Probably the most dangerous confrontation on earth - apart from the Middle East - is the South China Sea. This stretch of water bounded by China, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines carries a vast volume of the world's sea traffic and it is ruled by the United Nations "Law of the Sea "!
That law confers certain rights to countries and these include a twelve mile territorial limit and a wider economic zone, but it also sets down an interpretation of what actually constitutes the boundary of a nation's sea property. Islands that are permanently above sea level are included, but rocks and shoals visible above high tide and otherwise submerged - are not !
That brings both the Paracel islands and the Spratleys into contention because many of them are jointly claimed by all of the surrounding countries. China is ignoring the Law of the Sea and has claimed all of the South China Sea as being under it's jurisdiction by way of what it calls "the Nine Dash Line " which is a mark on an ancient map of dubious origin.
Alarmingly, China has started dredging work on some of these rocks and shoals to reclaim sand and buildup an above water content, and some of the new "islands " are now forming protected anchorages for naval ships and airstrips to accommodate military aircraft. We seem to have an emerging arms race in the South China Sea.
This has resulted in an ideological clash between China and the United States. The United States insists that the South China Sea is an international waterway and while China has not moved to obstruct ship movements it is claiming that the passage of a United States warship within the twelve mile limit of some of these islands is both a "provocation "and a "threat " !
A similar situation exists in the East China Sea to the north. These contain rocky uninhabited islands that Japan and China both claim - called Senkaku by one country and Diaoyu by the other, and with an interest also claimed by South Korea. Clashes at sea have caused Japan to rescind it's pacifist constitution and America to plainly state that they form part of the defence agreement between America and Japan.
The logical solution to ending these disputes would be for the matter to be settled by the United Nations under the terms of the Law of the Sea, but America has not endorsed this law and China claims it does not extend to what it considers it's sovereign territory. It is a classical standoff between two military powers.
China has also claimed the air above the South China Sea. Commercial aircraft travelling in what is regarded as international air space are urged by China to check in with China air control, but this is ignored by most nations. The United States makes a point of flying it's military aircraft through claimed Chinese air space and is constantly verbally threatened, but so far there have been no armed confrontations.
This seems to be a danger point for the future. China is trying to establish a choke point on world shipping traffic which could be used to it's military advantage in a future confrontation. That old tenet that "possession " counts as nine points of the law comes into play. China is now occupying the islets that it claims and while it's navy is not as extensive and powerful as America's, parity is likely to be achieved some time in the future.
Once again the United Nations is exposed as a toothless tiger when it comes to settling disputes between the great powers. What eventuates in the South China Sea - and probably in the East China Sea in tandem - will be settled by the actions of those who head the two great powers involved.
We can only hope that commonsense prevails !
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