Crossroads !

On July 9 the 240 million citizens of Indonesia went to the polls to elect a new president.   The choice was between two very different candidates and which one gets elected to office for the next five years will have a profound effect on Indonesia's relationship with Australia.

When Indonesia emerged from Dutch rule it's first leader- President Sukarno - was hostile and actually claimed that Australia was Indonesian territory.  There was open talk of eventual invasion and Sukarno lost office when his country had a brief civil war.   This was a Communist insurgency, and it was quickly crushed by General Suharto, who went on to be the next president.   Under his regime relations with Australia flourished, but he was a benign dictator and the Indonesian economy was beset by corruption and mismanagement, and an Islamist movement gained strength and militancy.

The fall of Suharto led to weak presidents until the present holder took office.  " SBY" as President Yudhoyono is known - was seen as an indecisive leader, but he was a good friend to Australia until a spying incident briefly cooled relations.   Happily, his presidency in this huge democratic nation is about to change hands peacefully - and by way of a plebiscite that seems fair and free from ballot stuffing.

There is a wide gulf between the two men contesting office - and there are indications that the result will be close. Counting the votes is a huge task - and a final result will not be known until the 20'th of this month.  The citizens of Indonesia will elect as their president either Joko Widowo, known as " Jokowi ", or Prabowo Subianto, a former general who was the head of Indonesias's feared " special forces ".

Jokowi is a lightweight in the experience stakes.  He served as Governor of the city of Solo with great success and later took similar control of Jakarta, the national capital.  His reign had a stellar outcome for rooting out corruption,  solving intractable problems and providing the services that former administrations had been unable to solve.   Many hope that his approach will blow a breath of fresh air through the malaise of corruption and cronyism that afflicts the Indonesian economy.

Prabowo Subianto harks back to Indonesia's military past.   He was a powerful general with a murky record of putting down dissent by the use of torture and kidnapping.  He is close to the ruling " money establishment " and is actually married to one of  former President Suharto's daughters.    His speeches reflect irritation with choosing the leadership by a democratic vote and he openly favours the country's leader being " appointed " by the legislature.  His views seem more interested in Indonesia taking it's place in the region than concern for the standards under which it's citizens live.  He has Islamist support and seems to lean towards their point of view.

If Prabowo gains the presidency it is likely that relations with Australia will be more prickly and that country's military will again control the levers of power.   Jokowi seems to have a slight edge according to exit polls and if he wins it is likely that his administration will be more concerned with internal administration than Indonesian foreign policy.   He is more likely to enhance the Indonesian standard of living and expand industry than get bogged down with external matters, but getting it right will be a big task far beyond his field of experience.

Australia can only watch - and wait !    The decision has been made by the voting strength of the Indonesian people and this vast nation and close neighbour is about to take a new course.   Which way that goes is something we will have to learn to live with.   Indonesia can be a friendly trading partner that is able to advance mutual economies - or it can become an actual threat to our way of life - and security.

We await the outcome of the vote - with more than passing interest !