Modern Turkey - at Risk !

When Turkey suffered defeat in the first world war it ended the Ottoman Empire and Kemal Attaturk opened this Islamic country to the world.   He turned it into a secular democracy and for decades this was jealously guarded by the army.  Turkey became well known for military coups any time the governing body strayed from Attaturk's  strict separation of religion and state.

Turkey is a member of NATO and it has long cherished the hope of joining the EU.  Other EU members are hesitant and fear opening Europe's borders to this huge Muslim population. When civil war ravaged Syria and Iraq was invaded Turkey became the conduit for refugee movement and its bargaining power increased.   Unfortunately, the direction in which Turkey was heading became something of a mystery.

This enigma was a man named Recep Tayyip  Erdogan who emerged as a charismatic leader.  Initially he seemed a moderate but as he gained power he began to embrace Islam more closely. He has aspirations to change the constitution to change the presidential role to an executive presidency and this has faced resistance in some quarters.  Erdogan has become increasingly authoritarian and has stripped away the rights of free speech and imposed his will on the courts and justice system. Early in his reign he forced the retirement of army leaders and seemed to have defanged any possibility of future coups.

Like a bolt from the blue some sections of the armed forces left the barracks and sized control this week.  They took over television stations and announced the new order and there were tanks in the streets and armed helicopters covering strong points.   It caught Erdogan unprepared, away on a holiday out of the country.  He managed to send a message exhorting his supporters to rush to the streets and oppose the coup - and thousands responded.  Some sections of the armed forces remained loyal to the government and this led to a fire fight in which hundreds were killed or wounded.  The police backed Erdogan - and the coup collapsed.

The world waits to see what type of regime emerges in Turkey.  Erdogan is entitled to assume emergency powers and may dispense with the need for a referendum to change the constitution. It is possible that this coup attempt may accelerate Turkey's embrace of Islamic law and turn away from its former secular stance.  It will certainly harden its attitude to the Kurdish minority engaged in a civil war for autonomy.  Then there is the issue of the huge number of refugees from Iraq and Syria stranded in camps on Turkish soil - and the complex repatriation arrangement that exists with the EU.

Australia has had a cordial relationship with Turkey since our involvement in the Gallipoli landing. Australians have been welcome guests at ANZAC commemoration ceremonies and the Turkish economy relies heavily on tourism.  If Turkey begins to embrace a rejection of its secular heritage the turmoil of the Middle East may bring all that to an end.

Western leaders will hold their breathe and wait to see what emerges.  Some may wish that the coup had been successful and that the army and its secular disposition had taken power.   Erdogan is not an easy person to read and his true aims are yet to emerge.  It seems certain that defeating the coup has put new power in his hands.    Once again religion has overturned the chess board of the Middle East.    The crystal ball is far from clear !