Coming crisis point !

Prior to 1989 the United States and it's NATO allies kept a huge standing army in Europe in case the Soviet Union sent it's tank armies through the Fulda gap and invaded the Democratic countries of the west.  This threat never materialised - and when the Soviet Union suffered economic collapse it seemed that a kinder, gentler Russia was emerging.  The west claimed a " peace dividend " - and NATO forces reduced to a mere shadow of their former self.

Vladimir Putin is determined to recreate this former Russian empire and he has invaded and annexed the Crimea from Ukraine.   This has been rejected by most of the rest of the world, but the one thing that is conspicuously missing from the threats of retribution - is the use of military force.   It is clear that Russian military strength now outweighs that of NATO countries and with the US downsizing it's forces, military intervention is not an option.

We are now entering a new tactical situation that may play out in many ways.   The Russian economy is reliant on selling it's huge reserves of oil and natural gas to western European countries - and they have been reluctant to impose heavy sanctions because Putin controls the flow spigots.  It is likely that Europe will seek to diversify it's reliance on Russian energy, and if that succeeds it will strike a crippling blow to the Russian economic cash flow.

Putin is trying to create an economic union to rival the EU with Russia's old satellite regime countries and given the success of his Crimean adventure, he may use similar tactics of claiming to support Russian speaking citizens in surrounding regimes.   Latvia, Estonia and other now independent countries will be very nervous and it is quite possible that Russia will extend it's invasion under this pretext to absorb the entire Ukraine - if he thinks he can safely get away with it.

We should remember that Putin was on shaky ground in his home country.  Vast numbers of Russian citizens rejected his authoritarian stance and this culminated in street demonstrations.  He is now stoking the fires of nationalism and the Russian people are loudly supporting his annexation of Crimea.  It is possible he will use this strategy in the way Adolph Hitler seduced the German people with his forays into the Rhineland, Czechoslovakia and Austria.

Democracy is fast fading as the regime of Russia.   Putin is an operative of the old KGB and he has surrounded his administration with similar people.   Basically, it is morphing into a dictatorship along Soviet lines with Russia emerging as the prime military power in Europe.  It is quite possible that the future will see the world divided between two super powers - Russia and China.

We are now at a very dangerous crossroads.   If the west can summon sufficient unity and purpose it can deflect Putin from further military adventures and probably curtail the Russian economy if it diversifies it's energy needs.   Unfortunately, achieving that end pits a number of individual leaders to the task of creating solid uniformity - and that is something rarely attained amongst democracies.   In this case, it depends if the rule of democracy that we hold so dear can survive !