During the long years of the Cold War Australia was safely cocooned away "Down Under ", far from the flash points where America and the Soviet Union butted heads. The fact that both sides realised the folly of a nuclear exchange ensured that didn't happen - although once or twice nervous fingers hovered above the button.
Today's danger zone is fast emerging as the South China sea. It has always been regarded as International waters used by world shipping and it is recognised as a "choke point " where a hostile power could disrupt world trade. A significant amount of the exchange of world
goods passes through this waterway.
China makes claim to the entire South China sea on the basis of an ancient map which it claims gives it sovereignty. This is not recognised by other countries surrounding this stretch of water and at issue is the ownership of various rocks and shoals, most of which are completely submerged at high tide. Ownership confers the right to mining of the seabed for minerals and there is a high chance that this may yield oil or gas finds.
The Chinese have undertaken a plan of occupation by stealth. They have ignored a finding by an International court that rejected their claim and have excavated the seabed to extend a permanent land mass around these rocks and shoals and to create habitable islands. These extensions are now capable of supporting both airstrips and harbours.
China has claimed the sky above the South China sea as its air zone and demands International flights check in with China air control. This is studiously ignored by most countries but Chinese jet fighters regularly approach passing air traffic to support their claim.
In recent weeks this Chinese claim of sovereignty has notched higher. Despite a promise to keep these newly acquired islets free of military arms the Chinese have announced that they have installed both defensive and offensive weaponry. China is fast approaching the stage where it will have the military muscle in place to control passage through the South China sea.
The American navy sends its warships through the South China sea on a regular basis to underscore its role as an International waterway and this is leading to "incidents " which are becoming more dangerous. An American undersea drone used to map the seabed was seized by a Chinese naval ship and is currently in dispute between the two nations.
It is quite possible that this was a deliberate provocation by the Chinese to test the American reaction during the change in the American presidency. At outgoing president would be unlikely to undertake newly decisive action just days away from his successor taking office.
That is exactly where a miscalculation may cause the situation to spin out of control. To the entire world, the president elect is an enigma. He is putting together his administration and his choice of those who will occupy positions of power fall outside the regular choices of the establishment. How the incoming administration would react in a crisis - is completely unknown.
Also completely unknown is the intentions of the Chinese leadership when it comes to the South China sea. Is China seeking world territorial denomination in addition to dominance in world trade ? Xi Jin Ping seems to be whipping up a tide of "nationalism " which could be used to counter unrest if the curse of unemployment beset his nation. China is unsteadily balanced between affluent cities and a rural countryside little changed from a long past century.The Communist government are control freaks and they run a police state to keep their citizens in order.
The danger area will be after January 20, when the powers of the American military are under President Trumps direct control. That is where a miscalculation by either side can quickly slip past the point of no return. A clash of egos may result in a real shooting war !
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