An Unwise Decision !

This week, for the first time since 1941 the government holding office in Australia suffered a defeat in the House of Representatives when Labor, the Greens and the crossbench combined to deliver a  75 to 74 rejection of government legislation.

We are heading to a Federal election, scheduled for May and it seems likely this defeat will increase pressure to bring that election forward and immediately dissolve parliament.  That will probably be successfully resisted but the outcome of this parliamentary defeat probably now hinges on how that event is interpreted in the refugee camps in Indonesia.

The price paid for stopping refugee boats crossing to Australia was a  promise that after a certain date no such people would ever gain permanent settlement in this country, and this was backed by the creation of what became internment camps on offshore islands.  Entire families were contained behind barbed wire, waiting in the hope that they might be granted entry to a third country.  Now some have been settled in America but many remain locked away indefinitely and this has become a humanitarian issue.

The remainder in the offshore camps are men and many have been interned for years. One of the issues in contention is the reluctance of health authorities to gain approval for their transfer to Australia when medical treatment becomes urgent.   The medical facilities in these camps is regarded as " basic " and lives are at risk unless access is granted to the standard of care only available in mainland Australian cities.

The rejected legislation was based on moving the decisive power to grant removal to an Australian hospital for treatment from the authorities to a panel of two doctors.  Such a decision - made on medical grounds - would probably ensure that most would gain a favourable decision, and once in Australia they could appeal their return to the islands when treatment ends.

While the defeat leaves the government with the over-riding power to decide transfers there will be some in the refugee camps in Indonesia who see this as the end of the " stop the boats " policy.  The people smugglers may declare they are again open for business and start packing people on boats for that perilous sea crossing.

Labor, the Greens and the crossbench claim this is a humanitarian decision and the plight of the refugees contained in island camps does have resonance in Australia, but all that could change dramatically if a boat full of refugees makes an appearance in our waters.  That could easily backfire and raise the immigration issue to the decisive factor in the coming Federal election.

Public favour is fickle.  A resurgence of boat people trying to force their way into Australia would harden attitudes and back the policy that clearly stopped the boats.  Perhaps the outcome of this test of parliamentary strength will be decided offshore.  The final decision may depend on the people smugglers ability to persuade refugees to pay money and climb aboard unseaworthy boats.

This may be the starters gun to the next episode of the defence of our shoreline.