A Threat ? Or a Promise ?

During that week when shenanigans in Canberra were removing a prime minister and appointing another we were blissfully free of people smugglers dumping unwanted migrants on our shores.  It was a proud boast by the government that they had " Stopped the boats " and it is a recognisable fact that our coast has been free of such arrivals for more than 1400 days.

Then came the shattering news that an undetected fishing boat had penetrated our coastline and run aground in the shallows at the Daintree.  An unknown number of people abandoned this boat and swam ashore, and promptly disappeared into the crocodile infested bush north of Cairns.  That record of over four years freedom from new arrivals has been broken.

A widespread search is under way and arrests have been made, but the political instability so evidently present in Canberra was on the news screens of Asia and it was being very carefully evaluated by both the people smugglers and the teeming hordes existing in squalid refugee camps waiting for our borders to open.

It seems that some interpreted the political instability in Australia in different ways.  A leadership change suggested a change of policy might be possible and it seems that was sufficient for one refugee boat to take a chance and try their luck.  It is thought that this boat may have been from Vietnam but those waiting to come to Australia are widely spread in Asia.

This latest incursion will probably be quickly contained unless the refugees have the misfortune to get eaten by crocodiles and they will probably join the people in an internment camp in Nauru. It is the promise that no unauthorised arrivals on our shores will ever be allowed to settle in Australia that has stopped people willingly paying smugglers to lands them here.   The people smugglers are eager and willing to resume, once their customers are convinced that the risk is worth it.

We have seen what can happen in Europe when refugees from those Middle East wars and economic refugees from Africa converge in an unstoppable flow crossing the Mediterranean sea to Greece and Italy.   Packed like sardines in rubber boats they pay their money and many drown when the boats capsize or run out of fuel and founder.  Many countries have closed their borders and a vast residue of rejected people exist in squalid refugee camps with their future undetermined.

Holding the line against refugee boats arriving on our shores has been a combination of threat and diplomacy with neighbouring countries and a great deal of very questionable naval activity that have turned back boats encountered on the high seas.   It is a delicate balance that relies on a mix of goodwill and bluff.

Right now Asia is watching to see what sort of politics are evolving in Australia and how they evaluate events here is how they will interpret the message of the people smugglers.  This boat arrival in the Daintree has come at a critical time.   The comments of the various political factions could be instrumental in delivering a message.  If that is the wrong message we could see a future where migrant intake is never again entirely in our own control.