Rule of Law !

When the second world war ended in 1945 the victors agreed that some form of International law was needed to settle disputes - and the United Nations was formed.  It became a forum for setting the rules by which the world is supposed to live and it has the power to raise a military force from it's members to enforce it's rulings - and did so when war erupted in Korea in 1950.

Unfortunately, the principle of equality between all member nations was disregarded when the then five nuclear armed nations were given the " veto " and allowed to refute examination on any matter that displeased them.  The world dissolved into power blocks and that " nuclear club " has extended to a greater number of nuclear armed countries - but the Veto remains restricted to that original five.

Now a new dispute has arisen that has the potential for the biggest clash of armed force since the Cuban missile crisis.  China has made claim to what amounts to atolls and rocks in the South China sea and has created new islands by excavating sand to build an above sea level permanent presence, despite claims of ownership by other surrounding nations.  What is alarming is that these new islands contain airstrips and ports which can easily and quickly be converted to military use.

In September, 2015 China's leader, Xi Jinping visited the White House and in a statement promised that his countrys claim to islands in the South China sea was peaceful - and there would be no military use, but China has refused to refer the ownership dispute to the United Nation's " Rule of the Sea " , which covers such matters.  China's claim is based on an old and vague map which extends Chinese sovereignty to the very shores of surrounding countries.

Now satellite coverage has disclosed that China has installed missile batteries and supporting radar on Woody island in the Paracels.  China claims that the air space above the South China sea requires commercial aircraft using it to check in with Chinese air traffic control and it would be unacceptable to world commerce is a similar demand was made on the passage of ships through this world trade route.

The missiles recorded on Woody island are probably the Chinese design known as HQ-9, and depending on the model would have either a range of 125 or 230 kilometres.  Now that Xi Jinping's promise has been broken, it is possible that similar batteries may be installed on other islands to create a coverage of the entire South China sea.   If so, one of the world's most important trade routes would become a " choke point " under Chinese military control.

There seems an eerie resemblance to the Cuban missile crisis when the US navy declared a Cuban blockade.  The US has already flown aircraft across the South China sea and ignored the Chinese demand that clearance be obtained and a naval ship has exercised the right of sea passage by steaming close to Chinese installations, but the presence of military weaponry certainly now ups the ante.

Just as the Russian military presence in Ukraine constitutes the de facto invasion of another country and the presence of the Islamic State caliphate in part of Syria and Iraq the creation of a rebel nation, this military presence in the South China sea is the imposition of the " Might is Right " aggression of conquest by stealth !

What remains to be seen is the longer term intentions of China's leaders and how they intend to live with the neighbours.   If they intend to impose trade restrictions - policed by their stranglehold on a vital trade route that will come into direct conflict with American naval power.

The world managed to exist with the long period of the cold war when America and Russia faced off and avoided nuclear conflict.  The difference today is that America and China have a mutual need of each other to avoid economic catastrophe.  Now it all depends on whether the economists or the military hawks dominate policy !