Tension in the South China Sea !

As the world grapples with the Coronavirus, tensions in the South China sea have slipped out of newspaper headlines.   This is an international waterway through which a third of the world's shipping passes and China has laid claim to it as their territorial waterway.

What were virtually shoals have been dredged and made into islets which now contain airstrips and military installations. Half a dozen other nations lay claim to parts of this sea and when the matter went to the United Nations the Chinese claim was rejected.  China is now patrolling the waterway with its naval forces and is forcibly displacing foreign fishing boats which have fished this sea for centuries.

It is fast developing into an exercise in brinksmanship.  Under US leadership, ships of various navies sail through the South China sea and ignore Chinese challenges.  At present, Australia's HMAS Parramatta is in  company with the USS America,  USS Barry and USS Bunkers Hill in testing  communications, aviation operations and shipping manoeuvres in peaceful transit.


The Chinese have made no move to restrict commercial shipping or stop passenger jets passing over this waterway beyond demanding that they seek Chinese clearance, which is being ignored.  So far the Chinese have not tried to enforce their claimed right beyond sailing menacingly close to other naval vessels and flying jets low overhead.  Physical confrontation has been confined to ramming fishing boats from other nations to clear the way for their own fishing fleet.

There is obvious danger here as China continues to build a credible blue water navy.  The Chinese navy is fast building a fleet of aircraft carriers and it will have the advantage of the waterway being close to its home ports.  The Chinese government is using aid money to fund development projects in Pacific ocean countries with the view of obtaining port concessions which may serve as naval bases. In the near future, China may have a military presence far outside the waters of the South China sea.

 It is hard to envisage just what is in President Xi Jinping's mind when  it comes to this claim on the South China sea.  Is China looking to further acquisition of land to resettle its vast population or to safeguard trading routes to the rest of the world ?

When competing navies clash over a disputed waterway there is the danger of over reaction.  This is an area where an accident or unclear intention can rapidly get out of hand.  It is probably the most dangerous flash point on the planet  !