Stalemate !

The Russian decision to join the war in Syria has made it impossible to see an end to the fighting. Russian jets are beefing up the forces of Syrian dictator Assad and peeling back the advances of the freedom fighters who were closing in on his capital.  Vladimir Putin says they are there to counter IS but in reality most of their attacks are on the secular fighters the US supports and this is fast developing into a de facto struggle between Russia and America.

It is all tactics - and politics !   Russia is in a bind with the oil price at a historical low and it's economy in tatters because of economic sanctions over it's annexation of Crimea and virtual invasion of Ukraine.  Putin thinks that if he ups the ante and uses his military to become a player in the Middle East he could tip over the political chess board and force America to lift those crippling sanctions.

That's a very dangerous game.   Both sides now have air strikes over shared territory and the chance of a " mistake " is very real.  It seems that the Russians and the Americans have reached a "Mutual Understanding " of rules that will apply to reduce the chance of unintentional conflict in the air.

So far, this air war is being conducted with impunity from anti air warfare weapons.  In Ukraine Russia supplied it's proxy fighters with BUK air missiles which were used to shoot down a Malaysian airliner.  Neither side has introduced such weapons to the Syrian conflict, but there is always the chance that other players - Iran or even North Korea come to mind - could make mischief by introducing such weapons, or they could become available from Muslim terrorist sources in Pakistan.

The timing of the Russian intervention in Syria is masterly.  America is politically bogged down in the task of choosing contenders for the next presidential election and now is not a time for carefully considered action plans to be announced.   Inertia reigns, because whatever one side of politics suggests will be howled down by the opposition as the two great political parties battle each other - for voters minds.

The entire Middle East is a cauldron close to tipping point.  The only country to emerge from the "Arab Spring "with a stable, secular government was Tunisia.  Other countries have overthrown tyrants, only to replace them with more of the same, but with different faces.  Libya has simple degenerated into total chaos and once stable Egypt is again under a military dictatorship.

Barak Obama has been a timid American president.  On his watch American power has declined, but it's military is still the strongest in the world