That " One China " Question !

The future of the island of Taiwan rests entirely in the hands of the Communist party rulers of China in Beijing.  If and when China decides to unify Taiwan with the mainland it would bring about a confrontation between the armed forces of China and America which many people believe could be the start of the third world war.

When the second world war ended in 1945 China suffered a civil war between Mao's followers and nationalist forces led by Chiang Kai-Shek.   That war ended with the nationalists defeat and they moved to the island of Formosa, offshore.  Formosa was renamed Taiwan and American opposition to Communism resulted in Taiwan receiving American military protection.  That was sufficient to deter any thought of an invasion by the People's Liberation Army.

Over the years there have been numerous confrontations.   America has sent warships through the Taiwan strait to deliver warnings and China's growing commercial power has caused many nations to break relations with Taiwan as a requirement for trade with the vast Chinese mainland.  Taiwan has a population of just twenty-three million people, compared with over a billion in mainland China.

When Hong Kong was handed back by the British the concept of a " One country - two systems " regime seemed to present a role model for the eventual reunification of the " two Chinas ".  It has since become very clear that Hong Kong has not gained the degree of self rule that this system envisaged.

Now Chinese supreme leader Xi Jin-ping has signalled that this seventy year dispute must end with China and Taiwan being united into one nation. He has made it clear that if this is not achieved by negotiation, then " force will be necessary ".   The people of Taiwan have elected a president who shares their desire for independence and Taiwan is heavily armed with its own defence system.  It is now facing a China which is rapidly expanding its military to a similar capacity to the American forces.

Back in 1949 when Chiang Kai-Shek established a nationalist regime on Taiwan it was recognised as independent by most of the rest of the world.  As mainland China rose in commercial power it required other nations to choose between the two regimes and now only a handful maintain diplomatic recognition with Taiwan.  China's claim that Taiwan is simply a renegade state that requires unification seems to be acceptable by most of the rest of the world.

Commercially, the world can not do without the trading power of mainland China and self interest has changed the equation.  Taiwan and the matter of illegal Chinese island fortifications in the South China sea are in close proximity to one another and eventually some sort of military confrontation between the two powers seems inevitable.

That will not happen until Xi Jin-ping decides that the outcome will be in Chinas's favour.  If it comes to a choice between sacrificing Taiwan's independence or going to war it is not hard to determine the outcome.