Wednesday, 17 October 2018

A Chill in the European Air !

At the end of the second world war Germany was a ruined landscape.  Its cities had been bombed and burned to rubble and half the country was occupied by the invading Russian Communists.  Defeat was a bitter reality and it had to face world revulsion when the media toured the concentration camps and revealed the horror of the Holocaust.

The speed of recovery was surprising.  The Germans are an industrious and innovative people and their union movement avoided unreasonable demands and costly strikes.  Political stability and a solid work ethic created an economy which was dominant in Europe and after a succession of strong leaders Angela Merkel was elected as its Chancellor.

For over a decade Merkel could do no wrong. Hers was the voice of reason and Germany was the dominant country within the European Union.  It seemed that the wisdom of Jacques Delors, the Frenchman who contended that the spectre of war will not be banished until the European nation states are safely contained in an economic and political fraternity which is mutually beneficial.  That idea spawned what was initially called the " common market ".

The Angela Merkel era of invincibility began to crack when war in the Middle East and poverty in Africa unleashed wave after wave of refugees flooding into Europe, seeking a better life.   Merkel opened Germany's door, and unleashed a backlash that has seen her support crumble.  Ominously, a political party with roots to the Nationalist Socialist party that gave power to Adolph Hitler now holds seats in the German parliament and Merkel has just suffered a massive drop in support in the Bavarian state election.

The cohesion of the European Union is starting to crumble.   Britain will leave the union in March, next year and one of the main causes is to regain control of its borders.  Several other countries are refusing to take part in refugee absorption and an illiberal wave of government outlook is threatening to tear the EU  apart.   Many European leaders regard those clamouring for entry at their borders as " asylum tourism ".

Twice last century Germany took the world to war with the contention that they were the " master race " that was destined to rule the world.  After its defeat in the second world was Germany was the most contrite and put in place laws that made it a criminal offence to dispute the tragedy of the Holocaust.  Now that seventy-three years have passed those with a direct memory of the war are few and once again the principles of National Socialism may gain credit in young minds if the economy falters.

The impetus from some in the EU is for " ever closer " union with the EU eventually becoming the United States of Europe.   Others chafe under the unending rule consolidation issuing from Brussels, but clearly the bone of contention roiling the EU is the absorption of refugees and their impact on both the economy and the lifestyle of the host countries.

Most of this warfare in sponsored by political rivalry between the big power blocks of east and west. These are proxy wars and should a consensus be reached they could end.  A negotiated end to war in the Middle East would cease the exodus and with it most of the religious disruptions that are war related.  If we are to have a peaceful planet, reconciliation between the warring great nations is an urgent necessity.

That would require give and take from both sides at the conference table.  Sadly, the interest in achieving a peaceful outcome is too deeply enmeshed in politics.

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