The world as we knew it ceased to exist yesterday when against all odds Donald Trump won the United States presidency. The vast majority of knowledgeable pundits tipped Hillary Clinton to win office but an unprecedented number of usually apathetic voters turned out to record their vote and they chose the man who promised to take America back to the halcyon days of the twentieth century.
The seeds of political revolution have been flourishing in most other parts of the world. The old political parties have lost ground and populist rhetoric is in the ascendancy. America has long professed to lead the western world. Trump's rise to power will invigorate the forces rising against " Do Nothing " forms of government holding office in other countries.
Strangely, this revolution - and it was a revolt against the inertia that has plagued America since a president from one political party has governed with both houses of parliament having a majority from a different political party. That situation produced - stalemate ! The deficit continues to grow and the government has simply ceased to function.
The majority of American voters chose to take a chance and elect Trump. On the night, his acceptance speech was conciliatory. Gone were the bombast and threats and there seems a chance that a more moderate Trump may emerge now that the politicking is over.
The world will hold its breath and wait for his policies to emerge. There is a vacancy on the High Court and it seems likely that a Trump nominee will get that job because the Republicans have a majority in both houses. The log jam has been cleared away - and if Trump appoints a conservative Roe versus Wade may be swept away. America may stifle abortion rights.
This Trump presidency will cause other world leaders to review their defence situations. America is the leading force in NATO and it has individual defence agreements with many other countries - including Australia. On the stump, Trump promised change. He hinted that America might not automatically continue to provide a defence shield and if correct this could lead to a new nuclear arms race. Both Japan and South Korea could be expected to seek their own form of nuclear protection.
Trump campaigned with the slogan "Make America Great Again " and he promised to restore manufacturing jobs which have escaped offshore to low wage Asian countries and across the border to Mexico because of the NAFTA agreement. The only way that could be achieved would be with the imposition of tariffs - and that would stand world trade on its head ! If Trump were to withdraw America from International trade treaties and the bonus of Globalization there is a high chance that could usher in a world recession.
The new president garnered support with a whole lot of promises that appealed to a red neck supporter element, and now he has a tiger by the tail when it comes to implementation. There is the matter of a wall along the Rio Grande to seal off migrants from Mexico and the matter of arresting and deporting literally millions of undocumented people who provide the labour force that American workers shun. In many cases, the undocumented parents have children who were born in the United States and have automatic citizenship.
Yesterday, Trumps success at the polls delivered a shock factor. He will not take office until January and the process of sorting campaign rhetoric from sanity will take place between the president elect and the grandees of the Republican party. It is quite possible that some parts of Trump policy may have the same degree of open hostility vote in both houses as Hillary Clinton would expect had she won the presidency.
The world needs to take a deep breath - and wait until the real Donald Trump emerges from behind the campaign mask. He may be plain "barking mad " as some have predicted - or usher in more moderate solutions that have escaped his predecessors.
Whatever the outcome, the world will have to learn to live with it !
No comments:
Post a Comment