be felt by the loss of public funds in compensation charges.

This compensation is probably only a small part of the overall cost of George Floyd's death.   The disruption to commerce for many days and the arson destruction to shops and warehouses is unimaginable.  The public can no longer be indifferent.  It brings the inevitability of higher taxes and public progress that will not eventuate because of lack of money.

If nothing else, these fines for police brutality are likely to bring change to American city streets.  In the end, we are all susceptible to damage to the hip pocket nerve.  Change is inevitable when it starts to cost serious money.

Discounted Air Fares !

 Now that coronavirus vaccine shots are under way the priority has shifted to get the economy moving again.  The return of overseas travellers is still distant so the government is taking steps to encourage Australians to holiday in their own country, which has the added incentive of getting our airline companies back to work.

This bold plan spends $ 1.2 billion of taxpayers money to reduce the air fare by half to a nominated selection  of holiday destinations.  It is not abundantly clear if this applies to the outwards journey, or also covers the return flight.

The one thing that is clear is it favours Queensland.  The reduced fare will apply to Cairns, The Whitsundays, Hamilton Island, The Sunshine coast and the Gold Coast.   Other northern destinations are not so plentiful.  Travellers considering the Northern Territory are offered just Alice Springs and Lasseter while Western Australia is limited to the town of Broome.

Considering that this holiday offer commences in April, the mid month of autumn, it is likely most travellers from the south will follow the sun to avoid the chill in the air.  This has drawn a degree of criticism and it is suggested that Queensland is being rewarded for bad behaviour over their extended use of border closures.

The choice of holiday destinations in the southern states also has curious limitations.  In South Australia the only choice is Kangaroo Island, Victoria lists just Avalon and in New South Wales the only choice is Merimbula.  Even Tasmania has a clear dividing line.   Fare reductions apply to flights to Launceston, Devonport and Burnie and completely ignore Hobart and the Huon Valley and Port Arthur. It is suggested that the range of destinations will broaden as the scheme progresses.

The government has wisely avoided  applying a time frame to this offer.  Instead, it will cover half the cost of airfares to 800,000 flights which will be taken up on a first come, first served basis.  Obviously the long haul flights will cost it more than shorter journeys but there is the expectation that the benefits to both the tourist industry and the airlines will be immediately productive.

The airline companies have taken a hammering with their aircraft grounded and employees put on furlough.  The entire tourist industry has suffered a customer drought because of movement restrictions and many are close to being forced to close permanently.   These fare reductions will be money well spent if it creates the revival expected and gets the tills ringing in the accommodation, meals and entertainment industries that serve the holiday sector.

It is a welcome move that signals hope that this pandemic is slowly fading from the scene and our tourist industry will survive to serve the hordes that will holiday here when international air travel resumes.

A New Approach to Prison !

It is a lasting shame to most Australians that our prison system is over represented  by the original inhabitants of this vast continent.  The statistics show that in  2016 the rate of imprisonment of Indigenous people was 13.5 percent higher than for non-Indigenous Australians.

We have just had two Indigenous prisoners die in custody, and in one case a man suffering from asthma was untreated for twenty-two minutes, a delay the Coroner believed was the cause of that fatality.   Now it is proposed to set aside a section of the District Court to specially hear cases involving Indigenous Australians.

This would be called the " Walama Court " and that is derived from the Dharug language and is interpreted as " Come back ".  It would involve Aboriginal and Torres Strait islander elders in sentencing discussions, rehabilitation and monitoring.

This proposal has caused the New South Wales Attorney General to express concern that this new court could be seen as  means of apartheid.  It would be disastrous if other Australians thought we introduced a form of " apartheid justice " where people who go through the stream get preferential treatment.

The objectives of the court, which would be located in Sydney include  reducing reoffending and diverting offenders from prison, but imprisonment remains a sentencing option.   The court would hear between 75 and 100 cases each year.

It is a fact of life that many indigenous people earn less than the average income and imprisonment is often for unpaid fines.  This particularly applies to Aboriginal women who are mainly homemakers and do not have paid employment.  In too many cases the courts simply hand out the customary fine for minor offences without thought to the offenders ability to pay.

This court offers a new approach.  It marshals the  wisdom of tribal elders in seeking different ways the  obligations to the state may be met other than by serving time behind bars.  We are constantly building new prisons because of overcrowding and the prison system is a major item in the state budget.  Simply locking people away for a designated period of time for minor matters is an unproductive use of state rescources.

The alternative is to do nothing and see the Indigenous prison population continue to grow.  The " Black lives matter " movement has spread across the world and the rate we imprison Indigenous people is drawing criticism.  If the main reason is the inability to pay fines the elders may be able to suggerst other ways of repaying those debts to the state.

It is quite clear that continuing without any attempt to resolve this problem is not an option !

A Tale of Two Cities !

 The summer of 2020 was a fire scene Australia will not forget.  A lot of people lost their homes and there were considerable numbers of lost lives.  Raging fires overwhelmed country towns and in many cases people had to wade into the sea or a nearby lake to shelter from the flames.

That was a Time when evacuation orders were broadcast and many homeowners needed to make a decision.  " Flee, or stay and try and defend their home ".  It was not an easy decision and those that decided to flee often found escape blocked by burning trees falling across access roads

It was a time of deadly chaos.  It hampered the movement of the thousands of fire trucks fighting the fires and brought the scene of long lines of cars stalled on state highways, sometimes for days at a time.  This was a fire season that started earlier than usual and lingered into early autumn.

The aftermath has been a slow recovery. Many victims are still living in caravans or sheds and the rebuilding is proceeding slowly, but thought is turning to the future.  That is the sort of fire season we can expect in the future  because of global warming. It is interesting to compare the actions taken by two of the east coast states which bore the brunt of those 2020 fires.

Victoria acted decisively and ordered that trees be removed to create  a forty metre clear area on both sides of its road system.  This was swiftly achieved and it is now unlikely that future fires will cause road closures.  Roads in Victoria now present a firebreak which make bushfires easier to locate and control and there is the added bonus for drivers of better sight lines and general visability.  The hazard of trees close to a road as the point of impact in an accident have been removed.

In New South Wales exactly the same procedure was ordered by the Transport Minister, but the only outcome was a few fire damaged trees cut and removed.  On most roads, mature trees remain as close as a metre from the road surface, with branches sometimes protruding over the roadway.

The civil servant responsible for carrying out the minister's orders got the sack and is claiming that the state lacks the legal power to clear land on both sides of every highway under its control.   In many cases this was privately owned land and there was the issue of protected animals  which needed to cross freely to maintain healthy bloodlines.

The sheer volume of land to be cleared was also seen as an obstacle..  To clear a forty metre area on each side of the NSW road system would involved an area of 104,000 hectares.  Putting that to terms a layman could understand, it would be the equivalent of 145,000 football fields.

What the people of eastern Australia need to understand is that one state bit the bullet and overcame these claimed problems.  As a consequence, their roads are safer from bushfires and a lot safer for general motoring.

In New South Wales nothing positive has been achieved and the issue is simply bogged down in recriminations.  Whether we will ever see that clear area on each side of the road system is now a moot point.

The Recycled Water Option !

 The New South Wales government is contemplating a major engineering project to raise the wall of Warragamba Dam by as much as seventeen metres.  The objective to be gained is to store more water for the ever growing city of Sydney and to provide flood protection for the Hawksbury/Nepean where it is planned to create new housing and commercial industries.

Raising the wall of the dam will inundate a large area of natural bush and this will include several World Heritage areas and some Indigenous sites.  Work estimates put the cost of raising the wall at about  $ 1.6 billion.

Perhaps that money would be better spent recycling the waste water we currently pump into the ocean and use it to preserve what is essentially " drinking quality water " stored in Warragamba dam. Science can now achieve the restoration of water containing sewage and this restored water could replace much of what we draw from Warragamba for non urban use.

It is hugely wasteful that we use drinking quality water to flush our toilets and water our gardens..  Immense quantities are used in industry for commercial cooling and with a law change we could progressively lower the amount we draw from Warragamba.

It would be too costly to re-pipe Sydney with a dual water system but piping recycled water to growth areas where new high rise office and apartment buildings in the planning stage would be required to plumb toilet water use to recycled water would progressively lower demand on Warragamba.

Water is a precious commodity and in the past we have been wasteful.  The one piped supply has been used for all and every purpose and that can not go on indefinitely.  As a continent, Australia experiences cyclical droughts and we are told that global warming will likely means less rainfall in the years ahead.

We need to plan for the next hundred years and estimate what will be the likely demand for water from an even bigger city.  Warragamba can be supplemented by converting salty sea water through desalination plants, but this is costly if we are still using drinking quality water in a multi purpose role.

Whenever it rains, millions of gallons of water are flushed down street drains and sewers and eventually get pumped out into the sea.  Stored and recycled, this can be reused to water the immense parks and gardens scattered around the city and preserve the flow from Warragamba, and we have the ability to restore that water to drinking quality if we so choose.

There is probably repugnance at the idea of drinking recycling water but we need to start replacing the use of drinking quality water in processes where that standard is not required, and obviously that is where growth areas provide the best opportunity., and that $ 1.6 billion would go a long way in getting the process started. 

It will not happen voluntarily.  It will take a law change to make it happen !

Royal Discord !

 Once again the mystique of the British Royal family has been shattered by scandal.  The world was mesmerized when Prince Harry finally chose a bride of his own choice but class conscious Britain applauded when his choice was not only a " commoner ", but a divorced woman who was also an American movie actress.

Then there was another factor, Harry broke the colour barrier by marrying a woman of mixed blood which must have brought great joy to to the many coloured people from all over the world who are now living in Britain.  Meghan was a breath of fresh air in a fast changing society and it is obvious that she received a warm welcome from the Queen's subjects.

The Royal family stood fast and appeared to support this union but it appears there was tension beneath the placid surface.  That became obvious when the Duke and Duchess of Sussex announced that they were walking away from Royal duties and would live overseas.

It appears that the birth of a Royal baby raised questions from some of the Royal household.  There was concern as to what skin colour this child would be and Harry was concerned at disparaging remarks from other Royals directed at his wife.  All of this surfaced when both Harry and Meghan granted a " tell all " interview with American TV hostess Oprah Winfrey.

Meghan revealed that she had been so unhappy she contemplated suicide.  Harry spoke of tensions within the Royal family so serious that he was no longer talking to his father, Prince Charles who is destined to be the next Royal to sit on the throne.  It has long been rumoured that there is ongoing friction between Harry and his brother.

Now another Royal baby is on the way for the Sussex family and it appears that both children will be raised in America.  They will be " celebrities " much followed by the American media and compared to Harry's brothers children on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.  That is a comparison the British Royal family will not enjoy.

Harry has always been a maverick from his early years, and no doubt the Royals hoped he would settle down with a nice English girl they could absorb and train to be dutiful and make speeches and open events with decorum.  Instead, Harry was attracted to a woman who had created her own career as an actress and was made very unwelcome by several of the unnamed Royals, which did not include the Queen or her consort, Prince Phillip.

Earlier last century a king abdicated his throne in Britain over a woman and lived in exile in France for the rest of his life.  It seems that this estrangement must create tension between father and son when Charles eventually succeeds to the throne.

The mystique that enthralled the British people has long disappeared.  The gates of Buckingham Palace are open to TV cameras and the Royals live their lives in the spotlight.   The trevails of the Royals seem set to be played in the public realm as has become the custom in this twenty-first century.

Curbing the Problem Gambler !

 Gambling was once a serious sin and was frowned on by the churches. The refusal of a casino license in Sydney has again brought the issue of crime in the gambling world to the fore, but the debate is also moving to the vexing question of poker machines and money laundering.

The illicit drug trade sold on the streets is a cash trade that generates vast volumes of cash money.  Banking and other laws bring it to police attention unless the crime syndicates can find ways to show it has been legitimately obtained, and so the money laundering trade flourishes.

We have thousands of poker machines scattered through pubs and clubs in New South Wales and these are watched over by the Independent Liquor and Gaming Authority which records the activity on every  gaming machines at fifteen minute intervals.  This supervision reveals constant suspicious play turning " dirty money " into freshly laundered cash.

In one glaring instance $ 1485.79 was put into a poker machine and that same amount was taken out just one minute later without a single reel being turned.   Theoretically, that withdrawal would have been made by cheque from the cashier's booth and as such would be regarded as legitimate " winnings ".

Originally, poker machines were played with coin in twenty cent, ten cent and five cent denominations. The player inserted coins to allow the handle to be pulled to set the symbols rolling, but today the machines only accept dollar coins, or banknotes of any denomination which they convert  to the players " bank " within the machine.  Linked machines allow multi dollar bets on each roll of the symbols.

Pressure is building to convert poker machine play to " digital wallets " in place of either coin or banknotes.  Players would need to pre-load their card with a cash deposit and play would be limited to the amount on that card.  It is hoped that this would make reckless gamblers more aware of their losses and less likely to chase illusionary jackpots by putting their entire wages through the machines.

This move is being resisted by the clubs and pubs that own the poker machines.  They claim it will stop play by the thousands of people who enjoy the cheap meal they provide and put the change in the poker machines. This spontaneous act would no longer be possible and most patrons would not be carrying a digital wallet.  Only dedicated gamblers would come to a club or pub with a  digital wallet that enabled them to play poker machines

Legislation to achieve that purpose would need to be enacted by the state parliament, and the government would be very aware of the tax it collects from poker machine turnover.   Saving people from the folly of gambling could be equally detrimental to both the club and pub industries and the government tax office.

For a very long time most forms of gambling were against the law in this state.  Gambling on horse races could only be undertaken with a licensed bookmaker at  a scheduled racing event and this led to illegal SP bookies operating in the back bar of most pubs.  Eventually, the government decided to share in this profitability by licensing the TAB.

This " digital wallet " idea is receiving consideration, but the financial outlay of combatting the coronavirus makes immediate acceptance unlikely..  Gambling - in its many forms - is an integral form of state revenue. It regards money laundering as a Federal problem.

Finding a " Scapegoat " !

  The fact that Brittany Higgins was raped in a minister's office at parliament house has sparked an enquiry into the safety of women working in the very chamber that delivers the laws under which the twenty-five million people who call this continent home live.

All that changed in the twinkling of an eye when her boss, the defence minister Linda Reynolds made a remark that was overheard by other members of her staff.   Ms Higgins had issued a press statement about the rape and contended that she had not received the support she expected  from her superiors.

Linda Reynolds called her a " lying cow " and that invoked both the wrath of the women's movement and opened an attack line for opposition members of parliament and the cross bench.  Senator Reynolds immediately apologised for the comment, but it became obvious that her job was on the line.

There have been calls in both the parliament and the media for her to be sacked and as a consequence our defence minister has taken appropriate sick leave.   The controversy brought on an underlying heart problem and on medical advice she will be missing from parliament until April.

Defence is an important government ministry and we are in the middle of major equipment purchases that requite the minister's close attention.  The fact that the ministry will be in caretaker hands for several weeks will delay decisions and cause confusion, but the biggest danger is that this remark issue has clouded the enquiry that was being seriously building around the safety of women working in the national parliament.

It has long been clear that sexual shennanegans have been rife in parliament house. It is a place of power and a clear pecking order of authority which has been used to put pressure on women to provide sexual favours.  It seemed likely this was about to come under the microscope and be subjected to new safety rules.

The abstraction of Linda Reynolds remark has changed all that. The context has been changed to suggest that the minister was commenting on the rape and not the claim that support and backup from her was missing.   There is no doubt the remark was spontaneous - and unwise, but it is suggested that Linda Reynolds may be the scapegoat to bury this sexual conduct enquiry if she is permanently removed from office.

That would be unfortunate.  We have had continuing sexual scandals involving all levels of authority in parliament over many years and it is time the people that serve the nation cleaned up their act.  There is every reason to believe that the defence minister was good at her job and she still retains the confidence of her prime minister.

The focus needs to return to that rape.  The sexual safety of the ppeople who work in parliament should be paramount !

The Tsunami Danger !

 We in Australia have the good luck to to be out of the world earthquake zone known as " the ring of fire. " This runs through our New Zealand neighbour and skirts Australia before it curves north through Indonesia and other parts of the Pacific ocean.  It manifests itself by many active volcanoes  which from time to time disrupt air traffic and bring danger to the people living in their proximity.

Australia is not earthquake free, but a shaking ground is a most unusual event and despite the short known history of this continent it does not generate fear.  We are more likely to suffer damage from a Tsunami washing onto our shores, caused by an undersea earthquake to our north and recently this danger broke into national news broadcasts.

On March 4 the Tsunami sirens on New Zealand's north island began to wail to alert residents that a major earthquake had occurred about six hundred miles to the north.  The geographic monitors had established that several quakes - including one that measured 8.1 on the Richter scale - had hit the  Kemadec islands and created a Tsunami probability.

New Zealand residents knew what to do and coastal residents fled to higher ground.  The television news depicted a steady stream of cars moving out of the cities and towns along the coastline and indeed a smaller Tsunami wave washed ashore and did no damage. Shortly after, this Tsunami warning was cancelled and those crowds returned home.

The population of Australia is heavily concentrated on our eastern seaboard and yet we are totally reliant on our news service spreading the word if a Tsunami eventuates and our vulnerability to Tsunami damage seems to be completely ignored.  Should that happen in the middle of the night it could deliver disaster because these freak waves travel at high speed across oceans.

We saw the damage caused in Japan by a Tsunami and once again that nation lives in close proximity to the ring of fire and has a long history of water damage over earlier centuries.  The Japanese coastline is protected by sea walls to give a degree of protection from water washing inland. and sirens are strategically placed to give early warnings.

Our tenure in Australia is short in world terms and there is evidence that this sort of water damage may not have been unusual. Apparently the risk is deemed to be negligible because of the lack of evidence of a recent event.

That is a very short sighted attitude.  A major Tsunami may only naturally occur at thousand year intervals, but the damage and loss of life possible in an unprepared nation could be catastrophic.   The fact that we have not had such an experience is no guarantee that it can not happen.

Perhaps what happened in New Zealand earlier this year may  be a warning we should not ignore !

The House Price Dilemma !

 It is remarkable how land used for grazing cows suddenly increases in value the moment someone suggests it is suitable for housing sites.  Landcom has just bought an 873 hectare block at Wilton, inland from Wollongong for $ 258 million dollars, despite an independent valuer setting its price $ 102 million lower just a year ago

  A similar price evaluation is under way at Jamberoo, inland from Kiama.  This is traditional dairying country and there is strong opposition to development because existing housing is struggling to get connection to an inadequate sewerage system, and the narrow farm roads could not stand volume traffic.

The price of housing is determined by supply and demand. We have an ever growing Australian population and we are not building enough new houses and consequently the stock of existing housing is ever increasing upwards to the point the median price has now passed the million dollar mark.

Interest rates are at a traditional low level and this has brought many first home buyers into the market with mortgage repayments taking a dangerous slice of their income stream.  This home price inflation has been their safeguard.  If the repayment pressure gets too great they can return the house to the market and probably make a profit.

New housing at Wilton and Jamberoo will initially be cheaper than homes in Sydney because the residents will lack road and rail connection to city jobs and it will take a long time for civic amenities, like shopping centres and schools to catch up.

That has been the situation for as long as the city of Sydney has grown ever outward.  Eventually, these new estates become enveloped as an integral part of the city and feed into the job market.  We despair at the ever rising price of homes and yet the catalyst to disaster is the inevitability that at some time interest rates will edge higher.

In many ways, this housing market is like the game of Musical Chairs.  A group of people circle a number of chairs and each needs to find a seat when the music stops.  Of course, there are more people than chairs and consequently some people miss out on a seat and are eliminated.

The money market is the great unknown.  Downturns are cyclical, and for home owners failing to make their mortgage payment that is where the music stops.   The buyers melt away and home price realization sets in. In such a situation a price drop is the only way to make a sale.

The danger zone is in the amount of new people entering the housing market with a minimum  deposit and repayments taking a major slice of their income.   Ever a small increase in the interest rate could take them to tipping point and create a " buyers market " - devoid of buyers.

It stands to reason that if we indulge in overpriced land on the city perimeter, we perpetuate the over priced value of new housing and that caused the median price to rise ever higher.  Perhaps a time for the prudent to give thought to what happens when the music stops !

A Controversial Conviction !

The name Kathleen Folbigg is familiar to many people.   She has spent the last eighteen years in prison, serving a thirty year sentence for the murder of four of her children.  It was a controversial murder trial that put her behind bars because the medical examiner could find no evidence that these four children did not die of natural causes.

It seems that babies Caleb, Patrick, Sarah and Laura all died before they reached their second birthday and the odds against this happening seemed improbable.  Public opinion was sharply divided and the tipping point came when the mother's diaries were introduced as evidence.

Kathleen Folbigg wrote that she was experiencing " difficulties " in managing her babies and the prosecution convinced the jury that this was the motive that caused the mother to smother her children. Despite any evidence, the jury brought down a guilty verdict and the judge sentenced accordingly.

A lot of people think this conviction and sentence is wrong and this led to a Court of Appeal hearing which upheld the outcome.  During all this time, the prisoner has not wavered in claiming her innocence.

The case has caused many people to compare it to the Lindy Chamberlain conviction, where she spent time in prison after a Dingo abducted her baby and a police investigation claimed to find incriminating blood stains in the family car.  Innuendo was rife on public media and Lindy served time in prison until an item of children's clothing was found in a Dingo den.  The appeal that followed totally cleared her and she received an apology. 

Now a fourteen page petition bearing the signature of  ninety medical practitioners and science leaders has been presented to the Governor of New South Wales calling for Kathleen Folbigg to be granted an immediate pardon.   This stems from the recent unravelling of the human genome.  Scientists are now finding that two of the children carried a mitigation of their calm2 gene which made them susceptible to death in infancy and the other two had this in a milder form.

It is significant that the prosecution offered no valid evidence to indicate smothering, and yet Kathleen Folbigg was convicted on purely circumstantial evidence.  It seemed improbable that four children in the same family would all die of natural causes and this doubt was taken into account when the jury made their verdict.

Obviously, the New South Wales Governor will give this petition appropriate consideration and it is likely to be granted.   The prisoner would have become eligible for parole in 2028 when she had served twenty-five years of her sentence, but a pardon will raise the matter of compensation.

This will probably continue the controversy.   How do you compensate someone for the loss of eighteen years of their life, stuck in a prison cell for a crime they did not commit  ?

A Defence " Black Hole " !

Defence is certainly a big ticket item in the national budget, but in most cases we quickly see value for the money spent.  Most items are bought on a " ready to use " basis from a friendly foreign country, and equipping the Royal Australian Air Force illustrates that option.

Since the end of the second world war its fighter aircraft have been sourced from Britain, France and America. They are expensive " toys " , but buying " ready made " keeps our fighting force up to date. Unfortunately, that dictum does not apply to our navy.

Our defence planners decided that the navy needed a fleet of twelve " Attack " class submarines to guard the waters surrounding this continent.  The procurement process entailed an intensive evaluation of the submarines produced by a wide variety of countries and the final choice was between Japan and France.

A deal was struck with France and it was a complex arrangement.  The pressure hull for the submarines would be built in France and then brought to our Osborne naval dockyard Adelaide for the final internal fitting out and installation of defence and offense systems and. its internal structure.  This was intended to give the workers in Adelaide the skills necessary to maintain this new submarine fleet in the future years of this century.

A mix of production delays and cost blow outs has Australia thinking of walking away from this deal.  The first of these twelve submarines is now not expected to become operational until the mid 1930's and our underwater defence rests in the hands of the  dysfunctional Collins class boats which are well past their " use by " date.

The cost factor is also causing increasing alarm.  When this submarine option was approved by parliament the public was told the final price would be fifty Million dollars.   That had moved upward to eighty million by 2015 and the pundits now estimate that it will reach ninety million by the time the first boat is ready to be handed over to our navy.

The problem with contracts of this nature is that defence needs are constantly changing as new technology applies to submarine warfare and needs to be incorporated in these new boats.  Keeping design up to date will now involve adding Lockheed Martins new combat system which will be an added cost and add further complexity to the construction process.

It would have been a lot quicker and cheaper to buy submarines " off the shelf " from either Japan or France and simply add the warfare systems here, but that would have reduced the job skills and labour content we wanted to create in Australia.  It is a lesson we should have learned from a similar experience when we obtained our existing Collins class boats in a similar manner, only to find that they failed to endure to expectations.

This long lead time leaves a gaping hole in our sea defences that will not be filled far into the future.  Perhaps trying to fit too many objectives adds to the complexity, and a rethink is necessary.  If so, this contract delay has already cost us two billion dollars !

Getting " Aged Care " Right !

 The report on aged care makes grim reading.  It details evidence of poor food and neglect and instances where staff ratios are unable to deliver the respect and care that the glossy brochures promise.  Aged care is a growing industry that needs professional standards to attract career minded people to replace the untrained.  Amid all this gloom and doom, one aspect of government service now in place deserves commendation.

In the past, when people in aged care needed to consult a specialist doctor or have treatment at an outdoor clinic the task of getting them to those appointments usually fell to relatives or friends.  Often parking was impossible in proximity close to the intended destination and the frail lacked the ability to walk even short distances.

Even worse, some aged residents had no family support and their only movement option was to take a taxi to and from the appointment.  If they were lucky, they might be given a transport voucher which reduced the journey price by half, but they were seriously out of pocket.

In New South Wales we now have a a service called " Community Transport ".  It comprises a fleet of fully equipped ambulances crewed by both a driver and a medically trained attendant.  They pick up residents from nursing homes or aged care homes and deliver them into the waiting rooms of the service provider, and then return them to their place of residence after the consultation or treatment.

These ambulances are decked out in the traditional ambulance livery and and have the consequent road rights. The internal fittings are impressive. Their passenger can travel seated or lay on a traditional wheeled gurney and they are under trained medical care at all times.  The attendant has similar training to a paramedic and these ambulance transports are equipped with oxygen and other medical facilities to respond to the patients medical needs.

There is no charge for this service and the vehicle numbers seem sufficient to meet demand.  The attending crews are both efficient and courteous and it seems no aged care resident should now miss a medical appointment because of transport difficulties, and that journey is made in a vehicle specifically configured to carry the patient safely and meet their medical needs.

Obviously, this costs the government a lot of money in providing and running the fleet of vehicles and crewing them with trained and courteous people, but it is fast becoming an essential service in the provision of aged care.

What the report now laying in government hands  clearly shows is that similar professionalism needs to extend to the aged care industry.  At present, some aged care establishments simply recruit untrained people on the basis of long hours at minimum pay levels.  This needs to change to a career path where aged care workers seniority advances with their skill component and pay level.

The workings of the Community Transport fleet illustrate what is possible when professional standards are applied to this essential industry.

Trial by Media !

The basic tenet of the Australian justice system is that a person accused of a crime is deemed to be innocent until guilt is established in a court of law.  It is the duty of the prosecutor to present sufficient evidence to convince a court that a law has been broken and that crime will be punished by whatever penalty is enshrined in the law books of the state involved.

The exception to that rule seems to apply to the crime of rape.  Anonymous letters accusing a cabinet minister of rape fifty-three years ago, long before he won a seat in parliament, much less rose to head a ministry, has been circulating widely in Canberra.

Copies of this letter were received by the prime minister, the leader of the opposition, an ex-prime minister and the ABC which promptly put it to air but deleted the identity of the accused.  As a result, this rape charge is hanging over the heads of all who hold ministries in our present government.

The Feminist movement is shrill in its demand that this minister be relieved of his portfolio and stood aside.  It is doubtful if this charge can ever be proved - or disproved - in court because the rape victim  returned to Adelaide in June and took her own life.  Despite the passage of time, no official statement had been made to New South Wales police and consequently they had suspended any investigation into the matter.

In Canberra circles, the name of that minister is widely known.  Innuendo is rife and this brings intense pressure on the prime minister, considering the nation may go to the polls before the end of this calendar year.   The opposition is dealing with a rape claim within its own ranks and the opposition leader has stood aside from making political capital from the issue.

Rape is a horrendous crime and this victim claims it happened to her when she was sixteen years old.  Quoting from the anonymous letter, ex -prime minister Malcolm Turnbull commented that it seemed " a pretty horrific " rape and the woman kept extensive diaries that might be helpful at any coronial or other enquiry.

The Feminist movement has been very successful in driving from office predators who use the power of  the positions they hold to coerce women into unwanted sex, sometimes by the physical act of rape.  The power of social media can make life untenable to any man so named even if proof capable of convincing a court is impossible to obtain.  The stigma sticks, and the accused are often driven from office.

Now it seems this tactic is intruding into politics.  Even if this man is notorious in government circles for using his ministerial power to force underlings to submit to his sexual advances a charge needs to succeed in a court room and a penalty delivered according to law.

Politics is a dirty business and the reputation of a political party can be sullied by carefully placed innuendo.  What is suggested in this anonymous letter deserves investigation, but whatever outcome needs to satisfy the rigorous demands of the legal system.

The " Two Wheeled " Armada !

When we view a scene from a city in Asia it is the use of two wheeled transport that is overwhelming.  When China was a relatively undeveloped nation this brought scenes of thousands of people on bicycles, but as prosperity gained a hold that scene changed to motorcycles and scooters. 

This moving mass of two wheeled transport was the changing scene in China, Vietnam and our nearest neighbour, Indonesia, but in recent times the use of two wheeled transport has risen sharply here in Australia.

The statistics are compelling.  The number of motorcycles registered in New South Wales in 2000 numbered  87,291 and this increased to 249,487 by December, 2020.  There was a similar increase in scooter registrations which climbed from 945 to 12,600 in that same period.

To some extent, this may be attributed to the coronvirus lockdown. A motorcycle is cheaper to buy than a car, and a motorcycle is more expensive to purchase than a lower powered scooter, and both offer a significant saving in registration and insurance costs .   The fuel they consume for the same distance travelled is more economical when compared to a car.

It seems that when both income and job security were threatened by the coronavirus pandemic car sales stalled as the economics of two wheeled transport took hold.  Our traffic flow now contains an ever growing mix of motorcycles and scooters and there is no reason to expect this to decrease in the future.

A rider on a motorcycle or scooter has less protection than a person in a car and is subjected to the same road rules, but they also take less space to park and that is being ignored when city parking plans are implemented.  In recent times, bicycle travel is being promoted by the creation of special bike lanes and both motorcycles and scooters are excluded.  Bicycles completely evade registration and insurance costs

It is interesting to compare car growth for that same period..  Car registrations in 2000 totalled 2.61 million passenger vehicles and that increased to 2.99 million in December, 2020., but designated parking spaces for two wheeled vehicles actually decreased over that same period.

It is evident that the change to electric propulsion applies to both cars and two wheeled vehicles but the innovation of self driving transport will most likely be restricted to four wheel vehicles.  The economics of motorcycles and scooters may persist as that form of transport delivers a form of independence missing from the driverless car.

 What is evident is that the two wheeled revolution has arrived in Australia and parking arrangements need to accommodate the growing numbers  Street parking clearly favours cars and yet the space reserved for a single car can park several two wheeled vehicles.

We are building new car parks at railway hubs and once again the needs of the two wheeled brigade are being ignored.  Whether we like it or not, Australia is part of Asia and this two wheeled phenomenon has burst on the local transport scene and will be an integral part of our future.

It can not continue to be ignored  !

The " Home Defence " Equation !

 Many people have been following the trial of a young man charged with manslaughter as it proceeds through a Sydney court.  It raises the question that worries most householders.  Precisely what are their rights when it comes to mounting a defence against an intruder who breaks into their home  ?

This young man and his girlfriend were at home when a drug affected man armed with what turned out to be an imitation pistol and with a knuckle duster burst through the door and threatened them.  In the fight that followed, the male householder was knocked unconscious.

His girlfriend fought the man off and managed to chase him out into the street, where the fight continued. When the householder recovered he grabbed a Samurai sword and joined the fight in the street, striking the intruder a fatal blow on the head with the sword.

The police investigation that followed resulted in the Public Prosecutor charging the householder with manslaughter, despite his plea that his girlfriend was calling for help and his action was in her defence. He was unaware that the pistol was a fake and had a genuine concern for their lives.

The court heard evidence that the slain man was high on Ice at the time of the home invasion, and in todays world that is not an unusual situation.  Many people reading about this trial are picturing themselves in a similar situation, and wondering how their reaction would affect both their lives and their liberty.

Unfortunately, there is no clear answer to that question.  All individual cases are considered on their merits and usually the outcome depends on how the jury interprets the evidence given.  In this case, the unusual factor was the presence of a Samurai sword.  This was a fearsome weapon carried by Japanese officers during the second  world war and could create horror in civilian minds.

Defence seems to be a matter of balancing the risk with the degree of force used to contain the threat.  It could be argued that use of the sword was reasonable against a gun when the fight was within the house, but the intruder had been driven into the street, where the sword was an over reaction.

There is also a very different interpretation of legal force between civilians and police officers.  When police encounter a person armed with a weapon, who refuses to drop that weapon, they are rarely charged if they fatally fire their own firearm.

Fortunately, burglars discovered by a householder breaking into a house usually swiftly depart  without the threat of violence.  The danger comes from drug affected people in the grip of hallucinations they would totally disregard when sober.  The outcome may be settled in a courtroom against  the degree of force used by the householder in relation to the risk posed.

In the heat of battle, that is a very hard component to successfully judge.