The future of the United Kingdom looks less assured in the aftermath of the recent poll. Undecided voters made a last minute decision to back David Cameron's Conservative party and he gained 330 seats in the 650 seat Commons. It was an unexpected victory and completely overturned all the pre-poll predictions, but it also signals trouble ahead.
The pundits were correct in predicting that Labor would suffer a reverse in Scotland which was it's former stronghold. The Scottish National Party ( SNP ) swept away 58 of the 59 seats and will now form a significant presence in the new parliament. Their main objective is to take Scotland out of the union with England and Wales, despite a referendum as recently as September 2014 delivering a 55/45 decision to maintain the union.
It seems that the majority of Scots wish to remain a part of the EU and if David Cameron holds an "in/out " referendum as he has promised the future of Britain in the EU seems assured. What has changed seems to be the mood of the people of Scotland. This huge victory of the SNP will be interpreted as support for a new referendum on independence and as this grows in strength it will become impossible to ignore.
The days of the British Empire were made possible by a united Britain punching well above it's weight within the community of nations. That empire has now dissolved, but Britain has a seat as one of the five great powers that hold a veto within the councils of the United Nations. It is no longer the world's sole superpower, but it is a significant force both economically and militarily within the United Nations and should Scotland withdraw that presence would be diminished.
It seems certain that a decisive factor that will engage many people's minds both north and south of the border with Scotland will be the fate of Britain's fleet of Trident nuclear submarines, located at Her Majesty's Naval Base Clyde at Gare Lock in Argyle. The SNP has a platform plank that demands that HMNB Clyde be closed and that the nuclear submarines be removed from Scottish waters.
Some will question the wisdom of maintaining a relic of the cold war. The fear that the Soviet Union might deliver a first strike convinced America, Britain and France to always have submarines at sea capable of delivering a multi-warhead response to a surprise attack. Such a response seems good insurance against a newly aggressive Russia and a fast growing Chinese offensive capability.
There are serious questions whether nuclear submarines could be accommodated at Britain's commercial ports and should this nuclear deterrent be scrapped, Britain would be reduced to a lesser military power similar to Holland or Belgium. It would certainly be a blow to the British prestige image. It is possible the government might consider relocating that submarine base offshore to another Commonwealth country - if permission could be obtained. Retreating ice creates some isolated harbours in northern Canada and Australia's vast coastline offers possibilities. Bases are essentially supply depots - as the subs are constantly on patrol somewhere in the world's oceans.
The main outcome of this British election seems to be a change of mind in Scotland. The independence issue that was supposed to be settled by referendum has reignited and it seems inevitable that pressure will build to again take it to the polls - with a very probable different result forthcoming.
The world has learned that peace is impossible when a section of the community is not in harmony with belonging to the national identity of the country to which they belong. Could this be the final disintegration of the mighty British Empire ? The cohesive force that fuelled dominion over parts of the world on which the sun never set splitting at it's core and reverting to the tribes that ruled prior to when London was an outpost of Rome - in the days of Julius Caesar ?
Such is the fate of so many empires that once ruled this world !
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