Holding Our Breath !

The sudden news that North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un has agreed to a face to face meeting with US President Donald Trump could be the breakthrough that will permanently avoid a nuclear exchange between those two countries - or it could enhance the danger if Kim Jong-un fails to gain the objectives he hopes for.

It seems perfectly clear that this initiative has come from the North Korean side and was a logical followup of the hermit kingdoms charm offensive when it agreed to take part in South Korea's Olympic winter games.  It would be reasonable to conclude that this was considered necessary because the sanctions imposed on North Korea are choking the life out of its economy.  China is now restricting the fuel flow and this is the one component that will bring the North Korean economy to a halt.

It all depends on what sort of carrot Kim Jong-un offers. His main objective is the lifting of sanctions and to gain that he will need to make concessions with his nuclear arsenal.  It is unlikely that he will agree to give up either rockets or nuclear war heads, but further development and testing may be on the table.  The problem would be verification.  North Korea has a history of reneging on past agreements and any agreement will certainly need the presence of independent monitors.

The North Korean objective may be ratification of its presence as a nuclear power - on equal terms with India and Pakistan. Both those countries gained nuclear status without the blessing of the UN Security Council and both are now sanction free, but neither is threatening other countries with their weapons. North Koreas is specifically threatening the cities of the United States and any solution reached will need ratification by world countries.  Russia and China may make difficulties because tension between America and North Korea is to their advantage.

Many people shudder at the prospect of Donald Trump facing across the table with Kim Jong-un on the Korean truce line.  Often the outcome itself is negotiated by aids and the leaders confrontation is merely a stage managed event..   Trump completely ignores his advisers and military commanders and follows no discernible policy directions.  Policy seems to consist of what thought occurs to him at that moment and this is usually promulgated by way of a " Tweet ".  This meeting could easily dissolve into a slanging match.

This is an event scheduled for May and in normal circumstances aids from both sides would prepare the way with consultations to set an agenda and gain agreements that might help decide the outcome. With two such irascible leaders that is an unlikely scenario.

The danger is that sanctions are probably making the survival of North Korea suspect and this has driven Kim Jong-un to seek this meeting against his will.  In the past, his country has negotiated terms to its advantage and then reneged on the obligations imposed.  If Kim Jong-un is prepared to negotiate his nuclear arsenal in good faith this could be an amazing break through.  If the meeting ends badly, a desperate North Korea on the verge of collapse will be a very dangerous animal in an unstable world.
The Chess pieces moved across this board are nuclear missiles !