The waters of the South China Sea serve the commercial interests of Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam directly and are a vital shipping route for the rest of the world. The fact that China has laid claim to submerged reefs and rocks and is actively dredging to create artificial islands is a concern because it ignores the universally accepted law of the sea.
Now a military presence has been established with missiles and radar installations and it seems that Chinese hegemony has been further extended. The Chinese claim in the South China Sea rests on what they call the "Nine Dash Line " and the Natuna islands - owned by Indonesia - fall outside of that claim. Recently a Chinese fishing boat was detected illegally fishing inside the Indonesian twelve mile territorial zone and was arrested by an Indonesian customs vessel. As it was being towed to port, a Chinese naval vessel rammed the custom vessel and China is demanding the fishermen be released - because it claims these waters are "traditional Chinese fishing grounds ".
It seems to be a Chinese territorial claim that encompasses a world ocean and the airspace above it and that is not recognised by any world body, including the United Nations. That does raise the question of just what are China's intentions. Will China demand the right to grant or deny access to ships that travel through the South China Sea or aircraft that fly above it ? Will it back that right of ownership with military force ?
Xi Jinping has accumulated power to the point where his will is paramount in China. He is an enigma because he is playing his cards close to his chest. He recently gathered the commanders of the People's Liberation Army ( PLA ) and made it clear that their prime mission was not to guard China as a country, but to ensure that the Chinese Communist party remained it's government.
The Chinese economy is reaching a critical point in it's development. The manufacturing boom years lifted many out of poverty but now it is moving towards a consumer model and there has been a drift from the villages to the cities. Vast numbers of SOE's - State Owned Enterprises - are monoliths of a distant age, but to reform them will create a pool of unemployed. There is a danger of mass unrest and the Communist state will react with force to any challenge to it's control.
The history books relate what happened in the past when supreme power rested in the hands of one person. When Adolph Hitler became the dictator in Germany it was quite clear that his aim was world domination. Strong leaders in past centuries led their armies on a rampage across Europe, but the end of the second world war brought with it the nuclear age - and the sheer horror of the level of destruction that poses has since prevented world war three.
Lenin's dream of world revolution installing Communist regimes seems to have died with the implosion of the Soviet Union. Neither Communism in either China or Vietnam seem interested in exporting that style of government to other countries, but both put down dissent with a firm hand.
If Xi Jinping is not interested in world military domination, what is the purpose of seeking dominion over the South China Sea ?
China seems to be playing the waiting game over two major irritants. It claims Taiwan as a renegade province but has retreated from earlier threats to invade, and the "One country, two systems " deal with Hong Kong expires in 2147.
It now seems clear that whatever course China takes will originate from the mind of Xi Jinping. The danger will come if the transition from a manufacturing economy to a consumer model goes awry because the Communist upbringing lacks the knowledge skills to manage this western model of commerce.
It would be tempting to artificially create an external threat and invoke nationalism to keep a restless population under control - and an incident in the South China Sea could easily spin out of control and start a shooting war. Let us hope that Xi Jinping's mind is up to the task of successfully turning China into a prosperous trading nation !
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