Australian Independence !

The Mandarins of the Chinese Communist party are displeased with Australia for a number of reasons. We have called them to account for their actions in Hong Kong in which they have simply torn up a legal agreement with Britain which was part of the hand back of that colony to its original owner.

They are further displeased because we are criticising their seizure of islands in the South China sea and the treatment of minorities in Xinjiang.  Vast numbers of Muslims have been herded into concentration camps where attempts are made to suppress their individuality and force them into the " Han " mould.

Perhaps our greatest " sin " is to demand a public enquiry into the coronavirus outbreak that has shut down world trade, put milllions out of work and cut a swathe of death by way of this mysterious pandemic.  It started in China and the Communist party wants to deflect blame.

Australian exports to China constitute about $27 billion annually and the Chinese authorities are selectively  rejecting trade categories which will hurt our balance of trade. When Australian trade goods reach the dock in China, customs officials seem to find dubious reasons to reject their release.   This has been applied to Australian barley and wheat and now tonnes of live rock lobster look likely to be sent to a landfill.

Australian wine is being rejected and the ban may extend to timber, copper and even coal.  The Chinese authorities are also actively persuading Chinese tourists to cross Australia off their travel itinerary and not send their children to our universities.

Chinese trade officials are refusing to take phone calls from their Australian counterparts.  This is a form of trade sabotage carried out at junior level in the hope that Australia will cave in and toe the Beijing line.  The problem is that if we bow to Chinese pressure it will become unrelenting and we will be drawn in to the category of a Chinese subject state.

This is a clash with China that was inevitable.  In the long term, it may be a good thing because we are becoming too reliant on one country for a share of both out imports and exports.  There is nothing like a shortage to create local manufacturing ingenuity and we have a big, friendly neighbour in India which has a shipping route to and from Australia free of the constraints of the South China sea.

A trade war is something China is forcing upon us.  We had a reasonably mutual relationship in place before China started to dictate impossible terms on our diplomatic stance.  This spat with China will slow our recovery from the pandemic but it is the price we need to pay to keep our independence.

We will need to find new markets for our goods and we will inevitably see price increases for many  items cheaply produced in China like solar roof panels.  This is the age of AI and robotics and these can overcome the advantage of a low cost workforce that China uses to capture market share.

We are fast heading into an era where a world food shortage will give our farm exports a decisive advantage.  A cool head and a steady hand may make this temper tantrum short lived as the Chinese tend to plan for the long term.

With international relations, it is sometimes a measure of short term pain - for a long term gain.  China may live to regret starting this trade war !