The End of " Trust " !

Donald Trump's decision to walk away from the deal with Iran that stopped its development of nuclear weapons was an international agreement that was co-signed by not only America but Britain, France, Germany and the European Union.  It throws a big question mark over the coming negotiations with North Korea for the dismantling of their existing nuclear arsenal.

The United Nations Atomic Energy people have the task of monitoring Iran's compliance and they have found no fault. Iran has stuck to its end of the bargain, but this American decision throws doubt on the integrity of all future multi party agreements.   Are they good for only as long as the people who sign on the dotted line remain in office ?

Woodrow Wilson's vision of a world ruled by that old League of Nations was a splendid vision that failed to prevent the second world war and its successor, the United Nations appears to be a similar fangless beast.  The Blue Helmets engage in national disasters and minor conflicts, but the power of veto in the Security Council makes it useless where major issues are involved.

Kim Jong-un is an absolute dictator who has managed to amass nuclear weapons and a delivery system that threatens most of the world.  His country has a shame full past of reneging on agreements.  This unusual Communist dynasty has made war on its neighbour and earned a living by counterfeiting the currency of other nations and running illicit drugs.  If this disarmament offer is genuine it will require a high degree of trust on all sides to reach settlement.

Unfortunately, Donald Trump's decision to walk away from that agreement with Iran is not the only instance of broken trust in what seemed guaranteed pledges of safety.   When the Soviet Union imploded it had a  nuclear arsenal pointed at the west and some of the missiles were sited in Ukraine. The world was expecting Russia to become a normal country integrating trade with the west and Ukraine hoped to join the EU.   It was fearful of the Russian oppression that had held it in an embrace since the Communist revolution and agreed to give up its nuclear weapons for dismantling and destruction only when these same nations that signed off on the Iran deal guaranteed its safety in the event of Russian aggression.

When Vladimir Putin's Russia annexed Crimea and a covert invasion penetrated the Donbas region those same signatories claimed it was not an invasion but a civil war, completely ignoring the Russian special forces with insignias removed from their clothing deploying Russian weapons  in the conflict, including that BUK missile battery that shot down a Malaysian airlines jet and killed its passengers and crew.   Ukraine now lives with a partial Russian occupation and those guarantees have proven worthless.

The perfidy of the great powers has a scattered resonance in the history books.  During the first world war the British induced the Arabs to revolt against the Ottoman empire with the promise of an Arab state in the Middle East after the war.   The moment the armistice came into effect the British and French empires carved the Middle East map into interest zones that took no interest in tribal identities, religion or the mixing of disparate people under unfamiliar rule.   Much of the present warfare in the area has its roots in those decisions.

Perhaps the outcome of this decision will be Iran entering a new arms race to gain a nuclear deterrent, and North Korea deciding that guarantees are not sufficient to convince it to renounce the nuclear weapons it already has.  On both counts, the world will be the loser !