The Dreaded " El Nino " !

On Friday we sweated when the temperature reached 34 degrees on our coastal fringe and the heat continued overnight, making a comfortable sleep for many impossible.  The weather statisticians warn that this was the earliest arrival of summer for more than two decades and is probably a prediction  that Australia is on the verge of an " El Nino " event.

Accurately defining an El Nino is difficult, but generally the waters of the equatorial central Pacific ocean become warmer than usual and this transfers to the atmosphere above.  As a consequence, the rain patterns tend to shift to the east and away from the vast Australian mainland, bringing drier and warmer conditions to this continent - and that can last for a very long time.

If we are to get an El Nino it has picked very bad timing.   Our farming areas have experienced a record drought and recent rain has brought some relief, but that drought is not broken.   Without follow up rain that green fringe will fade and most farmers finance is in parlous state because they have been forced to buy feed to keep the base stock of their herds alive.  An extension of the drought would force many to walk off the land.

One of the prime reasons tourists visit Australia is our Great Barrier Reef, and it is in dire trouble.  Hotter summers have caused the coral to bleach and it is under attack from Crown of thorns starfish. Warmer coastal waters have caused many semi tropical native fish to migrate south - to cooler waters and we can only hope that more heat resistant coral will eventually replace what has been lost.  It is inevitable that the reef will lose its power of attraction, at least in the short term.

Last summer saw air conditioners become the hottest item in the discount stores and that looks certain to be maintained this year.  Running an air conditioner uses electricity and it seems certain that the electricity peak will rise further on the hottest days - and there is a doubt whether our ageing electricity generators can meet demand.  Power generation is locked in political disharmony and shows no sign of reaching consensus in the short term.   If it continues, blackouts and other forms of load shedding are inevitable.

Perhaps the greatest damage will be done to our vast inland river systems.   They have been depleted by excess irrigation use along their lengths and both regulation and buy back of water rights have been used to increase the flow to the southern states.  Commercial interests vital to both our food supply and to exports will struggle to maintain production with what is fast becoming a regime of water rationing.  Continuing drought will impose disaster on our efforts to create a healthy inland river system.

It is unlikely that the taps will run dry in our coastal fringe.   The huge desalination plant that has been in mothballs for years is again up and running and turning sea water into drinking water, but water restrictions are a certainty.   There are plans to raise the water storage of Warragamba dam by increasing the wall height, but that will deliver only when the rains return.

Here we are on the cusp of summer - and there seems every chance that an El Nino is gathering on a far horizon.   The only blessing is that if it eventuates it will force the implementation of many action plans that have remained in indecision for too long.