No wonder the National Broadband network is desperate to get the work finished and have subscribers connected before 5G becomes a reality. Many billions of public money has been invested in the NBN and there seems to be a good chance that when 5G arrives it will make the NBN obsolete.
The NBN was more political than practical and it has certainly not lived up to the promises made when it was envisaged. It is miles behind schedule and vastly over budget and the Internet speeds promised have not eventuated. Many subscribers are unhappy with the results.
It looks like the NBN rollout will be completed by 2020 and that is when there is the expectation that 5G will arrive on the Australian scene. Telstra, Optus, Vodafone and probably TPG will have tests running in 2019 and there is an expectation that 5G may be a reality in 2020.
5G is expected to be light years ahead of the present standard of mobile phones and it meshes well will the increasing popularity of hand held devices gaining the ascendency. The crystal ball gazers seem to think that the NBN may end up being the choice of the business community for heavy transmission traffic, leaving the bulk of personal communications in the hands of the 5G network.
The technical experts warn that the present crop of mobile phones will not be compatible when the 5G network arrives and kitting out to receive its benefits will be costly. The industry is tight lipped on what accessing this new technology may cost but it is likely that no individual provider will gain an advantage by being the first to provide the new service. These devices will be made by Apple and Samsung and consequently 5G provision will probably be simultaneous.
There seems little doubt that the loser will be the Australian taxpayer. The NBN was originally expected to return a profit dividend but that now seems unlikely. Connections were originally directly to ever home and business, but as a matter of economics that has been reduced to a " to the node " model where the final connection is by way of the old copper wire that provides the link to the landline phone. That weakness can not accommodate the high speeds desired.
Industry insiders scoff at predictions that the NBN will become a white elephant. They claim that mobile can never hope to compete with fixed broadband on a cost basis and that our ever expanding need for data and faster speeds will push both systems to the limit. They predict that the " internet of things " will bring connection demand well beyond our present imagination.
A decade or so ago even a basic, clunky old mobile phone was a novelty. Today, those " public telephone " boxes on public streets have almost vanished. It is a rare pedestrian who does not have a mobile phone in their hand - or in their pocket. The mail delivery is fast going the same way as the Pony Express.
It looks like 5G is going to be what the sound barrier was to aircraft design. Communication is going to take us - faster and further - and whatever it costs will be worth it !
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