Anti smoking measures are slowly winning the Tobacco " War " ! Smoking rates are declining nationally and have retreated from 22.5% of the population in 2002 - to just 14.7% in 2011. Big Tobacco is determined to retain it's grip on market share and has dropped the price of it's cheaper brands to just $ 13 for a packet of 25.
Australia instituted a world first when it legislated to force tobacco packaging to show lurid images of tobacco caused diseases and hide tobacco products out of sight on shopkeepers shelves. The impact of these changes has now worn off and pressure is building to bring in a floor price which applies to each individual cigarette offered for sale. This would go hand in hand with an increase in tobacco excise over each of the next four years - which aims to increase the price of a pack of 25 cigarettes to between $ 20 and $ 25.
It is proven that increasing prices is the main incentive causing smokers to quit. Unfortunately, Newton's Law also applies. The higher the price for legal cigarettes, the greater the sales opportunity for the smugglers who are flooding the country with " chop/chop " - loose bulk tobacco from which smokers are encouraged to " roll their own " smokes.
The government is stuck on the horns of a dilemma. Whatever it does to impede the sale of tobacco by the big national tobacco companies forces their compliance because they are legitimately registered businesses and therefore subject to Australian law, but such measures make tobacco smuggling more attractive - and lucrative - to the very people who are experienced hands at smuggling drugs into this country. Getting caught smuggling tobacco involves a far lesser penalty than smuggling drugs.
Putting a floor price on legitimate cigarettes would simply amplify the savings that can be made by switching to chop/chop - and the drug trade has clearly shown that it can run rings around law enforcement. Despite some astonishing drug busts when it comes to volume and value, even that has not even put a dent in the drug availability - or the profits that go with it.
It seems that the only recourse is to keep on with the relentless tobacco war and grind the number smoking ever lower - until they reach a low when making tobacco an illegal product can be seriously considered.
That would probably put the proverbial nail in the coffin lid for many people. It is one thing to buy a legal product from a legitimate shop, even if the price is becoming prohibitive. It is quite another to seek out a drug pusher to supply your habit, with the sure knowledge you can be charged for simply having tobacco in your possession.
That seems to be the way the tobacco war is heading. It is a moot point where the numbers still smoking will enable whoever is in government to bite the bullet - and take a final step to outlaw tobacco as a legal product - and add it to the array of illegals which form part of another " unwinnable war " !
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