This week Australia deposed it's current Prime Minister and installed Malcolm Turnbull as the new leader, giving this country the fifth leadership change in the last five years. All of these changes have a common factor that heralds just what a Prime Minister must achieve - if he or she is to retain their job. That requirement is a favourable opinion poll !
No longer will the rank and file backbench blindly follow their elected leader if that person or the party looks certain to lose office at a forthcoming election. Self preservation comes to the fore and they look for a saviour to turn around that negative opinion poll and ensure that they retain their seat - and the pay, privileges and power that goes with it.
Australia endured the Rudd, Gillard, Rudd years of Labor in power and the constant jockeying for position which went with it. Similar leadership stresses were played out in the Liberal Opposition and Malcolm Turnbull was replaced by Tony Abbott with the thin margin of a single vote deciding that issue. Consequently, Turnbull has been waiting in the wings, the "heir apparent " to replace Abbott in the event that he stumbles. This week he counted the numbers - and made his move.
Those numbers were decisive. 54/44 showed a loss of faith in Abbott's ability to turn around those very negative opinion polls - and Abbott had been given six months to restore voter's confidence when a past leadership change was mooted. Ominously, this challenge coincided precisely with the expiration of that period of grace.
The voting public will have about a year to make up their minds and all sides of politics will be closely following those opinion polls. Both Turnbull and Abbott were former Rhodes Scholars, but men of entirely different dispositions. Turnbull was successful in the business world and also a distinguished barrister who made his name defeating the British government in a high profile court action. Abbott was a man very competitive in sports - and perhaps this lacked the gravitas expected of a prime minister.
Australia's twenty-ninth new prime minister will shuffle his ministry and make policy changes. The world economic situation looks shaky and events in the Middle East and Africa are unlikely to improve in the short term. We have a housing price bubble in Australia and a slowing of the Chinese economy is decreasing our exports of coal and iron ore. Spending cuts seem inevitable, and those are always unpopular measures.
To a degree, gaining the confidence of the public depends on charisma. There is no doubt that during the Great Depression that was the factor that enabled President Franklin Roosevelt to guide America to a safe landing. In earlier times, Robert Menzies retained office for a long period because he had the confidence of the Australian people. It seems to be an instinct that convinces people that their leader has a steady hand on the tiller.
For better or worse - Australia has a new leader. In today's political world, he will live or die by the opinion polls !
No comments:
Post a Comment