Thursday, 30 April 2020

A Senseless Strike !

Just after the end of the second world war we had electricity blackouts in New South Wales. The power stations were running short of coal because the miner's unions were striking to resist the installation of longwall mining equipment.  They claimed the only coal mined in NSW would be by men wielding picks and shovels.
The government of the day sent in the army to get coal from open cut mines.  Resistance against innovation has been with us since the industrial revolution and today mining would be unimaginable if that pick and shovel era had persisted.

Another similar confrontation is taking place in our transport sector.  The $2.4 billion purchase of new electric train sets to service the Central Coast, South Coast, Newcastle and Blue Mountains sits idle because the powerful Rail, Tram and Bus Union is refusing to crew the new trains.

Essentially, this is a demarcation dispute.   In the rest of the world these modern trains operate with just a  driver, but the unions here demand that each train also has a " guard ", and that is a holdover from the old days of steam trains.  On stations with a curved platform the driver could not see the length of the train and the guard waved a flag to signal that it was safe to proceed.  The modern train has cameras situated to show the driver conditions within and outside the train he or she is driving.

These modern trains are being built in South Korea and they are arriving here in batches of ten each month.  It will take months of testing across the intended routes before they will officially go into service and that is not happening because of the union boycott.  As a result, commuters face severe overcrowding on the old train sets which lack space for luggage and the modern amenities that make train travel a part of twenty-first century life.

What is infuriating is that this strike persists despite the New South Wales government agreeing to staff the trains with a driver - and a guard.  The unions want a water tight guarantee that there will be a guard on each train in the network - forever, and no government can foretell what innovations might develop in the future.

This Coronavirus drop in passenger numbers delivers an opportunity to get the new train testing done with less disruption to existing services but the opportunity is being wasted.  Each year the number of commuters  travelling by train grows steadily and the new train sets will deliver long asked for innovations such as charging points for mobile phones and space for bikes and other luggage.

The public have every right to be angry about this senseless strike.  The reason for having train guards has long ceased but union  persistence in feather bedding the workforce is forcing NSW to be out of step with the rest of the world.  Just imagine the coal mining industry today if that " pick and shovel " edict had become a reality  !

Wednesday, 29 April 2020

Chinese Arrogance !

China is threatening an economic boycott of Australia because our government wants a scientific investigation into how and where COVID-19 originated and what can be done to prevent other new diseases appearing in the future.   Our over populated world was threatened by Ebola originating in Africa and then SARS and now COVID-19 in China. In all three cases the point of origin seems to be "wet markets " where native animals are butchered for human consumption.

The Chinese Communist party is sensitive to criticism of its handling of this outbreak.  It tried to stop the news from reaching the west and has since contrived to  suggest it was an economic weapon designed in America and infiltrated into Wuhan in China.  China has engaged in a " disinformation " campaign to shift the blame.

The Chinese ambassador in Australia has threatened our exports to China worth $153 billion in 2018-19.  He specifically claimed Chinese parents may hesitate to send their children to Australian universities If such a boycott eventuates it will be government inspired and not a rejection by the Chinese masses, but it could decimate our exports of beef, wine and the growing vegetable market. It is the Chinese Communist party which controls the levers of power on what goes in and what comes out of China.

A similar threat has watered down criticism of China in France and other European capitals have become hesitant.  The problem is China is now the world's second biggest economy and it can pick and choose where it places orders.  Economic power is related to political power and the government of China insists that Communist dogma over rules all other issues.

So far we have been lucky.  Ebola was halted before it spread across the world.  COVID-19 threw the world economy into turmoil with many deaths, but there is every chance that another new disease may emerge weaponized to kill more than half the world population.  We urgently need to concentrate scientific research to develop vaccines ready to stop such pandemics cutting a swathe across the earth.

It would be a tragedy if Chinese sensitivities  put the brake on scientific research to find a vaccine for the Coronavirus and to look for ways to stop such new diseases from emerging.  Apart from the madness of a nuclear war, the biggest threat to the human race comes from the emergence of a super pandemic.  This Coronavirus is a warning of what is possible.

Perhaps the world needs to rethink this power equation.  Trade is a two way deal.  The Chinese economy would come to a grinding halt if the world refused to buy from China - or refused to sell unless its scientific safeguards were met.

Tuesday, 28 April 2020

Aged Care Risk Factor !

Easing the Coronavirus lockdown is bringing the prime minister into conflict with the aged care industry.  Mr Morrison  last week blasted the aged care sector for exceeding the Australian Health Care Protection Committee's aged care guidelines by implementing near-blanket visitor bans.  He threatened to force operators to seek official permission for lockdowns.

The problem is that this Coronavirus pandemic is particularly deadly to people aged over sixty and aged care is exactly where such people are concentrated.  Even when lockdown is implemented there is still the problem of staff and the necessary medical people whom work shifts carrying the virus into the facility.   In several Australian nursing homes this has run riot amongst residents and there have been numerous deaths.

This has caused a coalition of seven aged care peak bodies to demand action from state and federal governments to agree to a " revised statement - regarding enhanced resident protection that confirms that additional restrictions beyond guidelines are necessary."

Unfortunately, many aged care residents are suffering varying stages of dementia and loved ones visit constantly as a relief measure.  Cessation of face to face visits causes anxiety and yet we hear news stories from overseas where the virus has run through aged care and killed thousands of people. That has been less replicated here, but multiple deaths have occurred in some locations.

It seems the schools are about to reopen and work restrictions will be partially lifted but the virus will be with us for an indefinite period of time. Perhaps a partial remedy would be the use of tablets in aged care to allow electronic face to face visits without the risk of spreading the virus.  That other rule of keeping people a metre and a half apart would apply when visitors were allowed to come into aged care for a visit.  Such measures would reduce, but not eliminate the risk.

Where actual face to face visits are allowed it would be wise if visitors were required to have that tracking app installed on their phones. In the event of an alert that they had been near an infected person the aged person they visited could be isolated within the home.  In most aged care, residents who are transferred to a hospital or visit an outside medical facility are required to serve a period of isolation on their return.

It is probably too early to open aged care to unlimited visitors but with reasonable cautions an acceptable  risk ratio is possible.  Where it is allowed, common sense and visit duration would be the criteria that should apply.


Monday, 27 April 2020

A Foolish Remark !

When the speaker is the President of the United Sates, what he says is expected to be taken seriously. Donald Trump now says he was being sarcastic when he suggested people could protect themselves from the Coronavirus by injecting themselves with disinfectant.

In fact, Trump's on air remarks were directed at Dorothy Birx, the physician who coordinates the White House Coronavirus response and Bill Bryan, an official from the Department of Home Security.  That remark could have been interpreted as an official response by a potential audience of over three hundred million people.

The medical community was swift to issue a disclaimer.  Injecting a disinfectant does not kill Coronavirus and the most likely outcome is a slow and painful death.  The makers of disinfectant such as Dettol were quick to distance themselves from the president's claim.  One of the problems is that Trump is held in such awe by his fervent supporters that some may take that remark as a command.  The outcome could be tragic.

The United States is paying a steep price for a slow response when this pandemic burst onto the world.  The death toll from the virus has passed fifty thousand people and shows no sign of slowing. With that sort of mortality it is no wonder that the president's remarks could be taken seriously.  As soon as the president went to air the nation's emergency 911 hotline swamped with calls seeking advice.

This is an election year and Trump is seeking another four years in the White House.  It is likely that his opponent will be Joe Biden who sought to capitalize on that foolish remark by issuing his own statement with a tweet saying " I can't believe I have to say this, but please do not drink bleach " !

Four years into the job of president and Donald Trump is still having problems separating the responsibility of office with the freedom he enjoyed as a tycoon movie star and building developer.
He has still not filled many department head posts vacant when he won office and his administration has been a shambles with constant firings and resignations.  The whole world will be watching that election in November with bated breath.

The office of President of the United States was synonymous with that of " world leader ".  It is doubtful if Trump rose to the expected level in that role. This coming November the voters will decide if he deserved another term of office.

Sunday, 26 April 2020

The " Lucky " Country !

Australia has long been known as the " lucky country " because good fortune seems to come our way. There is no doubt that we have fared well with this Coronavirus pandemic that is sweeping the world. The figures speak for themselves.   So far just 6675 citizens have contracted the disease and 78 have died and that is across a population that exceeds twenty-five million.   What is even more encouraging is that five thousand patients have caught the disease and made a full recovery.

The reason this is so is because we acted early and boldly.   We simply shut down the business cycle and forced millions out of work.  It was a heavy handed approach to keep people one point five metres apart and promote constant hand washing and other hygiene defences.  Very quickly the infection rate slowed and we are now entering the recovery phase.

The big danger is if people think the crisis is over - and start getting careless. We were spared the disease running out of control simply because the forced isolation reduced the opportunity for infected people to pass the virus on to others.  In particular, the death rate is concentrated on the elderly and those over sixty are most at risk.  We need to retain that defensive wall in care homes and protect our aged where ever they may gather.

Eventually a vaccine will clear the way for crowd scenes and the return of spectator sport but in this early stage we will need to reduce the numbers in shops and retain that strict hygiene protocol.  We can expect new infection clusters and each will necessitate the imposition of local draconian movement restrictions to limit the spread.   We need to accept that in good grace.

Our national economy has taken a big hit.  A promised surplus has morphed into a massive deficit as money has been distributed to ease the burden for those forced out of work and it is essential that we get the country earning again.  Unfortunately, what we know as " normal " means packed public transport and a dense increase in road traffic and that can cause an infection outbreak unless we continue to use good hygiene control.  The need for constant disease testing will continue.

The schools are reopening and it is likely that border restrictions will enable overseas students to return to our universities but the numbers are expected to be lower.  The jobs recovery will proceed slowly as industry gears to full production and some industry segments will recover faster than others.  It is unlikely that closely packed venues like movie theatres will gain popularity until that vaccine becomes a reality.

Australia survived the Coronavirus with flying colours.  Now we face the difficult task of returning to normalcy - whatever that is ?   This has been a watershed moment in our history and Australian life will be very different when the implications of this national shutdown finally settles  !


Saturday, 25 April 2020

Facebook's Graphic Images !

This week brought another example of the poor taste of subject matter making an appearance on the internet.  Four Victorian police officers were killed when a heavy refrigerated truck ploughed into two police cars stopped in the emergency lane on Melbourne's Eastern freeway.

Within hours, pictures of the mangled remains of these four human beings were circulating  on Facebook.  The fact that they were police officers in uniform simply added to the disrespect shown and the scene depicted would have been available to relatives before the usual courtesy of notification of the deaths was possible.

The story that emerged is typical of the duties police undertake on a daily basis.  Two officers in a marked police car were observing traffic when they noticed a Porsche speeding at 140 kph and pulled it over.  That offence called for the car to be impounded and they called for backup, resulting in another police car with two more officers arriving on the scene.

Somehow, a heavy refrigerated truck struck the police cars and the group of officers, killing them instantly.  It is alleged that the driver of the Porsche was unharmed and he immediately commenced to take pictures of the accident scene on his mobile phone camera.  It is further alleged that he then left the scene on foot and shared the pictures with friends, resulting in them appearing on Facebook.

The driver of the truck remained on the scene and was later admitted to hospital when he suffered a medical  episode related to the accident.  There seems to be evidence that the Porsche driver had been drug tested and returned a positive result before the crash occurred.

This 41 year old Porsche driver is a multi millionaire mortgage broker.  He is in police custody but has not been charged.  The police have appealed to Facebook to take down those photos and it seems that once again human dignity is a casualty when photographs of what is a crime scene appear on the internet to appease the bad taste held by some viewers.

There are elements of the criminal fraternity who will rejoice at police deaths, just as those with insular tendencies applauded the massacre of Muslims in prayer in their mosques.  No doubt Facebook will take down these pictures, but the damage has already been done and most decent people will be outraged that this type of thing gets wide publicity.

Once again it is evident that Facebook is a double edged sword.  It is a media outlet open to everyone and that includes the few with bizarre ideas of what constitutes " entertainment ".  Unfortunately, Facebook has been slow to implement a cull of matter that is offensive to good taste !

Friday, 24 April 2020

Tension in the South China Sea !

As the world grapples with the Coronavirus, tensions in the South China sea have slipped out of newspaper headlines.   This is an international waterway through which a third of the world's shipping passes and China has laid claim to it as their territorial waterway.

What were virtually shoals have been dredged and made into islets which now contain airstrips and military installations. Half a dozen other nations lay claim to parts of this sea and when the matter went to the United Nations the Chinese claim was rejected.  China is now patrolling the waterway with its naval forces and is forcibly displacing foreign fishing boats which have fished this sea for centuries.

It is fast developing into an exercise in brinksmanship.  Under US leadership, ships of various navies sail through the South China sea and ignore Chinese challenges.  At present, Australia's HMAS Parramatta is in  company with the USS America,  USS Barry and USS Bunkers Hill in testing  communications, aviation operations and shipping manoeuvres in peaceful transit.


The Chinese have made no move to restrict commercial shipping or stop passenger jets passing over this waterway beyond demanding that they seek Chinese clearance, which is being ignored.  So far the Chinese have not tried to enforce their claimed right beyond sailing menacingly close to other naval vessels and flying jets low overhead.  Physical confrontation has been confined to ramming fishing boats from other nations to clear the way for their own fishing fleet.

There is obvious danger here as China continues to build a credible blue water navy.  The Chinese navy is fast building a fleet of aircraft carriers and it will have the advantage of the waterway being close to its home ports.  The Chinese government is using aid money to fund development projects in Pacific ocean countries with the view of obtaining port concessions which may serve as naval bases. In the near future, China may have a military presence far outside the waters of the South China sea.

 It is hard to envisage just what is in President Xi Jinping's mind when  it comes to this claim on the South China sea.  Is China looking to further acquisition of land to resettle its vast population or to safeguard trading routes to the rest of the world ?

When competing navies clash over a disputed waterway there is the danger of over reaction.  This is an area where an accident or unclear intention can rapidly get out of hand.  It is probably the most dangerous flash point on the planet  !

Thursday, 23 April 2020

The " Virgin Airline " Scramble !

The Coronavirus outbreak put the final nail in the coffin for Virgin Australia.  This airline  launched in Australia in 2000 and it has struggled with a load of debt. New passenger aircraft are costly items and when the virus forced the airlines to shutter terminals the five billion owing forced the company into administration.

What we are now seeing is a mad scramble by the states attracted by the sixteen thousand jobs on Virgins books.  It is currently based in Brisbane, but both Sydney and Melbourne are very interested and there are about ten very wealthy Australians considering the options of entering the airline business, including transport billionaire  Lindsay Fox.

It seems that the Federal government is reluctant to bail out the airline because most of its stock is owned by several very wealthy overseas airlines.  If Virgin is going to continue flying and providing competition with Qantas it needs to shed that debt and realistically that means bankruptcy and a fire sale of assets, and that will happen unless a white knight comes to the rescue.

Several airlines have tried their luck in Australia over many years and the names Ansett, Compass, Australian National Airways and others ended in financial disaster.  Even Qantas has experienced rocky times but Australia is a vast continent with a small, scattered population and air travel is the obvious reality.

The worst possible outcome would be for Virgin to be restructured with new owners but retaining that five billion debt load.  Realistically, it is a failed airline and the investors have lost their money.  The Virgin name has value and so do the fleet of modern aircraft that should pass to a new investor at a write down figure because of their present valuation.   Those sixteen thousand employees are on furlough and receiving pay compensation from the Federal government. Basically, a new airline could emerge instantly if the present owners of Virgin were realistic and prepared to walk away with whatever value in the dollar the sale of Virgin would deliver.

We definitely need two airlines in direct competition with one another.  We well remember when airlines in Australia were " managed " and the fares charged by the Ansett and TAA duopoly were the highest in the world and the flights followed one another down the airport runways with monotonous regularity.

Eventually, this Coronavirus threat will be overcome and the Australia that emerges will need to find a new equilibrium.  We are a country of tourists and our economy is based on Australia being a world tourist destination.  That is not possible unless it is served by competing airlines offering realistic flight schedules and attractive prices.

Wednesday, 22 April 2020

Trading Privacy for Health !

Like the rest of the world, we are getting  used to being constantly tested to see if we are showing signs of Coronavirus infection.  If that test proves positive the health people will be vitally interested in where we have been and who we have been with.  It seems that the world of electronics has developed an app that will do that task automatically.

It all revolves around the mobile phone we all carry.   This clever app communicates with every other mobile phone containing a similar app and should the two phones come in 1.5 metre contact with one another for fifteen minutes or more it records the phone number and owners name in its memory bank.

That information would be vital in warning other people that they have been in close contact with an infected person and in many cases the person involved would have no idea of the identity of others.  Perhaps they spent time in a checkout queue or sat on a seat in a crowded bus or train. The health people are getting quite excited at the prospect of being able to track the progress of this virus as a way of removing it from our community.

The government is hoping about forty percent of the public will install this app in their phones to give the sort of herd immunity that would be necessary for success.  They insist that the app will not be used for the collection of other data and its sole function will be to track others who may have come within infection range of a person suffering the virus.

The people who guard our privacy are not so sure and sound a warning.  Electronics is an ever changing world of constant innovation. We are about to encounter the 5G network and all the marvels that promises.  Should someone develop the ability to automatically lock onto this health app it would divulge valuable commercial information on our shopping habits and general movements. Data has become an ever valuable commercial commodity and there are great rewards for the clever people who can devise methods of avoiding security protection.

This virus has changed the world as we knew it and the casualties have been the economy and employment.  We can not expect to return to a modicum of normalcy until the virus has been beaten and we need to make a decision if this app is worth the privacy risk to achieve that objective. There is no doubt it delivers a valuable health tool, and a forty percent takeup rate could be quickly achieved.
It seems that this is a personal decision each person must make !

Tuesday, 21 April 2020

That Arrogant Police Attitude !

Have you ever wondered what would happen if you innocently found yourself in  a confrontation between police and a  criminal in which shots were fired  ?   Suppose you were hit by a stray bullet and suffered an injury ?   You would have an expectation that this would be handled gracefully and sympathetically by the police.

Just such a situation happened to Anne-Marie Petitfile (74) at Hornsby Plaza on June 9, 2016.  Ms Petitfile was buying bread when a knife wielding man began threatening a female senior constable, resulting in her drawing her gun and firing three shots as the man lunged at her.  Ms Petitfile was hit in the left leg by either a bullet or a bullet fragment.

Nearly four years later this matter is being heard in the NSW Supreme Court.  Ms Petitfile is seeking damages from the New South Wales police and they are fighting the claim tooth and nail. Ms Petitfile filed a document claiming she was " ahead of the officer, but at a significant  angle to her right when the shots were fired.  At all material times there was a risk that if the officer discharged her firearm it would result in innocent bystanders being shot ", the document said.

Ms Petitfile says she has suffered and will continue to suffer, loss and damage due to the injury.  She is seeking damages, interest and costs in her claim of negligence and trespass to the person or battery.
In a written defence, lawyers for the state of New South Wales denied negligence or battery had been committed and said the bullet fragment that hit Ms Petitfile was a ricochet.

It is also alleged that the officer was negligent for failing to deploy a Taser or failing to carry one, and failing to use a baton or capsicum spray.  Three shots were fired and the target survived and it was suggested that the officer was not suitably trained to deal with the situation in which she was confronted at Hornsby Plaza.

The state agrees that Ms Petitfile suffered personal injury as a result of the shooting, but did not agree that she would suffer ongoing loss and damage, or that it was liable for the loss.  It also denied negligence. The defendant says the plaintiff's injury occurred in the investigating and/or suppressing a crime and therefore attracts immunity from suit at common law.

The police hold to the maxim that they are never wrong and they fight all claims vigorously in the law courts. The police do a difficult and dangerous job upholding the law but they also show an attitude of arrogance.  Their public image would be better served if they admitted that accidents sometimes happen and cheerfully accepted a reasonable claim for compensation.  There seems little chance of that happening in this case, or at any time in the future !

Monday, 20 April 2020

Prisoners on Australian Soil !

There have been many sad tales of migrants denied the right to settle in Australia and once again a family awaiting deportation on Christmas Island has a court win that will delay the inevitable.  Priya and her partner Nadesaslingam are from Sri Lanka and they have a valid reason to fear returning to their former homeland.

They are Tamils, and Sri Lanka fought a long and bitter civil war.  The Tamils were on the losing side and as a consequence they suffer reprisals from the victors.  Jobs and education are denied them and the outflow is seeing Tamil refugees seeking a new life in many other parts of the world..

This family has two Australian born daughters, Kopika (4) and two year old Tharunicaa.  They were living happily in Biloela, Queensland when they were detained during a police raid in 2018 and taken to Melbourne.  From there it has been an ongoing life in detention, culminating in them now being the only detainees in the vast detention centre on Christmas island - and that is costing the Australian government somewhere in the region of twenty thousand dollars a day to keep open.

Their supporters - and there are many - were delighted when they won a small victory.  In the Federal Court in Melbourne last week a Justice found that Immigration Minister David Coleman had taken a procedural step to consider using Federal powers to allow Tharunicaa  to apply for a visa.  That meant she was denied procedural fairness because she was not notified her case was being assessed in August 2019, or invited to comment.

This victory will not allow them to stay in Australia, but it will mean that the minister will have to take a new approach to that visa application decision.  That probably means that their stay on Christmas island will be extended and they fear for the mental health of their daughters.  Growing up as prisoners is a far different life from the normality  of their former immersion in the community of Biloela in Queensland.

Once again the final decision will probably be influenced by pressure from the Australian community.  The good citizens of  Biloela want them back and have been noisily petitioning on their behalf.  At the same time, the Commonwealth must maintain vigilance that its immigration laws are being scrupulously obeyed to achieve a fair migrant inflow.

Sadly, it is a young couple and their two Australian born children who are caught in the middle. It illustrates the impossibility of ignoring the emotional angle when immigration is decided purely on the letter of the law  !

Sunday, 19 April 2020

Financial Disaster Beckons !

Unit owners across Australia have been following the Mascot Towers drama with more than passing interest.  Last June, cracks in the building resulted in residents being forced to evacuate with just the clothes on their backs.  It was days before individuals were allowed back under escort to reclaim wallets and personal property.  Since then the situation has steadily worsened.

Initially, the 132 apartment owners were told that remedial action to make the building safe would cost somewhere between twelve and twenty million dollars.  The Owners Corporation commenced civil action to recover costs against possible causes of the damage but the residents have remained locked out and the repair estimates keep growing ever larger.  The latest estimate to fix this building runs to thirty-two million dollars.

This would be a crippling blow to many families, coming on top of the mortgage they owe for the apartment they bought in good faith, and this is compounded by job losses  because of the virus pandemic. Many of the owners contend that this is a financial disaster that goes way beyond their ability to service the loans envisaged.

Now it is proposed to call a special general meeting of owners to consider the options available, and these include selling the building or converting the apartments to affordable housing.  Mascot Towers was a prestige address and the units were sold at varying prices according to their position and outlook.  Owners would obviously lose money on their investment, but they would recover some of that outlay to enable them to make a fresh start.

Selling Mascot Towers in its present condition would attract fire sale bids.  It would appeal to risk entrepreneurs looking to do the minimum to make the structure safe in the hope  rental returns would deliver an ongoing profit. That is not a venture for the faint hearted, but it seems the only hope for apartment owners to recover a portion of their investment.

This debacle raises the question in many minds as to how widespread is the risk of similar defects appearing in other buildings and what action can be taken to shield buyers from falling into an impossible debt situation.  In the vast majority of cases the purchase of a house or an apartment is the biggest financial transaction most people undertake in their lifetime.  Mascot Towers has brought home the reality of the risks involved in that procedure.

The onus falls on the state government as the lawmaker tasked with setting in place the inspection criteria to ensure buildings are constructed according to the appropriate regulations and that adequate funds are set aside on completion to remedy any faults that may later appear.  The experience that has befallen the residents of Mascot Towers and Opel Towers leaves gaps that are yet unfilled.

Saturday, 18 April 2020

Digging a Hole in the Harbour !

A proposed new harbour crossing included in the WestConnex plans differs from the usual method of using boring machines to work underground to bring it to fruition.   This crossing will take the form of a trench dug in the sea floor under the harbour and the tunnel casing constructed on shore and later lowered into that trench.

The tentative plans call for it to extend from the WestConnex at Rozelle to the Warringah  freeway at North Sydney and so far there have been 1450 submissions lodged against it.  The objections relate to both the placement of ventilation stacks and their proximity to schools and houses and the handling of highly contaminated spoil from that trench excavation.

The plans call for most of the spoil excavated for this tunnel to be  dumped at sea but the 142,500 cubic metres from the top layer of the sea bed will have to be treated onshore before it is carted away to landfills.  It is proposed that this be carried out at White Bay, just 150 metres from existing housing and apartments.

This is an entirely new method of tunnel construction and the extent of the harbour floor penetration is not yet determined.  There is no clarity in the purification methods to be used nor is the type of contamination fully known.  There is a danger that even with adequate regulations and the best intentions  there is a chance of an unforeseen spill or accidental event.

Nearby residents contend that they bought their houses and apartments in good faith, with no warning from the state government about " such adverse impacts ".   Even with good luck preventing accidents they will have to live for a period of time with an unsightly vista and unpleasant odours which will impact on dwelling prices.

Then there is the issue of those ventilation stacks.  Concern has arisen about Glyphosate which is an ingredient in the weed killer - Roundup, and some scientists have suggested that this could be the trigger for autism.  It seems that Glyphosate is small quantities in also added to car fuel and it could be dispersed wherever these ventilation stacks are located.  If this contention is correct it will certainly compound objections to stack placement.

When construction methods change it is always a trip into the unknown.  It is inevitable that some of this spoil will be dispersed in the harbour and the quantity involved will necessitate major truck movements taking it to landfill.  The government will need to lay out the process in fine detail
 if it hopes to convince residents of its safety  !

Friday, 17 April 2020

Politics - and COVID-19 !

The United States is now suffering the most Coronavirus deaths of all the world countries and President Donald Trump is trying to distance himself from the blame.  He has launched an attack on the World Health Organization.  America is the biggest contributor to the WHO and Trump has announced that this money flow will cease immediately.

The WHO is an offshoot of the United Nations and Trump accuses it of being " China centric ". and it had not taken a strong enough stand against the superpower.  The US government will suspend WHO payments for  sixty to ninety days while it conducts an investigation into the agency. This comes at a time when the WHO is heavily committed in helping small nations with scant resources to deal with this pandemic.

Trump is now accusing the WHO of promoting China's " disinformation " campaign about the virus that led to a wider outbreak that would have occurred.  He attacked the organization for opposing his decision to restrict travel to China and said that WHO had been slow to declare the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic.  He has long criticised the United Nations for classifying China as a " developing country ".

In true Trump fashion, the president ignores his former speeches on this subject.  At his briefing he was questioned by the media about his previous contention  that China deserved praise for its handling of the crisis.  On January 24 Trump has said " China has been working very hard to contain this virus.  The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency.  It will work out well.  In particular, on behalf of the American people, I  want to thank President Xi. "

Of course all this is simply politics.   The American people go to the polls in November and Trump is seeking another four years in the White House.  It now looks likely that his opponent will be Joe Biden, Barak Obama's vice president and there are clear indications that Trump's support has been slipping.  Trump has been suggesting that an early end to the jobs stand-down may be implemented despite the virus continuing to run out of control.

Unfortunately, this pandemic completely wrecked the world order because of the measures taken to bring it under control.  As a result, we are in recession and it is impossible to guess either the length or the intensity that this will persist.

Trump's self serving cessation of funds to the WHO will simply prolong the pandemic.  This move provoked a comment from the Secretary General of the United Nations,  Antonio Guterres who said " this is not the time to reduce resources to the WHO ".

Now it will all rest on how the American voters view this situation in November !

Thursday, 16 April 2020

Ending Daily Post Deliveries !

It is now perfectly clear that the old days of an " overnight post " are a distant thing of the past.  What is posted in a city now takes three or four days to appear in your city letterbox.  The days when the cost of a postage stamp covered delivery anywhere in Australia and the fact that the cost of a stamp has risen to a dollar ten is a big incentive to find other - cheaper - ways to communicate.  The writing is on the wall that the post office as we know it is abut to retreat further.

Australia Post's own projections expected a $109 million profit last year, growing to $161 million in 2021.  The decrease in the letter flow now makes it more likely that profit will be replaced with losses and this service is contemplating dramatic change.  It may be necessary to tailor the delivery to reflect the cost of a mail person on a motorbike making a call on every home in Australia on a daily basis.

What is on the drawing board is mail delivery retreating to once weekly and those suburban post offices being replaced by automated kiosks.  When the stamp cost broke the dollar mark it became a positive incentive for the business community to embrace direct debit as the preferred business mode. In instances where purchase volumes vary from month to month the bill was emailed to the customer in preference to being sent through the mail.  Those lacking the facilities to receive email were charged a hefty fee for post delivery to continue.

We are reaching the stage where retaining a postal service in reaching breaking point.  The days when the cost of a postage stamp covered delivery to addresses anywhere in Australia was governed by the sheer volume of mail making distance cost attainable.  Australia post conducts a parcel delivery in tandem with its mail service and that is expanding just as the mail is contracting because of the growing popularity of internet shopping.

It seems inevitable that eventually sending a letter will be included within the parcel delivery service and attract a fee commensurate with precisely where in Australia delivery is required.  It will have become a courier service, priced accordingly.  Australia post will expect to recover the cost of its mail service and integrating it with parcel delivery would be a logical option.

Immediate changes to reduce costs concerns not collecting from street post boxes on Sundays to deliver a saving of $7.4 million a year. There are also four thousand retail outlets scattered across Australia, about half of them in rural or remote locations.  It is hard to estimate how the range of services they provide can be dispersed to other commercial competitive businesses in an economic manner.

The numbers using the postal service dwindle each year while the post parcel delivery is constantly expanding.  We are fast reaching the break point where combining the post with parcel delivery makes sense.  This is a natural form of attrition and its implementation is governed by the falling volume of letters in the mail.   It looks like mail delivery is going the way of the Dinosaurs  !

Wednesday, 15 April 2020

Reasonable Rents !

Families renting have protection to stop landlords evicting them onto the street if this Coranavirus lockdown stops them from being able to pay the rent, but what a lot of breadwinners fear is mass unemployment when the virus threat is finally over.  They wonder if the firms they worked for are going to be still in business when the lockdown ends.

Legislation is being put in place to ensure that happens.  Similar protection applies to commercial tenants and once again there is a requirement for both sides to negotiate.  This forced closure has stopped the cash flow and the state government has made it illegal for the owners of premises used for shops,cafes, gyms, hairdressers, restaurants, offices and industrial sites to use eviction because of unpaid rent.

Commercial landlords will not be able to terminate a lease because rent is not being paid and must offer tenants rent relief proportionate to the tenants decline in turnover.  This is part of a six month relief package which will cost the New South Wales government $440 million.  This will take effect through land tax waivers or rebates to be split between business and residential landlords.

Rent for the premises used to conduct a business is usually a major item of business overhead and this seems a practical way of splitting the outcome of the lockdown which has forced trading to cease between the business owner and the landlord.  There is the expectation that both parties will approach the negotiation in a reasonable frame of mind and there js every expectation that the vast majority of businesses should be able to resume when the lockdown ceases.

The other component on a favourable outcome is the attitude of the banks.  Most small businesses need an overdraft from time to time and there is the expectation that when the lockdown ends it will take some time for normal turnover levels to return  Most families have been forced to dip into their savings nest egg and that mood of austerity is likely to prevail until savings levels are again rising. It would be helpful if the banks were accommodating in this respect.

We were experiencing a mini recession before this virus roared out of China and many shopping centres had a plethora of empty shops.  That dismal aspect will be unhelpful to the recovery and owners would be wise to negotiate a realistic rent to encourage new businesses to overcome the expense of fitting out and establishing a new trade.  The fact that many national brands have not survived this downturn will leave major space vacant and some centres will be looking for a market leader to fill that gap.  Thriving surrounding shops are usually the attraction that makes that happen.

The government has made it clear that the recovery will depend on meaningful negotiations to restore trading profitability.and that applies equally to home rentals and the business community.  The end of this virus lockdown is probably a lot closure than the pundits have been predicting  !

Tuesday, 14 April 2020

" Emergency Law " Issues !

The problem with these Coronavirus laws is that they were enacted in an emergency and lacked the depth of consideration by the legal profession before becoming law.  We are now seeing a vast number of people served with a thousand dollar fine which seems to be determined by the individual opinion of the police officer tasked with enforcing compliance.

Legal minds are warning that the aftermath will be a plurality of appeals and in the vast majority of cases these would be dealt with either very leniently or dismissed because of the number of technicalities involved.  The problem with these laws is that they are not instructing people about the black and white.  Once matters are left to police discretion and common sense, common sense is not " common " at all.

The other problem is that while this Coronavirus is a national affliction that is killing people, the laws governing our response vary widely between the various states and territories.  It is very evident that nationally nobody seems to be on the same page.

Legal minds despair that these are laws cobbled together and containing so many "ifs, buts and maybe's " that they are legally not able to be enforced.  They are simply a giant bluff to try and persuade the public to stop congregating in numbers that allows the virus to spread from person to person.

Initially, there was much confusion and some rebellion.  The fact that police began handing out thousand dollar fines quickly brought public behaviour under control and a matter of days later we see encouraging figures in the spread of the disease.  Across the board, the herd is roughly following the guidelines to the extent that the objective sought is being achieved.

Thinking minds will see the benefit of these shock tactics. COVID-19 sprang out of Wuhan, China with little warning and we faced a world Pandemic because airlines distributed people internationally across the globe.  It was on our shores within hours and unless we took immediate steps to counter its spread we faced a calamity.

It took this form of shock tactics to bring about the degree of compliance that limited the spread of the disease.  When the danger passes, the old tried and tested legal system will spring into action and deal with those fines that may have been illegally and illogically imposed.

Some other countries hesitated to take similar action, and that hesitation resulted in the virus rampaging out of control and cutting a swathe of death which we have escaped in this country.


Monday, 13 April 2020

" The Letter " or " The Intent " of the Law ?

New South Wales Arts Minister, Don Harwin has stepped down from cabinet after police issued him with a thousand dollar fine and he was accused of breaching the travel protocol that bans non essential travel over the Easter period.

It seems that while Mr Harwin has certainly not acted in accordance with the intent of that law there is a serious doubt that his actions constitute a breach of its legality.   The Arts minister owns a holiday home at Pearl Beach on the mid north coast and he claims that he has been commuting from there prior to the Coronavirus lockdown.

He also claims that he sought advice within his department and was assured that living at Pearl Beach instead of his city apartment fell within the guidelines.  The police obviously thought otherwise, hence the issue of that thousand dollar fine. Should Mr Harwin decide to appeal that fine there seems a very good chance that it will be set aside.

This illustrates the vast difference between the "letter of the law " and " the intent of the law " .  Very clearly this law was intended to disallow unnecessary travel but it was not a complete ban on all forms of travel.  Evidence has since emerged that during his stay at Pearl Beach Mr Harwin twice travelled to Sydney to shop for new clothes.  It would be hard to substantiate clothing purchase in that " essential " category.

This also illustrates the problem public figures have with the cctv camera system.  Movement through streets or shops is recorded and the travels of a public face can be tracked long after the event. The publicity brought censure to Gladys Berejiklian's government and Mr Harwin graciously stepped down from cabinet to repair that breach.

Members of parliament generally and ministers in particular should remember that they are not ordinary citizens.  There is an expectation that they will behave above the law and not just comply in accordance with the herd. Should their actions result in adverse publicity it is expected that they should fall on their sword to repair the damage.

Mr Harwin's Arts portfolio includes Aboriginal Affairs and the Powerhouse Museum as well as being Special Minister of State and these duties will be shouldered by Mrs Berejiklian.  It is quite possible that Mr Harwin may return to cabinet some time in the future.

Perhaps the main lesson to be learned from this breach of the law's intent is that parliamentarians  should avoid any action that could be interpreted as " seeking a privilege above the law ".  The public are very particular in holding them to that standard  !

Sunday, 12 April 2020

Ending the Cruise Ship Era !

Somehow the sight of the Ruby Princess making an indefinite stay in Port Kembla reflects on the disaster that has overwhelmed the cruise ship industry.  That ship - and man more around the world - are idle because one of the world's fastest growing tourist industries has suffered a setback from which it may not ever fully recover.

The world's shipyards have been churning out new and bigger luxury ships to meet the demand and in the Pacific those ship visits have delivered the life blood to many island communities. The arrival of several thousand passengers for a day visit injects the funds that makes visited cities exciting places. The onboard entertainment provided lucrative work for the musicians and show people tasked with keeping the passengers amused between ports.

When the Coronavirus story hit newspaper headlines the fate of passengers on cruise ships was a prime feature.  It progressed from the need for people to be locked in their cabins to achieve isolation, to ships being refused entry to ports because of plague aboard.  Like the " Rhyme of the Ancient Mariner ", some passengers envisaged being stranded at sea forever.

Those ships are now idle because the cruise trade has totally collapsed.  It is quite possible that many of the companies involved will not survive this disaster because their cash flow has been truncated. Even if the Coronavirus crisis came to a sudden end it is unlikely that many people will venture back to sea while that memory of disaster persists.  It is just too graphic - and too recent - to be easily forgotten.

It seems likely that we will have a glut of cruise ships and very few passengers.  No doubt the companies will engage in heavy advertising campaigns and cut prices to fill cabins but the trade will not replicate the numbers streaming aboard any time soon.  This reluctance to being stranded far from home will also be reflected on aircraft bookings for overseas holidays. This does seem to herald a golden dawn for the numerous holiday destinations within the Australian continent.  The eyes of Australian travellers seem destined to be concentrated within Australia.

The longer Ruby Princess remains docked in Port Kembla the bigger the wound to be suffered by the cruse ship industry.  These are ships with multi million dollar price tags and the cost of keeping them idle runs into huge sums each day.  A crew of a thousand will use it as little more than a dormitory  until the virus abates and their pay will sap company overheads.  The sight of it sitting idle at Port  Kembla will be an ongoing reminder to Wollongong residents of the  perils of an ocean holiday.

The only certainty about change is that when something ceases something new takes its place.  The travel industry will wait with trepidation to see what replaces a badly wounded cruise ship industry  !

Saturday, 11 April 2020

Getting The Message !

This Easter is shaping up as a non event.  Traditionally, it is a time to visit relatives in aged care but most are in strict lockdown and that is definitely off the agenda. Holiday travel is another casualty and those on the road in their cars car expect to be pulled over by the police and asked to justify their journey.

The religious aspect of Easter is also under pressure.  Church attendance surges at both Christmas and Easter but because of the Coronavirus this is being discouraged. This year it will be radio and television that brings the Easter message to people in their own homes.  It took a while for the  need for social isolation to sink in but the measure is now vividly apparent in the scarcity of people in public places and the trains still running half empty.

This Coronavirus burst on the world out of Wuhan, China, and it is not the first Pandemic to originate in the world's most populous country.  We remember when SARS was rampaging through the world and causing fatalities and like COVID-19 that also originated from animals.  In this latest case science has traced the transmission from bats to humans.

What is unclear is if this virus has the ability to be carried by the animals with which we have contact ?   There was an alarming incident in the United States where a tiger at the Bronx zoo came down with Coronavirus symptoms.  It was discovered that his keeper had close contact during the disease's infectious stage.  We await advice as to whether transmission from animal to human is also possible.

In this initial stage of the Coronavirus Pandemic science is suggesting that both cats and ferrets are susceptible to the disease. So far, dogs seem to have a natural immunity, along with chickens, pigs and ducks which have undergone the inoculation process.  It is thought that cats infect one another by way of respiratory droplets and as a species they are known to prowl their home territory on a regular basis.

The problem with new diseases is the time it takes to understand both their origin and all the means of their transmission.  We will eventually develop a vaccine but it is estimated that this could be still be a year away.  Perhaps a good reason to confine the family cat indoors and prevent it socialising with its neighbours.   It seems that isolation of the widest possible spectrum is required to combat COVID-19.

Friday, 10 April 2020

A Conviction Set Aside !

George Pell is now a free man but for the remainder of his life he will be a notorious figure in the eyes of many people.  Because this archbishop was the leader of the Catholic Church in Australia he has become inextricably entwined with the sins of that church.  Many with grievances against the Church of Rome rejoiced in 2018 when a Victorian County court found him guilty of five charges relating to the sexual assault of two choirboys in Melbourne's St Patrick's Cathedral in 1996.  As a result, Pell was sent to prison and served four hundred days behind bars before his appeal to the High Court of Australia saw the sentence quashed unanimously by the seven justices who represent the apex of the Australian legal system.

The day after Pell walked free his detractors launched a graffiti attack on the doors of the Cathedral that featured in his conviction. There are people in Australia who have neither forgiven or forgotten the complicity of the Catholic Church in covering up the activities of paedophile priests.  It became the practice to simply move them to a new parish where they were free to continue their activities.

For many years the church stonewalled  responsibility and Pell was the adjudicator of funds dispersed in compensation.  He fought each case as if the money was coming from his own pocket and as a result he was promoted to high office in the church headquarters in Rome.  Pell became one of the church world leaders to hold the position of adviser to the Pope.

We are all entitled to our own opinion, but the fact remains that the High Court of Australia has in its judgement lifted that sentence  from Pell's shoulders.  He is now 78 years old and it is likely that he will spent the final years of his life as a retired priest living in a monastery set aside for such retirees.It would be grossly unfair if any public appearance resulted in vilification or personal attacks related to the charges brought against him.

That is now a closed book. Pell has been pilloried in a court room and found guilty by a jury, but that judgement has been set aside by the highest judicial body in this land.  Many fair minded people would agree that public opinion may be  branding Pell with the disfavour the church he represents has brought on itself by its refusal to enmesh erring priests in the civil justice system.  It is quite clear that the church considers itself above the law of the lands in which its followers reside.

There are encouraging signs that the church is - ever slowly - moving towards a recognition of its responsibilities to obey civil law.  Whatever Pell may - or may not - have done in the past, he is now a retired old man and he should be left to enjoy his final years in peace !

Thursday, 9 April 2020

A " Rent Strike " Looms !

There is no question that this Coronavirus pandemic has prevented hundreds of thousands of workers from gaining their usual pay packet because of the forced closure of their employer and the government has stepped in with compensation payments to try and fill that gap.  Another relief measure has been a ban on evictions to protect people renting from being forced onto the street while this interruption to employment lasts.

The government has made it clear that this is a time for negotiation between tenants and their landlords. A vast number of people are still working and their pay is unchanged and that eviction ban is a safeguard to prevent hard hearted landlords taking advantage of this situation to maintain the rent flow.

A militant group of twenty-four renters in Melbourne has proposed a " rent strike " and this has quickly spread  to sixteen thousand signatories and could  become viral.  The language used to support this strike is alarming.  There are calls for an indefinite amnesty on rent and mortgage payments  until everybody has recovered from the crisis.  No debts, fines or retaliatory rent hikes for tenants and no adverse rental histories for those who do not rent.

The strike is timed to start in April and the action programme claims housing is a " right " that must be protected by law.  This is in contrast to the government position that both the landlord and the renter need to negotiate a rent reduction while this enforced absence from the workforce lasts.  It is expected that some portion of the compensation provided by the government would be used to service rent obligations.

Just as the government is providing compensation to those forced out of work, it is also providing compensation to the owners of rental property.  Landlords will be given a discount on land tax. In NSW this equates at a saving of $4356 a year on a million dollar property or eight weeks of Sydney's median rent of $525 each week.

The danger is that this rent strike proposal may be taken up across the board and cause the collapse of the entire rental industry.  The fact that the strike also applies to mortgage payments and this could cause the collapse of the banking system.  It is the integration of the money system as we know it that supports the entire economy.

That is the weakness of the Facebook age. An idea like a rent strike can be as infectious as the Coronavirus and if rent and mortgage payments come to a stop in Australia the entire apparatus of government collapses.  A rent strike would have great appeal to many people who have no idea of exactly what they are setting in motion.  Perhaps an orderly end to this Coronavirus pandemic depends on this rent strike not taking common sense out of the equation !

Wednesday, 8 April 2020

The Gap Between " Privacy " and " Justice " !

Gary Jubelin held the rank of  Detective Chief Inspector in the New South Wales police force and served the people of this state for thirty-two years.  He headed the task force investigating the disappearance of William Tyrrell from his grandmothers home in Kendall until he was dismissed from the force and charged with illegally recording a conversation during that investigation.

There is no doubt the disappearance of William Tyrrell, dubbed the " boy in the spiderman suit " has gripped public attention. It has been investigated under the scrutiny of the media pack and one nearby resident in Kendall has received intense police scrutiny.   It is the recording of conversations between Jubelin and that  " person of interest " which have been found illegal by a magistrate in a local court this week.

In the interest of personal privacy we have laws that require the presence of a court order before conversations may be recorded and the home of the man being investigated was bugged by just such a legal sanction.  Gary Jubelin claimed he recorded the conversation because he thought it necessary to protect his legalrights.  He feared the witness may harm himself or make claims against Jublelin in the future.

The court heard that there were no fingerprints, DNA or witness statements linking this person to William's disappearance and yet Jubelin seemed obsessed with pursuing that line of enquiry and this was approved by his superiors.He recorded two conversations, one in which he put his phone on loudspeaker so that another phone would fully catch the conversation.

Because of the years he investigated crime Gary Jubelin would be fully conversant with the laws that applied to listening devices.  His career has been terminated because he chose to break that law when the investigation reached a stage of great urgency.  Public pressure to find William was reaching an unbearable level.

That recorded conversation could never have been used in court because of its illegality.  The public must wonder how many conversations between them and the police are on tape in some lawman's possession to serve as a reminder of what was said in an interview.  The law does seem to value privacy above the expectation that justice should prevail.

In this instance, we are no closer to finding William and a gifted detective with thirty-two years experience has stepped down from crime investigation.  Perhaps a good time for a reexamination of those privacy laws in this Smartphone age !

Tuesday, 7 April 2020

Who Said What ?

The health spotlight is focused on one cruise ship as the culprit that released  Covid-19 into the Sydney community. Carnival's Ruby Princess was allowed to dock and disembark  2700 passengers on March 19 when health officials were assured that Covid-19 was not an issue on board.

Since then, more than six hundred have been tested and found to be positive to the contagion - and eleven have died. A police enquiry is underway to sort out the flurry of email messages and phone calls that resulted in a docking prohibition being lifted and passengers allowed ashore without entering into an isolation period.  These holidaymakers scattered back to their homes in other Australian states.

It is obvious that cruise ships are an incubator for diseases like Covid-19 when several thousand passengers and crew are closely contained together in the limited space of a big ship for a number of days. In the past, gastro infections have run their course in such situations and quickly found their way from one person to another.

The Ruby Princess remains at sea off the New South Wales coast and last week four sick crew were taken off and transferred to hospital, including one in a critical condition.  As many as two hundred other have suspected respiratory illnesses and plans are being made to dock the ship in Port Kembla.  It is unsure if the crew will be flown to their home countries or forced to remain on board until the disease runs its course.

Covid-19 has been a disaster for the cruise ship industry.  This fast growing trade profits from cramming several thousand passengers on a luxury liner, attended by a crew of over a thousand for a voyage that visits a number of romantic ports. When a disease outbreak  creates a break in that routine the costs quickly multiply.  This New South Wales police enquiry will determine if the shipping company or its officers aboard deliberately hid the truth about the Covid-19 outbreak to limit the financial loss.

The law of the sea still requires ships to fly a warning flag if plague is aboard.  This Covid-19 is a world event and in particular cruise ships are being refused permission to dock in many countries. Many Australians are stranded overseas and air services are rapidly decreasing to bring them home. Many may find themselves without financial support and indefinitely  forced to remain in a country with a language they do not understand.

If the Ruby Princess management people deliberately hid the fact that Covic-19 was on board to facilitate disembarking of passengers then they have committed a serious crime.  The passage of people in and out of this country has facilitated the outbreak here.  The police will carefully evaluate what was said - and by whom.  It is possible that charges may follow.

This Ruby Princess incident did not start the Covic-19 outbreak, but merely enhanced it.  This is a disease advancing on a world front and when it is over we will have both a ruined economy and a serious death toll.  With hindsight there will be many matters that could have been handled better. That ship disembarking incident would be one of them !

Monday, 6 April 2020

Return of the Trams !

A few days ago the Sydney light rail project came to completion with hardly any fuss or publicity.  The section connecting  Circular Quay and Randwick has been up and running for some time, but the branch off Anzac Parade that links the city to Kingsford missed out on the usual completion ceremonies because of the Covid-19 outbreak.

It is ironic that perhaps the most efficient system of moving great numbers of people within a city is now up and running at exactly the same time that those crowds are forced off the streets and prevented from any form of public assembly by a deadly virus.   Those sparkling new trams are running nearly empty.

Light rail was originally estimated to cost $2.9 billion to complete but the final figure came in at double that.  Once we start digging up city streets it becomes a journey into the unknown. What is down there from a past era has long disappeared from public records and has to be replaced with modern engineering.  That is both costly and time consuming.

A lot of businesses fronting onto this light rail network closed their doors because the work isolated them from customers. The courts will be cluttered with compensation cases for years and that mess will certainly give any company considering a bullet train link between Sydney and Melbourne cause to consider the implications.

A bullet train between the cities would need to deliver passengers from Flinders street station in Melbourne to Central in Sydney, and that would involve a new rail line through densely packed suburbs. The problems - and the cost - of establishing that would be unimaginable given the experience with light rail.

That bullet train idea would compete with passenger airlines and that depends on what air air services survive this Covid-19 outbreak. There is the possibility that many airlines may not survive and we may return to the previous regime of state control of both services and prices.  That would certainly make the prospect of a high speed city to city rail link feasible.

Experience overseas with high speed rail makes it clear that rail needs to deliver from city centre to city centre. When the time taken getting to airports is taken into consideration, high speed rail becomes very competitive with the airlines.

Perhaps the time is approaching when an elevated rail crossing of the suburbs to the city centre becomes a possibility.  It would avoid the congestion of digging under city streets and competition with existing road and rail services - and the costs involved !

Sunday, 5 April 2020

Saving Air Services !

Eventually this Coronavirus emergency will be over and we will return to what is left of the Australian economy.  After a long period of forced isolation it is likely that most people will be keen to resume their former lifestyle of holidays, both in the delights this country offers and in the rest of the world.  That depends on what is left of the existing airline industry.

We have only to look back a few decades to remember when airlines in Australia were strictly controlled to prevent outside competition. Qantas was the national airline for overseas travel and was prevented from carrying passengers between Australian cities.  That was the preserve of the Ansett or TAA duopoly and their airfares were uniformly expensive.  Their flight times were identical and more suited to the running of the airline than for the convenience of the passengers.

That was the era when most Australians travelling to Europe endured six weeks on a ship because overseas air flights were simply too expensive for holiday budgets.  The arrival of the Boeing 707 aircraft with high seating capacity changed that and airlines became the play thing of high end entrepreneurs.  The days of cheap world travel had arrived.

Unfortunately, the airline industry involves high finance.  Jet liners come with a multi million dollar price tag and many airlines run at a loss, subsidized by state funds because they are seen as a national asset.  There is every expectation that during this Coronavirus austerity campaign some long standing airline names may disappear from the skies and it would be a disaster if when the dust settles we have Qantas exercising an airline monopoly in this country.

Australia is a big continent with a small population by world standards. Eventually we may see Sydney and Melbourne connected by a high speed bullet train, but it is unlikely that will connect other state capitals during the remains of this century.  The economic s just don't stand up given the distances involved and the present passenger volumes.  It is essential that travel within and without Australia remain in competition between a number of different air services.

The shutdown of air services to help isolate the spread of this virus is putting extraordinary financial pressure on both Qantas and Virgin and both are looking to the Federal government for subsidies to survive. We are warned that relief measures already in play will expand the deficit by many billions of dollars but without a competitive airline industry the Australian way of life will be changed forever.

Perhaps the biggest change to impact Australian society when the virus impact fades into obscurity will be the price and availability of travel.  That will wither and die unless enough airlines survive to maintain competition  !

Saturday, 4 April 2020

Sanctuary !

There is a lesson to be learned from the massive bushfire summer we have just experienced. Homes and lives were lost when a fire season went on for weeks despite the ranks of firefighters being augmented by members of the defence forces.  For individual home owners the choice was often a decision of whether to stay and defend the property or get out while the way was clear and shelter in  a designated safety zone.

Many such safety zones fell victim to the ferocity of this fire and there were instances where fire victims were forced to wade into the sea or the waters of a lake to escape the flames. It was a harrowing experience and we are warned that the fire season will be longer each year and with increased intensity because of global warming caused by the increase of carbon dioxide in the air.

After the end of the second world war the use of the atomic bomb to force a Japanese surrender brought fear of its use in future wars. Many safety conscious citizens invested in an underground shelter stocked with survival supplies.  Fortunately, the wide development of nuclear weapons across the political divide has saved us from a nuclear confrontation and those remaining shelters are now  rare.  Perhaps they should again feature in the plans of those rebuilding after their homes were lost in last summers inferno.

Fire in Australia is now an annual threat.  In what is known as the " Tornado belt " across inland America it is common for residents to have an underground shelter to which the family can retreat when a Tornado threatens.  A similar underground shelter with a filter to remove smoke from breathing air would be a welcome safety measure in coming fire seasons and it could be economically included in the plans for homes to be  replaced after last seasons fires.

The inescapable fact delivered last summer was that homes in many country towns and those in the suburbs surrounding cities are vulnerable to cinder attacks which can advance miles ahead of the actual fire front. Citizens who have the home prepared to repel fire can usually save the building if they remain to extinguish embers, but that is unsafe if the fire gathers unexpected strength and leaves them with mo way of escape.

The idea of an underground safety area on the property is now a feasible option for property owners. It can be quickly and cheaply constructed with modern earth moving machinery and should become an integral part of modern living.  If nothing else, it removes that agonising decision of whether to flee or stay when the fire season erupts.

That personal safety aspect is important to those who live in a fire zone.

Friday, 3 April 2020

Home Schooling Assistance !

In Australia we still have many homes that lack a computer or have access to the internet, but there would be few homes that do not have television, and that seems to be the logical starting point to assist parents now that home schooling has replaced classrooms because of the virus threat.

It is obvious that many families are ill placed to deliver a teachers role when it comes to educating their kids because of either the education level they obtained in their youth or the difficulty in learning a new language when they arrived in Australia.  We do not know how long this state of emergency will last, but it certainly has the capacity to retard the educational level some kids were attaining in the school system.

It looks like the ABC is the national broadcaster with the coverage to fill that gap and already plans are under way to work with state and territory educational authorities to create teacher-led  mini lessons which will be broadcast on the ABC educational portal and ME channel to support student learning at home.

This will commence from April 27 and take the form of educational programming between 10 am and 3 pm,  It is envisaged that this will be directed at primary students in the mornings and switch to secondary students in the afternoon. It will cover a range of subjects and it is expected that it will be of great help for parents struggling to provide an agenda.

What is glaringly obvious is the lack of a common educational standard in Australia.  The states and Territories can't even agree on holiday timing, let alone a curriculum.  Everything is different in each state and that even includes the books set for reading on which examinations will be based.  As a result, the ABC will either have to create a separate educational programme for each state or put together a common programme which will have gaps caused by these differences.

Reaching uniformity has been a failed goal because of state bickering and each state claiming to attain the highest educational standard.  This present crisis simply highlights that shortcoming and it is hoped will cause the Commonwealth to move education out of state hands to create uniformity. The present educational system harks back to an earlier age when there was little movement between the states.  We are now a very mobile nation and education needs to adapt to that mobility.

This unexpected virus has created an opportunity to reform the educational system and we are fortunate in having both the ABC and SBS as national broadcasters who can reach almost every home in Australia.   That will relieve the load from the shoulders of many parents who are not suited to performing both the duties of parent and schoolteacher.


Thursday, 2 April 2020

An Untimely Price Increase

Both the state and the Federal government are shelling out to provide  money assistance to the people forced out of work by the Coronavirus crisis and billions more are being spent to ensure that the employers forced to close their doors will reopen when it is finally over.  This Pandemic threatens to deliver a swathe of death around the world and there is the expectation that the hardship imposed on both commercial interests and individuals will be accepted with good grace in the interest of saving lives.

It is with astonishment that most people learn that the company imposing tolls on Sydney's urban roads is implementing a toll increase which came into effect yesterday.  Transurban, which owns all four toll roads is refusing to budge on its pricing for the Cross City tunnel, Eastern Distributor, M2 and Lance Cove tunnel.

Tolls for cars using the M2 rose by fifty percent in the six years to 2019 to $7.62 for those driving the full length. That increased to $7.83 yesterday.  The Eastern Distributor has increased from $7.61 for cars and  $15.22 for trucks to $7.92 and $ 15.84 respectively.  The Harbour bridge and the Harbour tunnel have not increased  since 2009.

The toll operator is entitled to these price increases as part of its contractual arrangement with the state government, but in nonconformity with the many others who have held back price increases to aid this world crisis the new rates were applied regardless of the hardship they will cause.  The toll operator claims that work is still progressing during the lockdown on the North Connex and the West Connex and this seems to disobey the lockdown order.

With so many people out of work the traffic stream each day is much lighter, and so is the revenue from the toll, but the operator seems intent on gouging out every last cent it can legally apply.  The only concession to the Coronavirus seems to be cessation of debt recovery during the crisis.  People behind in their toll repayments may get support through Linkt Assist.

The implementation of many laws have been relaxed to give relief during this time when many people are facing personal hardship.  It is quite possible that this hard hearted attitude applied to a price increase may eventually come back to haunt this company.  The business world is a complex jungle and sometimes companies need a favour from the government, and governments have a long memory.

Wednesday, 1 April 2020

Panic in Asia !

Different countries - different reactions to the Covic-19 virus.  Human Rights watch reports that authoritarian regimes in Asia are using it as cover to tighten their grip on what citizens can say or do in public.

The rulers of Cambodia, Thailand, the Philippines and Myanmar are taking actions against their critics.  They are taking advantage of the moment  to go after people  in a targeted manner.  It is not sweeping crackdowns or mass arrests.  That's because it would lead to a backlash that would undermine their position.

What they are trying to do is make examples of some people to scare everybody into submission. People who have expressed  concern about the virus' impact have been arrested for spreading fake news online and this usually includes any form of official opposition party.  Usually this runs in tandem with an official denial that the virus poses any sort of threat to that nation's population.

These are the very countries that have the greatest reason to fear the virus.  A great mass of very poor people do not have the luxury of staying home and not going to work because what they earn dictates what they eat.  They do not have well stocked pantries to see them through a crisis.  In most cases the money they earn and the food that buys are consumed in the time span between morning light and the going down of the sun.  Even a day off work delivers hunger.

As a consequence, these  authoritarian regimes are doing little to halt the spread of the virus. The people live and work in close proximity to one another and the most likely outcome of a heavy death toll will be migration.  Unfortunately,  in this part of the world the target country to which migrants tend to head is Australia with its advanced life style.

The Australian response to this virus crisis has been a virtual shutdown of society and industry.  The measures taken are unprecedented and the public purse will take a massive hit but there is the expectation that we will weather the crisis well.  The big danger is that our near neighbours may not be able to prevent a huge death toll and the panic that causes.  This could result in refugee boats arriving unannounced on our shores and add to the refugee problem.

The aftermath of Covic-19 may go on long after the health concern finally subsides  !